国产600MW燃煤机组检修周期优化及经济性分析

上海交通大学硕士学位论文国产600MW燃煤机组检修周期优化及经济性分析姓名：何绍赓申请学位级别：硕士专业：工业工程指导教师：叶春;张京玉20051201600MW2200615600MW32006152006154600MW600MW/-2001200554616%200412600MW6OVERHAULPERIODOPTIMIZATIONANDECONOMICSANALYSESON600MWUNITSABSTRACTThemonopolyofpowerindustrywillbereformedfromthesideofgenerationsectorafterthepowerreformationwithcompetitionandseparationofpowerplantandpowergrid.Meanwhileduringtheprocessfromtheplannedeconomytomarketeconomy,powerplantwillcomeupagainstthecompetitionpressuremoreandmorefrompowermarket.Withthegrowingeffecttopowerplantfromnew-stylepricemechanismandrisingcoalprice,theprofitsforgenerationcompanieswillbereducedgradually.Basedonthesituationabove,ShanghaiWujingNO.2PowerGenerationLLCOhasattachedimportancetooptimalgenerationfacilityandoperationcostmanagement,further,whichwilltakerelevantmeasurestooptimizeoverhaulperiodinordertosavecostbyeconomyandsecurityanalysestogenerationunitsandmakegreatachievementinkeytechnologyreformation.Alsoaccordingtotheaboveanalysesfoundation,ShanghaiWujingNO.2PowerGenerationLLCOdecidedtotakelarge-scaleexaminationandoverhaultogenerationunits.Thispaperwillmakerelevantresearchinfollowingaspects:7First,thepaperwilltakeoptimizationcalculationandtechnicaleconomyanalysestogenerationunitswith600MWcapacityandputforwardanalysesmethodbasedonengineeringeconomicsandreliability,moreovermakeuseofthemethodtocalculateoperationhoursandriskprobabilityandraisereasonsuggestiontointervalbetweenexaminationsandoverhaul,finallyconfirmoptimaloverhaultime.Meanwhile,thepaperalsobringsforwardmoderntechnologymethodanddatabasetechnologytoextenttheintervalbetweenexaminationandoverhaulagainstover-repairandoff-repairforsavingoverhaulcostandoperationhoursbasedontechnologymanagement.Accordingtotheoverhauloperationperiodfrom2001to2005,theplantincreasedpoint-examinationinvestmenttoreducemalfunctionprobabilityandreturnprobability,indetails,theoverhaulperiodhaspostponedto6yearsfrom4yearsandsavedcostaboutmorethan100millionYuan,andjustmeant120millionYuanwithdiscountrateof6%in2004.Furthermore,themethodbasedonengineeringeconomyandreliabilitytheorywithextentofgenerationunitsperiodanalysesandevaluationmethodcanbepopularizedandappliedinunitswith600MWcapacity,alsowhichcanproviderelevantreferencetotheoverhaulforlarge-scaleunitsandpresentpracticalityfordevelopingcompetitionamongplants.Finally,thepaperindicatesthattheoverhaulperiodmustbe8regulatedaccordingtoactualstateformainfacilitiesandmalfunctioncharacteristic.Theplantcanbeprovidedbynecessarytechnologysupportforflexiblearrangementforoverhaulcontent,overhaullevelandoverhaultimeandfulfillresearchandpracticeoutcomethroughcontinuouspracticeanddevelopment.Keywords:Electricitymarket;Generationplantmainframe;Overhaulperiodoptimization;Economicsanalyses;Overhaulcost11600MW6000[34](TBM)50[6]41213124[9]TBM4561ABCD[2]121.17011000010050MW180MW19541963[21-23]50%+50%NVNV1-1RiiN01-1N0+V1N1+V2,Ni+Vi+1ii+1300NiVi+118315812017NVNVRRv1-2ii=01-1Figure1-1StatisticstocirculatethetroublewithoverhaultheblemishdiscovertimethathouradoptcentsegmentNi-1Vi100%50%50%RiNiVi+1100%50%50%Ri+1130%10%20%30%40%50%N0RN+V+RvNVRv0%10%20%30%40%50%RRvN+VNV1-2100%N0N018%N0N01-282%N044%()16%40%100NV1-2%Figure1-2Use%meanofforcetoshutdownoverhaultheexpensesandoverhaul,intermediateoverhaul,repairtheexpensescovarianceN0:N0N:NiRvV:ViR:14NERC[34]1989199356260000MW51020576842400MW62007006101680042001.2[23]11987CanadianElectricalAssociation486[30]T-G()15T-GT-G27080[23][23]1633%13171-371-3,63EPRI[28-32]1-3Figure1-3Easilytroubletakeplaceinthemovementwitheasytroublethatdiscoverinadvanceinoverhaul30%30%42%50%58%63%0%20%40%60%80%100%18NPV20EPRIT-GT-GEPRISAFEREPRIBLADEBLADEBladeLifeAlgorithmforDynamicEvaluationBLADEBLADE19DeterministicMonteCarlo7090RCM()/201.31.3.1600MW200330600MW5271-1[34]1-1600MWTable1-1600MWunitindomesticandoverhaultheperiodarrangement#012003.06.09#022003.07.29#021985.12.305#031998.03.245#032001.12.18#042002.06.05#051997.01.17#061997.11.05#012002.09.28#022003.08.18#031996.01.274#041999.11.303#011998.11.12#021999.06.20#011991.10.304#021994.10.204#032000.09.28#042000.07.0821#052000.07.28#011989.11.046#021992.12.256#011992.06.128#021992.12.268#012000.07.10#022001.05.06#012000.03.15#022000.09.16#032002.03.15#042003.03.01#012003.12.091.3.21997[9]22RCM()RCMPDM,[6]23/RCMCSIRBMWARE461A462A48[34]1.3.3[1]2050TBM3448TBM241.3.4SD230-19872003.01.092003.06.01[2]253456114668ABCDABACDCABCD1.4/[22]26/1.51-2Table1-2AfterdomesticandinternationalunitscarrythereliabilityofthefirstyearcompareMW/%%Gavin11300B&Q/BBC1974.1017.1092.30Zimmea1300B&Q/ABB()WH()1991.0310.5091.401500/1981.01199.572500/1981.0661002600/1985.10199.0545001993688.921600/1989.11126.1050.261600CE/1991.10124.5047.251600CESULZER/ABB1992.06111.5769.902600Babcock/ALSTHOM1994.10124.2463.1135[34]1988199370%680%2719942199563.11%90%600MW1-41-55600MW[34]600MW80%84%88%92%19992000200120022003600-799MW600MW0%2%4%6%8%19992000200120022003600MW600-799MW1-41-51.6Figure1-4equivalenteffectcanusethecoefficientFigure1-5equivalenteffectforcestostoptheluckrate28NPV29600MW;[8]2.1T-G2.1.1[13]NPVO