第一场 2013年触控面板产业趋势及市场展望 吴善同

吳善同,資深產業分析師[e-mail].26.20122013年觸控面板產業趨勢及市場展望Feb.26.2013Copyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.大綱•全球觸控面板市場展望(2011~2016)•主要應用產品發展趨勢及議題•投射式電容觸控面板結構別競爭態勢預估2Copyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.大綱•全球觸控面板市場展望(2011~2016)•主要應用產品觸控面板滲透率•主要應用產品投射式電容觸控面板滲透率•觸控面板市場規模展望•觸控面板市場技術別市占率展望•主要應用產品發展趨勢及議題•投射式電容觸控面板結構別競爭態勢預估3Copyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.主要應用產品觸控面板滲透率4Source:TouchPanelIssueandCost/IndustryAnalysis2013,IHSDisplaybankCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.主要應用產品投射式電容觸控面板滲透率5Source:TouchPanelIssueandCost/IndustryAnalysis2013,IHSDisplaybankCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.觸控面板市場規模展望6(Mil.Unit)201120122013(f)2014(f)2015(f)2016(f)CAGRS/M955.11,332.61,766.72,073.72,371.62,636.822.5%Large12.416.440.972.390.7116.056.4%Total967.51,348.91,807.62,146.02,462.22,752.923.3%S/MY/YGrowthRate57.8%39.5%32.6%17.4%14.4%11.2%LargeY/YGrowthRate117.5%32.0%149.9%76.9%25.3%28.0%TotalY/YGrowthRate58.3%39.4%34.0%18.7%14.7%11.8%TouchPanelMarketForecast(Volume)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000201120122013(f)2014(f)2015(f)2016(f)TotalTotalY/YGrowthRateSource:TouchPanelIssueandCost/IndustryAnalysis2013,IHSDisplaybankCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.觸控面板市場技術別市占率展望7觸控面板技術別市占率變化–出貨量觸控面板技術別市占率變化–產值Source:TouchPanelIssueandCost/IndustryAnalysis2013,IHSDisplaybankCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.大綱•主要應用產品發展趨勢及議題•多種結構的投射式觸控面板相互爭鳴•朝向四大區塊發展的平板電腦市場•平板電腦市場競爭逐漸提升•中國大陸超低價平板電腦市場值得觀察•主要平板電腦廠商之觸控面板採用變化•智慧型手機市場前兩大廠商擴大市場影響力•智慧型手機款數逐漸減少•主要智慧型手機廠商之觸控面板採用變化•來勢洶洶的嵌入式觸控面板•G2觸控面板亟需改善製程及良率•單層ITO觸控面板發展值得期待•觸控筆記型電腦隨Windows8面市•筆記型電腦用G2觸控面板產能不足促使上下游合作•2013年觸控筆記型電腦規格變化8Copyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.多種結構的投射式觸控面板相互爭鳴9Source:TouchPanelIssueandCost/IndustryAnalysis2013,IHSDisplaybankCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.朝向四大區塊發展的平板電腦市場10Source:TouchPanelIssueandCost/IndustryAnalysis2013,IHSDisplaybankCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.平板電腦市場競爭逐漸提升11HHI:6185HHI:3677HHI:3921HHI(Herfindahl-HirschmanIndex)Source:WorldwideTabletMarketTracker,IHSiSuppliCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.中國大陸超低價平板電腦市場值得觀察12CompanyHKCOndaAinolHKCOndaTeclastOndaLenovoModelNameM702VX610WNOVO7M701Vi10P75aVI20WLePadA1Price(CNY)399399499499529568699899Price(USD)63.363.379.279.283.990.1110.9142.6DisplayDisplaySize77777777Resolution800×480800×480800×480800×480800x480800x480800x6001024x600TouchN/A2pointsResistive5pointsPROCAPN/A5pointsPROCAP5pointsPROCAP5pointsPROCAPN/AOSAndroid2.3Android2.3Android2.3Android2.3Android2.3Android2.3Android2.3Android2.3IC