5 中国煤制天然气发展展望

2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011亚化咨询ASIACHEMConsulting2011.1BeijingChinaCoaltoSNGDevelopmentOutlook中国煤制天然气发展展望2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011当今之中国…What’sthecurrentChina…?2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011概览Overview†Upto2010,ChinabecomesthesecondlargesteconomyfollowingUSA,overJapan.GDP:USD3700percapita,withtotal1.4billionpeopleGDP.以经济总量衡量，中国已经成为世界第二大国。†FollowingUSA,Chinaisthesecondlargestenergyconsumer,whilemorethan50%oilimport.中国能源消费量仅次于美国，列世界第二。†Chinahas114.5billiontoncoalreserves,rankedNo.3worldwide,whilethecrudeoilandnaturalgasreservesarelimited.中国煤炭储量世界第三。†Chinastillhastheboomingeconomy,whichisregulatedbythemostpowerfulcentralgovernment,andstronglydrivenbylocalgovernment.经济发展受强力的中央政府规划和调控，GDP是地方政府重要考核指标。†Chinahasbecomethelargestautomobilemarket,liquidfueldemandisstillbooming.2010年，中国汽车生产、销售量均超过1800万辆。已经变成世界上最大的汽车市场，车用液体燃料需求强劲。†OvertheUSA,ChinaisthelargestCO2emitter,cleancoalconversion,energysaving&emissionreductionareconcerned.中国是世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国，节能减排，洁净煤转化收到政府关注。†Chinaisthelargestemergingmarket,thehugecleanenergydemandisdrivenbyurbanization,Chinatotalnaturalgaswillreach105.1billionNM3andtheshortagewillbe12.1billionNM3.作为最大的人口国和新兴市场，城市化进程对清洁能源需求巨大，2010年全年表观消费量将达1051亿立方米，供需缺口将达121亿立方米。2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011提纲Content†中国未来化石能源供应„China’sFossilEnergySupplyintheFuture†煤制天然气在新型煤化工的地位„ThePositionofSNGinModernCoalChemical†总结与展望„Conclusion&Outlook2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011FossilenergyreservesinChinaCrudeOil5.4%NaturalGasCoal94%Forreserves,ChinaisshortofCrudeoilandnaturalgas,whilerelativelyrichofcoal.2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011WhathappenedinChina?†伴随着经济的持续增长，中国的能源消费与石油对外依存度不断上升。自1993年起，中国的石油进口量首次超过了出口量，成为石油净进口国。到2009年，我国原油进口超过2亿吨，对外依存度超过50%。„Alongwiththesustainedeconomicgrowth,China’senergydemandanddependencyonforeignoilsupplyareincreasingcontinuously.Chinahasbecomenetoilimportersince1993whentheoilimportexceededexportfirsttime.In2009,Chinaimportedover200Mtofcrudeoil,reflectingaforeigndependencyofmorethan50%.†2010年全年我国天然气产量为930亿立方米，而表观消费量将达1051亿立方米，供需缺口将达121亿立方米。„Thewholeyeardomesticoutputof2010ispredictedtobe93bnNm3against105.1bnNm3ofapparentconsumptiontoresultinagapof12.1bnNm3.2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011WhatwillhappeninChina?†要实现经济的持续稳定增长，确保稳定的能源供应是最为重要的前提条件。„Tosecureastablesupplyofenergyisthemostimportantpreconditiontorealizesustainableandsteadygrowthofeconomy.†国家能源局预计，到2020年中国石油需求量将达到6亿吨。其中国内产量将保持在2亿吨左右，进口量将达到4亿吨，对外依存度约67%。„AspredictedbytheNationalEnergyAdministration,China’soildemandmayapproach600Mtby2020and,ifdomesticoiloutputismaintainedaround200Mt,Chinaneedtoimport400Mtofcrudeoiltofillthegaporshowingaforeigndependencyaround67%.†中石油人士预计，我国天然气市场需求2020年将达到3500-4000亿立方米。„AseparatepredictionmadebyPetroChinareportedChinesegasdemandmayapproachtoamarketsizeof350-400bnNm3bytheyearof2020.2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011主要的天然气贸易流向MajorNaturalGasTradesSource:BP20102ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011进口天然气的几种方式DifferentWaysofImportedNaturalGasfromOverseas†LNG液化天然气†Pipeline管道天然气†ChemicalConversion化学转化„GTL(gastoliquids)天然气合成油„Methanol甲醇2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011Chinatobuild4Oil&Passagestosecureenergysupply中国四大油气通道2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011提纲Content†中国未来化石能源供应„China’sFossilEnergySupplyintheFuture†煤制天然气在新型煤化工的地位„ThePositionofSNGinModernCoalChemical†总结与展望„Conclusion&Outlook2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM20112ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011中国煤化工政策回顾ChinaCoalChemicalPolicyReview†2008年9月，国家发改委发布《关于加强煤制油项目管理有关问题的通知》„要求除神华鄂尔多斯项目和神华宁煤-沙索宁夏项目外，一律停止实施其他煤制油项目。†InSep.2008,NDRCreleasedthenoticeofAboutthestrengtheningofCTLprojectmanagement„TostopallCTLindustrialprojectsexceptShenhuaDCTLinOrdosInnerMongoliaandtheproposedShenhuaNingmei-SasolICTLjvinYinchuan,Ningxia2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011中国煤化工政策回顾ChinaCoalChemicalPolicyReview†2009年5月，国务院办公厅下发《石化产业调整和振兴规划细则》，规划期为2009-2011年。„重点抓好现有煤制油、煤制烯烃、煤制二甲醚、煤制甲烷气、煤制乙二醇等五类示范工程†InMay2009,StateCouncilreleasedPetrochemicalStimulusPackageduring2009-2011„5moderncoalchemicaldemonstrations:CTL,CTO,DME,SNGandCoal-toMEG2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011中国煤化工政策回顾ChinaCoalChemicalPolicyReview†2010年6月，国家发展改革委关于规范煤制天然气产业发展有关事项的通知。概括起来有三方面内容:„第一，煤制天然气必须在国家能源规划指导下统筹考虑、合理布局；„第三，煤制天然气要落实和天然气管网以及市场衔接；„第二，煤制天然气项目要国家发展改革委统一核准；†InJun.2010,NDRCreleasedtheregulationonCoal-to-SNG„SNGneedguideofgovernment„SNGneedtocoordinatewithpipelineandmarket„SNGmustapprovedbyNDRC2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM20112ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011煤化工示范项目特点FeaturesofCoalChemicalDemonstrations项目投资Investment市场特点MarketFeatures市场前景ProductOutlook受管制Regulated较好Good较好Good较好Good较好Good不好Bad不受管制Non-regulated受管制Regulated不受管制Non-regulated难进入Difficulttoentry当前挑战Challenges煤制油CTL大Large工业化&分销制约/Commercialization&Distributionlimits煤制烯烃CTO大Large技术的工业化Commercialization煤制合成天然气SNG大Large定价/运输制约Pricing/Transportation煤制乙二醇MEG较小Small技术的工业化Commercialization煤制二甲醚DME较小Small政策/市场壁垒Policy/MarketBarriers2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011提纲Content†中国未来化石能源供应„China’sFossilEnergySupplyintheFuture†煤制天然气在新型煤化工的地位„ThePositionofSNGinModernCoalChemical†总结与展望„Conclusion&Outlook2ndCoaltoSNGChina2011©ASIACHEM2011WhatwillhappeninCh