上海2010世博会项目群管理

上海2010世博会项目群数字可视化管理吴志强上海2010世博会项目群数字可视化管理DigitalvisualportfoliomanagementExpoof2010ShanghaiChina吴志强WUZhiqiang同济大学TongjiUniversity2006.10.14IPMAInternationalYoungCrewWorkshopShanghai，China，13th-14thOctober20061.研究背景Background世博会成功的关键KeyissueforasuccessfulExpo•世博会规划建设是一个复杂巨系统•基地位于城市中心区边缘•规模史无前例（5.28km2、7000万预测参观人次极有可能被突破)•建设量大、工程复杂•缺乏经验、不确定因素多•多系统整合与多方参与者的协同作战•Theplanning&constructionprocessofExpoisAComplicatedMegasystem•SiteLocatedattheedgeofdowntownarea•Largestscaleinexpo’shistory(5.28km2,70millonenestimatedvisitors)•Includealargeamountofcomplicatedprojects•Localauthoritylackofexperienceforsuchamegaevent•IntegrationofdifferentsectorsandcooperationbetweendiverseactorsYan’anRd.viaductN-SviaductInnerRingLujiazuiEXPOSiteselectionDowntownwaterfrontsitealongtheHuangpuRiverbetweenNanpuBridge&LupuBridgeExpoSite5.28km2Coordinatedarea1.4km2•Exposite:5.28km²--3.93km²inPudong--1.35km²inPuxiVisitorsEstimation:•Totalnumberofvisitors:70million--400,000(averageday)--600,000(peakday)--800,000(extremepeakday)010203040506070805.15.115.215.316.106.206.307.107.207.308.98.198.299.89.189.2810.810.1810.28客流量（万）10millionvisitors50millionvisitorsNumberofvisitorsin1dayexceeds780,000(Oct.03)AichiShanghaiHannoverLisbon77,000118,00082,000351,000272,000OsakaMontreal800,000600,000400,00014m214m213m29m29m28m2（estimated）AreapervisitorperdayVisitorsperdayComparisonswithpastExposLargestscaleeversincethebirthofExpo项目成功与否很大程度上取决于决策者、设计者、建设者、项目参与各方对于项目信息及时、直观、深入的了解、沟通、共享，因此需要一套具有中枢功能的规划建设数字可视化系统，能够直观地模拟和指导世博园区的规划建设过程。Thesuccessofexpoplanning&constructiondependsgreatlyontimely,directanddeepunderstandingofdecision-makers,designers,buildersandallprojectactorsonprojectinformation.Therefore,itispressingtobuildanintegrateddigitalvisualmanagementsystemfortimelymutualsupervision,simulation,andcontrolontheplanningandbuildinglifecycleofExpositethroughcollectinganddistributingvisualinformation,whichleadstorationaldesign,demonstration,managementanddecision-making.ResearchFramework2.世博园区规划建设过程管理模式Managementmodesforplanning&buildingprocessofExposite工程项目管理模式研究ProjectManagementmodes1.项目管理承包模式（ProgramManagementContracting,PMC）2.一体化项目管理模式（ProgramManagement,PM）3.建筑工程管理模式（ConstructionManagement.CM）4.设计——施工模式（DesignBuild.DB）5.设计－管理模式（Design-Manage）6.更替型合同模式（NovationContract,NC）世博园区规划建设过程管理中存在的问题1.建设规模大，项目群体化；2.决策、管理、设计、施工投资等参与者多；3.投资多，建设周期长；4.与政治经济社会和城市整体空间之间相互影响大；5.内外部环境不定因素较多，技术经济和社会风险大；6.组织管理复杂，信息量大。ChallengesfacingExpoplanning&buildingprocess1.Largescale,portfolioprojects2.Largenumberofparticipantsindecision-making,management,designandbuilding3.largeinvestmentandlongbuildingperiod4.Bigimpactonpolitics,economy,societyandoverallurbanspace5.Unstablefactorsfromouterandinnerenvironment,hightechnicalandsocialrisk6.Complicatedorganizationandmanagement,largeamountofinformation世博园区规划建设过程管理对策1.“PM+CM”开发组织模式2.PRE-POST开发运行模式3.规划建设全生命周期可视化平台控制管理模式ProposalsforExpoplanning&buildingprocessmanagement1.“PM+CM”mode2.PRE-POSTmode3.DigitalvisualLifecycleManagementofPlanning&buildingprocess“PM+CM”mode“PM+CM”modePRE-POST的过程控制核心思想CoreofPre-postusePRE-POST前中后preduringpost时间Time收益Profit平手最成功成功PRE-POST的过程控制ProcedureControlBasedonPRE-POSTPRE-POSTeconomicoperationmode20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015investmentHousemoveHousemoveInfrastructureinvested，partialbuildinginvestedInfrastructureinvested，partialbuildinginvestedInfrastructureinvestedBigportionofbuildinginvestedBuildinganddecorationLandtiding、salespromotionLandtiding、salespromotionDailyoperationDailyoperationDailyoperationAnnualoutputbuildingSmallportionpreservedbuildingforreusageNoneSmallportionpermanentbuildingputintouseSmallportionpermanentbuildingputintouseNoneBuildingusagemodetransfer,sell,rentBuildingsellUsagerightreturnNoneNoneNoneNoneLandremiseNonePre-selllandincomePre-selllandincomePre-selllandincomePartiallandsellLandremiseprotocolcompleteDrawbackalllandremisefundNoneNoneNoneNoneLandrentingNoneRentpartialunusedlandNoneNoneLandrentingincomeLandrentingincomeNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneinfrastructureNoneNoneNoneInfrastructureremiseprotocolFacilityoperationremiseNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneOtherincomingNonePreusefacilityoperationincomePreusefacilityoperationincomePreusefacilityoperationincomeAdvertisementtitleauctionDuringExpoExpoparkoperationincomeExpoparkoperationincomeExpoparkoperationincomeExpoparkoperationincomeExpoparkoperationincomePRE-POSTpostusephasePRE-POST的过程控制ProcedureControlBasedonPRE-POST两种经济运行方式的比较Comparison-180-160-140-120-100-80-60-40-2002020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015-180-160-140-120-100-80-60-40-2002020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015PRE-POST运行方式的累计收益PRE-POSTmodeaccumulatedprofit传统运行方式的累计收益TraditionalmodeaccumulatedprofitPRE-POST的过程控制ProcedureControlBasedonPRE-POSTPRE-POSTlandandspaceusetransitionBeforeexpoDuringexpo200520062007200820092010LandspacefunctionsChinapavilionChinapavilionThemepavilionThemepavilionNationalpavilionNationalpavilionEnterprisepavilionEnterprisepavilionExpovillageExpovillageLogisticcenterLogisticcenterPerformancecenterPerformancecenterPlazagreenbeltPlazagreenbeltIn