/MemoryAP1.5GHz1.5GHz1GHz1.5GHz1.5GHz1.5GHz1.5GHz1GHzAPmodelnameAllWinnerA10AllWinnerA10IngenicJZ4770AllWinnerA10AllWinnerA13AllWinnerA13AllWinnerA10TIOMAP3622DRAM512MB512MB512MB512MB512MB512MB512MB512MBMemory8GB8GB8GB8GB8GB8GB8GB2GBNetworkWiFiWiFiWiFiWiFiWiFiWiFiWiFiWiFiPMMACoverLens5-PointMultiTouchSwimmingPoolCaseChinaAP/ControlICMakersSource:CompanyData,May2012Copyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.主要平板電腦廠商之觸控面板採用變化13Source:TouchPanelIssueandCost/IndustryAnalysis2013,IHSDisplaybankCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.智慧型手機市場前兩大廠商擴大市場影響力14HHI(Herfindahl-HirschmanIndex)Source:WorldwideMobileHandsetMarketTracker,IHSiSuppliCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.智慧型手機款數逐漸減少15•智慧手機廠商每年新發表的產品款數，在2011年達到顛峰之後從2012年起大幅減少•減少新產品款數，不僅可以降低研發成本，更可以有效控管庫存成本以降低財務負擔，也可提升對觸控面板廠商的議價能力•對觸控面板產業而言，款數的減少不僅會提高對特定客戶的依賴度，觸控面板的技術發展也很容易受特定廠商的態度，因而失去主導能力Copyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.主要智慧型手機廠商之觸控面板採用變化16Source:TouchPanelIssueandCost/IndustryAnalysis2013,IHSDisplaybankCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.來勢洶洶的嵌入式觸控面板17Source:TouchPanelIssueandCost/IndustryAnalysis2013,IHSDisplaybankCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.G2觸控面板亟需改善製程及良率18小片式(cell)G2觸控面板製程大片式(sheet)G2觸控面板製程大片式(Sheet)G2觸控面板的強度及良率瓶頸Source:CapacitiveTouchPanelCoverGlassProcessingTechnology,ManufacturingProcess,andMarketForecast,IHSDisplaybankCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.單層ITO觸控面板發展值得期待19PointBarHybridNo.ofchannelX*YY*2X+YMethodofdrivingSelfSelfMutualMultiTouchMulti(5-point)SingleMulti(5-point)GGG2G1GFFG1FGF1Source:LGDisplay三種單層ITO觸控面板雙層ITO觸控面板超單層ITO演進Source:TouchPanelIssueandCost/IndustryAnalysis2013,IHSDisplaybankCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.觸控筆記型電腦隨Windows8面市20UltrabookSpecificationsPlatformHuronRiverChiefRiverSharkBayReleasedateOct2011June20122Q2013(expected)ProcessorSandyBridgeIvyBridgeHaswellHeight(maximum)•18mmfor13.3andsmallerdisplays•21mmfor14.0andlargerdisplays•18mmfor13.3andsmallerdisplays•21mmfor14.0andlargerdisplays•23mmforconvertibletablets•18mmfor13.3andsmallerdisplays•21mmfor14.0andlargerdisplays•23mmforconvertibletabletsSource:IntelCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.筆記型電腦用G2觸控面板產能不足促使上下游合作21GenerationWidth(mm)Length(mm)10.111.612.113.314.0”15.6”G3550650666332G3.5620750968664G4680880998864G4.573092010910886G511001300282024241812G5.513001500403032242416G613001500604248363625玻璃基板世代別G2觸控面板切割片數觸控面板感測器與模組廠商的合作Source:TouchPanelIssueandCost/IndustryAnalysis2013,IHSDisplaybankCopyright©2012IHSInc.AllRightsReserved.2013年觸控筆記型電腦規格變化22Source:TouchPanelIssueandCost/IndustryAnalysis2013,IHSDisplaybankCopyright©2