西部地区能源开发综合效应评价

29120071RESOURCESSCIENCEVol.29,No.1Jan.,2007:1007-7588(2007)01-0009-07:2006-04-12;:2006-10-10:(:40535026);:,,,,E2mail:xjjw2000@1631com1,1,2(11,250002;21,100101):,:,,50,,:,,;,,,70%;,,,,:;;;1(Energy)(Economy)(Environment)[15],,,;,,[6],,,[7,8],,,2,:,;(GDP),,()211,,[9],,,,,19522000,(R2=019882),,(1a1d),,,(-010033X2,1c),:,119522000Fig11Correlationanalysisbetweenenergyproductionandeconomydevelopmentfrom1952to2000:11.50,:,2000;21:2005,:,2005;31.19892002,:,2002,2090,,,50,,2060,19622000,4,,5;,3;,1125(2)212,,(R2=018711,1),,,,219622000Fig.2ComparisonofenergyconsumptionbenefitinthedifferentregionsofChinafrom1962to2000:1,,,,,,,019,,012911(X,Y)Table1TheprimaryenergyexploitationeffectofWesternChinaY=R2=-010144X2+211915X+113611019816010024X2+813011X+241199018711-010231X2+15122X+101231019147-010385X2+161086X-191455019753-011379X2+2814058X+961328019463-010371X2+271983X-341536019875-01003X2+171904X+270128019729-010059X2+121979X+711163019086-010793X2+401844X-279142019486-01027X2+161177X+411064018913010028X2+014204X+211906019552-010048X2+161677X-125165019240:1,19622000,0123,01084,19622000,1,,,2(34)213,,,,(1),,,50,,205080,,GDP1310896108(1952,),319622000Fig.3TheprimaryenergyconsumptioneffectofNorthwestChinafrom1962to2000419622000Fig.4TheprimaryenergyconsumptioneffectofSouthwestChinafrom1962to2000:190104t1540104t,2127(5a),,19852000,3116,0118,0128,(5b)(2),,,,,195211114,()11291:519522000Fig.5TheeconomyincreaseandenergyconsumptionchangeofShanxiProvincefrom1952to2000:1619522000Fig.6TheindustrystructureandprimaryenergyconsumptionchangeofWesternChinafrom1952to2000:1,01172060(1962),2,,206080,,,2080,52090,10,10,(6)313,2060013483,,:311,,21291,,,:ED=1-(RiPNAi)(1):ED;R;i;NA,ED,ED,312,(),,,,,,,,-3;-1(7)72000(=0)Fig.7ThespotpollutiondistributionofWesternChina(AverageofChinais0):1,,,,19852000,(2)219852000Table2ThespotpollutionchangeofWesternChinafrom1985to200019852000-0113101437015680181101221-01591-01407-11078-0167101484-11096-1158001855-31289-41144-01485017481123301165-01095-01260-11110-0112901981-111750130511480015910166801076-01026-11824-1179801235-21955-31189013560114201497:1313,,,,(),,(1),,,70%(8),,,()(),,19852000,1131291:82000(=0)Fig.8TheSO2pollutionofWesternChina:1(2),,,,,,200001004,(01003),,20%,,20%,(9)92000Fig.9TheCO2emissionofWesternChinain2000:14,,,,,,,;,,,(References):[1],.3E[J].,2005,(6):555558.[LIUZhi2tin,SUNFu2ping.AppraisalofcoordinateddevelopmentofareainChinabasedon3Ecoordinateddegree[J].JournalofQingdaoUniversityofScienceandTechnology,2005,(6):555558.][2],.[J].,2005,(5):9398.[XIEGAO2di,ZHOUHai2lin.CarryingcapacityofnaturalresourcesinChina[J].ChinaPopulationResourcesandEnvironment,2005,(5):9398.][3].[J].,2006,(1):3538.[ZHOUFeng2qi.EnergyandenvironmentrestrictduringChinaseconomydevelopment[J].InternationalFinancialResearch,2006,(1):3538.][4].[J].,2001,(11):1927.[XUJiu2ping.Advanceintheresearchonexploitationandutilizationofnaturalresources[J].ChinaEngineeringScience,2001,(11):1927.][5],.:[J].,2002,(3):237248.[LIli2feng,ZHENGDu.Anassessmentofregionalsustainabledevelopment:Progressandperspectives[J].ProgressInGeography,2002,(3):237248.][6].-[J].,2006,(2):188195.[ZHANGLei.Evolutionofenergy2ecosysteminWesternChina[J].JournalofNaturalResources,2006,(2):188195.][7],.[J].,2005,(5):1519.[SUNPeng,GUXiao2wei.Decompositionanalysisofchineseenergyconsumption[J].ResourcesScience,2005,(5):1519.]41291[8],.[J].,2002,(3):5760.[LIXin2yu,JIAWen2long.Resourceadvantageandwesterndevelopment[J].GeographyandTerritorialResearch,2002,(3):5760.][9],.[J].,2005,(11):1117.[ZHANGLei,CAIGuo2tian.PopulationgrowthandenergysecurityinChina[J].ChinaSoftScience,2005,(11):1117.]IntegrateAssessmentofEnergyExploitationinWesternChinaJIANGWei1,GAOWei2dong1,ZHANGLei2(11SchoolofCityDevelopment,JinanUniversity,Jinan250002,China;21InstituteofGeographicalScienceandNaturalResourcesResearch,CAS,Beijing100101,China)Abstract:Energyisthemostimportantresourceduringindustrialization.Theexploitationandtheutilizationofenergynotonlypromotetheeconomicdevelopmentbutalsogeneratesgreatpollution.Thesepolarizationeffectsmakeenergyimportantduringtheeconomicdevelopmentandtheenvironmentprotection.TheabundantenergyresourceofWesternChinahasmadegreatcontributiontothelocaldevelopment.ThispaperappraisedtheenergyexploitationeffectofWesternChina.Theeconomiceffectanalysisofenergyexploitationindicatesthat:theeconomicdevelopmentofWesternChinaisstillintheelementarystageofindustrialization,sotheimportanceofenergyindustrytothelocaleconomicdevelopmentinWesternChinaismoresignificantthaninEasternandMiddleChina.ThecorrelationsbetweeneconomyandenergyconsumptionofEastern,MiddleandWesternChinais019288,019826and019882,respectively.Intheviewofenergyconsumptionbenefitinthreebelts,theeconomicoutputpertonstandardcoalincreased4timesfrom1962to2000,amongwhichtheincreaseofEasternChinaismostapparentandtheoutputenhancesmorethan5times,buttheoutputofWesternChinaonlyenhances1125times.ThemainreasonisWesternChinasprimordialindustrystructurewastedmoreenergy,forexample,theindustrystructureindexof11westernprovinceswasonlyabout114in195