电动汽车充电站建设项目群风险研究

电动汽车充电站建设项目群风险研究重庆大学硕士学位论文学生姓名：刘焕指导教师：任玉珑教授专业：技术经济及管理学科门类：管理学重庆大学经济与工商管理学院二OO九年十月StudyontheRiskofConstructionProjectsintheElectricVehicleChargingStationsAThesisSubmittedtoChongqingUniversityinPartialFulfillmentoftheRequirementfortheDegreeofMasterofManagementByLiuHuanSupervisedbyProf.RenYulongMajor:TechnologicalEconomics&ManagementCollegeofEconomicsandBusinessAdministrationofChongqingUniversity,Chongqing,ChinaOctober,2009摘要面对日益加剧的能源危机和环境问题，国内外政府及主要汽车厂商不约而同的把目光投向了电动汽车领域，电动汽车产业在未来几十年将有广阔的发展空间。充电站作为电动汽车的能源供给系统，对产业发展具有重要影响。但是，当前充电站的建设规模远远落后于电动汽车产业化的发展需求，各国政府均意识到这将是制约电动汽车产业发展的主要“瓶颈”之一，并为此颁布了各种刺激计划。充电站这一新生事物自身技术还不完善，建设标准还不规范，而且作为一个多项目组成的项目群，还受到项目内部不确定性的影响，因此有必要对充电站建设展开相关研究，以求在进行充电站建设的过程中合理规划、科学布局、规避风险。本文从项目群风险管理的角度出发，运用情景分析法对充电站进行需求情景分析，在此基础上将项目群风险管理理念引入电动汽车充电站建设中去，运用主观与客观相结合、定性与定量相结合的方法构建多级模糊综合评价模型，对我国当前电动汽车充电站建设项目群的总体风险进行了分析与探讨，其主要内容如下：1、梳理总结国内外项目群管理、风险管理基本理论，分析国内外项目群管理及风险管理的现状，将情景分析引入需求预测，探讨充电站需求产生机制，描述不同情景下充电站的需求数量，为电动汽车充电站建设进行风险管理提供依据。2、主客结合分析风险，通过实地考察、走访专家对充电站建设的风险因素进行主观分析，借助统计学软件SPSS17.0运用主成分分析法（客观分析）提取出5大类共28个主要风险因素，构建电动汽车充电站建设项目群综合评价指标体系。3、通过调研，运用AHP法（层次分析法）计算各级综合评价指标权重，分析不同因子对总体风险的影响程度，在FCE（多级模糊综合评价模型）下定量研究当前充电站建设项目群的风险状况。4、结合分析结果将全寿命周期理论应用到风险预防、风险缓解、风险转移、风险自留、风险后备五个方面，提出基于全寿命周期的风险应对策略，并根据充电站建设项目群的特征指出各种风险防范策略下的具体措施。论文重点研究了项目群风险管理的理论与方法，结合充电站建设特点提出了适合其应用的风险管理指标体系及综合评价方法，通过实例验证表明了该方法的可行性和有效性，希望能为电动汽车充电站建设提供一定的参考。关键词：充电站，风险评价体系，层次分析法，多级模糊综合评价ABSTRACTFacedwithgrowingenergycrisisandenvironmentalproblems,Governmentandmajorautomobilemanufacturersathomeandabroadlookthesameatthefieldofelectricvehicles,electricvehicleindustrywillhaveabroadspacefordevelopmentinthecomingdecades.Asenergysupplysystemofelectricvehicles,chargingstationforelectricvehicleshasanimportantimpactontheindustrialdevelopment.Asanewthing,chargingstationisnotperfect,constructionstandardsisirregular,anditisalsosubjecttotheimpactofprojectinternaluncertaintyasaprojectconstitutedwithmulti-projectgroup,therefore,itisnecessarytostartresearchonthebuildingofbatterychargingstationinordertoplanrationally,layoutscientificallyandavoidrisksintheprocessofchargingstationbuilding.Fromtheperspectiveofprojectgroup’sriskmanagement,thispaperdiscussedhowtointroducetheconceptofprojectgroupriskmanagementtochargingstationbuildingofelectricvehicles,andusedthemethodsofcombinationofsubjectiveandobjective,qualitativeandquantitativetobuildmulti-levelfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmodeltoanalyzeanddiscussourcurrentoverallriskofelectricvehicle’schargingstationconstructionprojectgroup.Maincontentsarefollowing:1.Thispapersummedupthebasictheoryoftheprojectgroupmanagementandriskmanagementathomeandabroad,andproposedtheprojectgrouplife-cycleintegratedriskmanagementmodel,itfurtherenrichedthesystemofprojectgroupriskmanagement,andprovidedabasisforriskmanagementofelectricvehiclechargingstationsbuilding.2.Toanalyzeriskthroughcombinationofsubjectiveandobjective.Thepapersubjectivelyanalyzedtheriskfactorsofthechargingstationconstructionthroughvisitingfieldandexperts.UsingstatisticalsoftwareSPSS17.0andthemethodofPCA(PrincipalComponentAnalysis),thepaperextractedatotalof28majorriskfactorsfor5categoriesandconstructedacomprehensiveevaluationindexsystemforelectricvehicle’schargingstationbuildingprojectgroup.3.Throughresearchingexperts,thepaperusedthemethodofAHPtocalculatetheweightsofcomprehensiveevaluationindexatalllevelsandanalyzedtheimpactdegreeofdifferentindicatorsontheoverallrisk.BasedonFCE(multi-levelfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmodel),thepaperquantitativelystudiedthecurrentriskSituationofchargingstationconstructionprojectgroup.4.Combiningtheresultsoftheanalysis,thepaperbroughtforwardriskcopingstrategiesfromfiveaspects:riskprevention,riskmitigation,risktransfer,riskretention,andriskreserve,andbuiltriskresponsesystemcombinationwiththecharacteristicsofchargingstationbuildingprojectsgroup.ThePaperfocusedonthetheoryandmethodofprojectgroupriskmanagement,combiningthecharacteristicsofchargingstationbuilding,itapproachedriskmanagementandcomprehensiveevaluationindexsystem,andmadeexamplestoshowthefeasibilityandeffectivenessofthemethod,wehopedthatthepapercouldprovidesomereferencesforelectricvehiclechargingstationbuilding.KeyWords:ChargingStations,RiskEvaluationSystem,AnalyticHierarchyProcess,FuzzyComprehensiveEvaluation目录摘要........................................................................................................................IVABSTRACT....................................................................................................................V1绪论..........................................................................................................................11.1研究背景及意义....................................................................................................11.2国内外研究现状....................................................................................................21.2.1国外项目风险管理研究现状.........................................................................21.2.2国内项目风险管理研究现状.........................................................................41.3论文的主要内容与基本框架......