全球化Defining Globalization

Lecture1:I.Introduction1.Definingglobalization–What’snew?2.Anti-vs.Pro-globalization3.Critics–Reply4.Whathavewelearned?2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-0621.Globalization–what’sreallynew?Differentcause:WorldismoreinterdependentthaneverPreviousEraofGlobalizationFailingtransportcost:railroad;steamship;automobileCurrentEraofGlobalizationFallingtelecommCost:microchips;satellites;fiberoptics;Internet2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-063Figure1:DecliningCostofTransportationandCommunication:1920-1990athree-minutecall)betweenNewYorkandLondoncost$250in1930.--TheEconomist(in1996dollars2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-064YearSea(a)Air(b)PhoneCall(c)Computers(d)192095---1930600.68245-1940630.46189-1950340.3053-1960270.244612,5001970270.16321,9471980240.1053621990290.113100(a)averageoceanfreightandportchargesperton($US)(b)averagerevenueperpassengermile($US)(c)3minutesNY/London($US)(d)index,1990=100Source:IMFTable12020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-065Shapeoftheworld’seconomyisbeingchangedby“globalization”•Decliningcostsofcommunicationandcontrolareenablingoutsourcing/FDI–fashion-consciousU.S.apparelproducerstooutsourceproductiontoSaipanandShanghai;–U.S.softwarefirmstooutsourceprogrammingproblemstoHaifaandBangalore.Prof.BarryEichengreen,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-066Shapeoftheworld’seconomyisbeingchangedby“globalization”•Marketing,•Branding,•AdvertisingDellNike•Costdown•Outsourcing製造品牌研發2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-0671.Globalization–what’sreallynew?NewTradeandProductionPatterns•Newtradepattern:developingcountries–don'tjusthavetotradetheirrawmaterialstotheWestandgetfinishedproductsinreturn;–canbecomebig-timeproducersaswell.•Newproductionpattern:globalproductnetwork–companiescanlocatedifferentpartsoftheirproduction,researchandmarketingindifferentcountries2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-068Table2Growthofmanufacturingproductioninnewlyindustrialisingcountries,1963-2002a1994;b1995;c1996;d1998Source:Dicken(1998,Table2.3;2003,Table3.6);UNIDO(2004)WorldDevelopmentIndicators04.TheWorldBank,Washington,Table4.1.2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-0691.Globalization–what’sreallynew?Newmarkets•Growingglobalmarketsinservicespeoplecannowofferandtradeservicesglobally--frommedicaladvicetosoftwarewritingtodataprocessing--thatcouldneverreallybetradedbefore.UStaxpayersUSTaxservicecompanyW-2,W-4,1099bonuses&stockstatementsTaxcalculationIndiaaccountant2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-06101.Globalization–what’sreallynew?Newrulesandnorms•Marketeconomicpoliciesspreadingaroundtheworld,withgreaterprivatizationandliberalizationthaninearlierdecades.ex:BRIC•Widespreadadoptionofdemocracyasthechoiceofpoliticalregime.ex:Mozambiquein1989,gaveupMarxism,newConstitutionwithelection2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-06111.Globalization–what’sreallynew?Newrulesandnorms•Multilateralagreementsintrade,takingonsuchnewagendasasenvironmentalandsocialconditions.•Newmultilateralagreements–forservices,intellectualproperty,communications–morebindingonnationalgovernmentsthananypreviousagreements.Lecture1:I.Introduction1.Definingglobalization–What’snew?2.Anti-vs.Pro-globalization3.Critics–Reply4.Whathavewelearned?2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-06132.Anti-GlobalizationMovement•Pre1995:developedcountries–CompetitionfromJapan(TOYOTAvs.GM)–Importsfromlowwagecountries–effectonwagesandunemploymentofunskilledlabor•Post1995:developingcountriesWorldtradeharmworkers–Lowwages–Workingconditions–Enemy:WTO,IMF,WorldBank2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-06142.Pro-FreeTradeEconomistsinEarly1980s•Distinguishedeconomistsshowedcompellingevidencethatoutward-orientedtradepolicieswerefarmorelikelythanprotectionismtoleadtoeconomicgrowth.(ex:JamaicaandpoorLA)•Theevidencewascontainedintwomulti-countryresearchprojectsatthe–OrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD),ledbyIanLittleandothers,–NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,directedbyJagdishBhagwatiandAnneKrueger-andinaseriesofstudiesattheWorldBank.2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-06152.RecentAdvocatesofGlobalization•Bhagwati:InDefenseofGlobalization–strikinglysuccessfuldefenseofopenmarkets•MartinWolf:WhyGlobalizationWorks–weeklycolumnsintheFinancialTimes–world'smostrespectedeconomicjournalists.•ArvindPanagariya:“TheMiraclesofGlobalization:AReviewofWhyGlobalizationWorks”,ForeignAffairs,September/October2004Lecture1:I.Introduction1.Definingglobalization–What’snew?2.Anti-vs.Pro-globalization3.Critics–Reply4.Whathavewelearned?2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-06173.CriticsofGlobalizationI:Trade•Opennesstotradeduringthe1980sand1990sfailedtodeliverfastergrowth;e.g.,someLatinAmericancountries–Lowwages(andbadworkingconditions)ofworkersindevelopingcountries’exportindustriesNothelpfulforworkers2020/1/18GlobalizingEconomy-06183.ReplytotheCriticsIIsthecritiquereasonable?•Notintheeconomicsense–Ricardianmodel–comparativeadvantages•Whydodevelopingcountrieshavecostadvantages?–Laborstandards,environmentalpolicy•WolfpointstothecontraryexperiencesofChinaandIndia.–Bothcountrieswitnessedsignificantjumpsintheirgrowthratesastheyopeneduptheireconomiestointernation