西宁旅游气候舒适度与客流量变化相关性分析及启示

封面青海大学财经学院旅游管理系Ⅰ青海大学财经学院毕业论文题目：西宁市旅游气候舒适度与客流量变化相关性分析及启示学生姓名：杨东波指导教师：陈金林专业年级：05级旅游管理本科班所在学院和系：青海大学财经学院旅游管理系完成日期：2009年6月3日答辩日期：2009年6月9日2西宁旅游气候舒适度与客流量变化相关性分析及启示摘要利用统计数据和相关基础理论知识，分析出西宁市国内﹑境外旅游市场所呈现不同的特点、西宁市旅游需求的季节性。从旅游目的地的角度出发，指出气候因素是影响西宁市旅游需求呈现很强季节性的原因。以气候舒适度为指标对西宁市旅游气候进行评价，得出西宁市不同月份旅游的适宜性，解释国内﹑境外旅游需求差异的原因，定量分析西宁市旅游气候舒适度与客流量之间的相关关系。结果显示：西宁市的旅游气候舒适度与客流量之间的确存在一定弹性关系。综合上述分析结果，提出应对西宁旅游需求季节性的几点建议。关键词：旅游需求，季节性，气候舒适度，客流量ABSTRACT青海大学财经学院旅游管理系IIANANALYSISOFTOURISTCLIMATECONFORTABLEDEGREEANDVARIATIONOFTOURISTTRAFFICINXININGANDENLIGHTENMENTABSTRACTThepaper,usingstatisticaldataandrelatedknowledgeofbasictheory,analysestheseasonalcharacteristicsofinboundtourism,domestictourismdemandinXiningcity.Fromtheperspectiveofatouristdestination,itpointsoutthatclimatefactorsaffectthetourismdemandinXiningcitytohaveastrongseasonalcharacteristic.Asaindictor,climatecomfortabledegreeisusedtoevaluatetheclimateofXiningcity.ItcomesouttourismsuitabilityofXiningcityindifferentmonths,whichcanexplainthereasonofthedifferencebetweeninboundtourismanddomestictourism.Basedonthese,thispapermakesaquantitativeanalysisoftouristclimatecomfortabledegreeandandpassengertrafficbetweenrelationship.Theresultsshowethat:XiningCitytourismclimatebetweenpassengercomfortandacertainflexibilityintherelationshipdoesexist.TheaboveresultsoftheanalysisputforwardtodealwithseasonaltourismdemandinXiningcity.Keywords:tourismdemand,seasonal,climatecomfortdegree,traffic目录青海大学财经学院旅游管理系Ⅲ目录1.绪论........................................................................................................................................................-1-1.1选题的意义.........................................................................................................................................-1-1.2研究思路与研究方法..........................................................................................................................-1-1.3国内外研究状况.................................................................................................................................-2-2.西宁市旅游客流量变化特征分析.........................................................................................................-3-2.1西宁市旅游客流量分析......................................................................................................................-3-2.1.1西宁市旅游客流量年内变化图示分析............................................................................................-3-2.1.2西宁市旅游客流量年内变化的数字分析........................................................................................-4-2.2西宁市旅游需求的季节性分析..........................................................................................................-4-2.3西宁市旅游需求的季节性原因分析..................................................................................................-5-3.西宁市旅游气候舒适度分析.................................................................................................................-6-3.1旅游气候舒适度的概念与评价方法..................................................................................................-6-3.1.1舒适指数和风效指数......................................................................................................................-6-3.1.2.旅游气候适宜性等级评价.............................................................................................................-6-3.2西宁旅游气候的舒适度评价..............................................................................................................-7-4.气候舒适度与客流量变化相关性分析.................................................................................................-9-4.1气候舒适度指数和其他因素的数值设定..........................................................................................-9-4.2客流量变化与气候舒适度的相关性分析..........................................................................................-9-4.3结果与评价.........................................................................................................................................-9-5.启示......................................................................................................................................................-10-5.1转变思维观念，开展反季节旅游....................................................................................................-10-5.2提高旺季旅游服务质量....................................................................................................................-10-5.3挖掘旅游产品文化内涵....................................................................................................................-11-5.4加强自身形象建设，做好旅游营销工作........................................................................................-11-参考文献..................................................................................................................................................-12-致谢..........................................................................................................................................................-13-绪论青海大学财经学院旅游管理系-1-1.绪论1.1选题的意义随着全球气候变暖，气候变化对旅游业的影响受到了不同国家、不同地区的关注。一方面，全球变暖和气候异常已经成为威胁生态系统、破坏旅游名胜的最大凶手。另一方面，旅游业对全球气候变暖也产生重要影响，是制造温室气体的大户，整个行业产