1970-2001年,美国平均通货膨胀率5%

Chapter1THEINVESTMENTSETTING1.2InvestmentsChapter1Chapter1QuestionsWhatisaninvestment?Whatarethecomponentsoftherequiredrateofreturnonaninvestment?Whatkeyissuesshouldinvestorsalwaysconsider?Whattypesofinvestmentscanwemake?Wheredoinvestorsplacefundsforinvestmentandsavingspurposes?Whataresomebasicinvestmentphilosophiesthatindividualandinstitutionalinvestorsfollow?Whyareethicsandregulationsaconcerntoallinvestmentprofessionals?Whataresomecareerpathsavailableforpersonsinterestedininvestments?1.3InvestmentsChapter1Whatisaninvestment?Aninvestmentisthecurrentcommitmentofresourcesforaperiodoftimeintheexpectationofreceivingfutureresourcesthatwillcompensatetheinvestorfor:thetimeresourcesarecommittedtheexpectedrateofinflationtheuncertaintyoffuturepayments1.4InvestmentsChapter1Whatisaninvestment?Ishidingmoneyinamattressorkeepingitinapiggybankaninvestment?No!The“safe-keeping”ofmoneydoesnotinvolveanyexpectedcompensation.1.5InvestmentsChapter1Whatisaninvestment?Howaboutbaseballcards?Aretheyaninvestment?Possibly,butcompensationishighlyuncertain,andsomeofthevalueofownershipmaybe“sentimental”ratherthanfinancialinnature.1.6InvestmentsChapter1ComponentsOfTheRequiredRateofReturnInordertodeferconsumption,investorsneedcompensationfromthreesourcesthepureorrealinterestrate(Realriskfreerate)inflationprotectionrisk1.7InvestmentsChapter1Therealinterestrate:CompensationfortimeTherealrisk-freerateofinterestistheexchangeratebetweenfutureconsumptionandpresentconsumption.Thisrateofinterestcanbethoughtofasthe“pure”rentalrateonmoneyintheabsenceofinflationandrisk.Question:ifsomeonewanttoborrow100$forayearformyou,howmuchdoyouwantreceivedafterayear?Supposethereisnoinflation,norisk.1.8InvestmentsChapter1Whyistherealrisk-freeratepositive?Borrowersarewillingtopaytobeabletospendmorethantheircurrentresourcesallow.Saversneedcompensationinordertogiveuptherighttoconsumetoday.1.9InvestmentsChapter1InflationProtectionIfthefuturepaymentwillbediminishedinvaluebecauseofinflation,theninvestorswilldemandaninterestratehigherthantherealrisk-freeinterestratesothattheirexpectedpurchasingpowerwillactuallyincrease.1.10InvestmentsChapter1example1970-2001年，美国平均通货膨胀率5％中国全国居民消费价格总水平比上年上涨2004年3.9%2003年1.2%2002年0.8%2001年0.7%2000年0.4%1999年1.4%1998年0.8%1.11InvestmentsChapter11.12InvestmentsChapter1Usetheformerexample,Ifyouexpectedtheinflationrateis2%inthecomeyear,howmuchdoyouwanttobepaidafterayear?1.13InvestmentsChapter1CombiningtheRealRateandExpectedInflationThenominalrisk-freerateofinterestadjuststherealrisk-freeratetoreflectexpectedinflationoverthelifeoftheinvestment.Takingintoaccountthesetwofactors(timeandexpectedinflation)compensatesinvestorsforthe“timevalue”oftheirmoney.1.14InvestmentsChapter1CompensationforRisk-bearingInvestorstendtoberisk-averse,meaningthattheyneedsufficientexpectedadditionalcompensationinordertobearadditionalrisk.Ifthefuturepaymentfromaninvestmentisuncertain,investorswilldemandaninterestratethatexceedsthenominalrisk-freerateofinteresttoprovideariskpremium.Usethesameexample,Ifthereissomeriskintheinvestment,andyouneed3%riskpremium,thenhowmuchdoyouwantbepaid?1.15InvestmentsChapter1TheRequiredRateofReturnThesumofthenominalrisk-freeinterestrateandtheriskpremiumonaninvestmentgivesthatinvestment’srequiredrateofreturn.Notethatforriskierinvestments,theriskpremium,andthereforetherequiredrateofreturn,willbehigherthanforlowerriskinvestments.1.16InvestmentsChapter1IssuesThatInvestorsShouldAlwaysConsiderThereisatrade-offbetweenriskandexpectedreturn.Developedfinancialmarketsarenearlyefficient.Focusonafter-taxreturns,netofexpenses.Diversifyacrossassettypes,industries,andevencountries.1.17InvestmentsChapter1Risk-ReturnTrade-OffBecauseinvestorstendtoberiskaverse,itmakessensethattheywillonlytakeonriskierinvestmentsiftheyexpecttoearnmorethanwithlowerriskinvestments.1.18InvestmentsChapter1MarketEfficiencyAnefficientmarketisonewhere…Informationisquicklyandaccuratelyreflectedinassetprices,So…Whatappearstobe“news”isnotusefulinpredictingfutureassetprices,Withtheresultthat…Investorscannotsystematicallyandconsistently“beatthemarket”withouttheaidofeitherinsideinformationorloadsofluck.1.19InvestmentsChapter1ImplicationsofMarketEfficiencyIt’swhatisunexpectedthatmovesthemarket(thegenuinelynewinformationinnews).Weshouldbeskepticalofinvestmentstrategiesthatclaimtobeabletobeatthemarketonaconsistentbasis.1.20InvestmentsChapter1TheParadoxofMarketEfficiencyIfmarketsareperfectlyefficient,itmakesnosensetoseekoutsuperiorinvestments.Butifnobodyseeksoutsuperiorinvestments,themarketwouldnotremainefficient!1.21InvestmentsChapter1TakeTaxesandExpensesIntoAccountIt’swhatyougettokeepthatcounts!TaxesaffectinvestmentdecisionsSomeallowforlowerornotaxburden(Municipalbonds)Someallowfordeferraloftaxliability(IRA’s)Letslookanexample:MaryandJohneachinvest$2,000for25yearsinamutualfundaccountthatearnsovertimeanaverageannual10percentreturnonapre-taxbasis.Afterincomeandcapitalgainstax,aninvestor’sannualreturncouldbeonly8%.Mary’smoneyisinvestedintax-defferre