电动汽车充电站建设及运营成本合作博弈分析

摘要我国正面临着原煤、石油、天然气等一次能源紧缺和生态环境污染的窘境，新能源产业的发展是响应时代的需要，其中新能源汽车产业是其中重要一角。而电动汽车充电基础设施作为新能源汽车产业链中的重要一环，直接影响新能源汽车消费者的使用，进而影响研发、生产和销售等各个环节，如若电动汽车基础设施没有得到普及推广，最后将制约整个新能源汽车产业的发展，也将不利于构建生态和谐、能源富足的国家、社会。本文将针对充电基础设施建设过程中的成本问题进行研究，参考国内外充电基础设施发展状况，以PPP模式角度和合作博弈论的思想研究分析以充电站为例的电动汽车充电基础设施的建设及运营的成本分摊问题，为今后充电站等电动汽车充电基础设施的成本分摊作参考，也为此提供充电基础设施建设及运营的成本分摊方法，促进电动汽车充电基础设施的建设和新能源汽车的推广。关键词：充电基础设施，PPP模式，Shapley值模型注：本论文题目来源于教师的广州市哲学社会科学“十二五”规划课题，项目编号为14Y28。AbstractOurcountryisfacingthedilemmaofcoal,oil,naturalgasandotherprimaryenergyshortageandenvironmentalpollution,thedevelopmentofnewenergyindustryisrespondedtothetimes,thenewenergyautomotiveindustryisoneimportantangle.Andelectricvehiclecharginginfrastructureasanimportantpartofthenewenergyautomotiveindustrychain,hasadirectimpactontheuseofnewenergyautomotiveconsumers,therebyaffectingallaspectsofthedevelopment,productionandsales,iftheelectriccarinfrastructuredidn'tgetpopularization,thesystemaboutthenewenergyautomotiveindustrydevelopment,willalsonotconducivetothebuildingofaharmoniousecology,energyrichcountryandsociety.Soinordertobetterspreadthecharginginfrastructureconstructionofourcountry.Inthispaper,thecostforcharginginfrastructureintheprocessofresearch,referencetodomesticandforeigncharginginfrastructuredevelopment,withPPPmodeandCo-operativegametheorytoresearchandanalyzethechargestationforcasesofelectricvehiclecharginginfrastructureconstructionandoperationcostallocationproblem,forfuturechargingstationofelectricvehiclecharginginfrastructurecostsharingforreference,andforcharginginfrastructureconstructionandoperationcostallocationmethod,topromotetheconstructionofelectricvehiclecharginginfrastructureandnewenergyvehicle.Keywords:Charginginfrastructure,PPPmode,Shapleyvalue目录第1章绪论....................................................................................................................11.1题目研究背景及意义....................................................................................11.2国内外研究现状............................................................................................31.2.1国内外电动汽车充电基础设施研究现状..............................................31.2.2基础设施领域中的PPP模式及合作博弈研究现状.............................41.3研究内容及思路............................................................................................5第2章PPP模式的介绍及分析................................................................................72.1国内外电动汽车充电基础设施发展现状....................................................72.1.1国外电动汽车充电基础设施发展现状..................................................72.1.2国内电动汽车充电基础设施发展现状..................................................82.1.3我国主要城市的电动汽车充电基础设施建设及运营现状举例..........92.2PPP模式介绍..................................................................................................132.2.1PPP模式基本内涵.................................................................................132.2.2PPP与BOT差异分析...........................................................................142.2.3PPP模式分类.........................................................................................152.2.4PPP模式下充电基础设施建设的优势.................................................17第3章PPP模式下充电站成本分摊Shapley值模型............................................193.1基于生命周期的充电站成本研究..............................................................193.1.1生命周期理论介绍................................................................................193.1.2充电站生命周期划分............................................................................193.2问题描述与模型选择..................................................................................233.2.1合作博弈方法及Shapley值介绍.........................................................233.2.2模型选择................................................................................................253.3问题建模......................................................................................................303.4本章小结......................................................................................................32第4章电动汽车充电站建设及运营成本分摊算例..................................................334.1成本分析与整合..........................................................................................334.2数据来源及筛选..........................................................................................334.3算例与分析..................................................................................................344.4本章小结......................................................................................................35结论与展望......................................................................................................................36参考文献..........................................................................................................................38致谢..................................................................................................................................411第1章绪论1.1题目研究背景及意义根据国务院关于印发《能源发展“十二五”规划》的通知，高效、清洁、低碳已经成为世界能源发展的主流方向，非化石能源和天然气在能源结构中的比重越来越大，世界能源将逐步跨入石油、天然气、煤炭、可再生能源和核能并驾齐驱的新时代。我国能源资源短缺，常规化石能源可持续供应能力不足。油气人均剩余可采储量仅为世界平均水平的6%，