经济基本面还是房地产政策在影响中国的房价

:,1998200835,,,,,,;;,::,,100872:F292.35:A:10028102(2010)03011607,,,,,,?,,?,Hort(1998)Capozza(2002)62,McquinnOReilly(2008)Glin2dro(2008)16OECD9,,Gallin(2006),Bernanke(1999)(),,CollynsSenhadji(2002),Goodhart(1995),GerlachPeng(2005),,,Muellbau2erMurphy(1997)1980Priemus(2003),,(2005)611Finance&TradeEconomics,No13,2010,GDP(2006)LiangCao(2007),,(2004)1995-200214,,(2007)Peng(2008)(2007)Peng(2008)GDP,,,,,(2004),(2007)Peng(2008),,,,,,,,,(),2002,,(),2002,200271,,,,,,,,,,,,(MuellbauerMurphy,1997;,2007;Stevenson,2008),:Ph=g(H/POP,y,,D)(1)=r+-Phe/Ph,PhpherH,POP,H/POP,y,,,(Stevenson,2008),(2007)Stevenson(2008)Phe/Ph,,r,FDI,,FDI,FDI,,FDI71120103,D,:ln(hpriceit)=1+2ln(nfpopit)+3ln(incomeit)+4ln(rrit)+5ln(actfdiit)+6ln(hperareait)+ui+t+it(2)hpriceitnfpopitincomeitrritactfdiit,hperareait,it,it,itHaus2man244.06,5%,,11998-20022003-20081998-20084.492(0.664)-1.860(2.008)0.665(0.881)-0.815(3.495)0.029(0.251)-5.2443(2.796)ln(nfpop)0.187333(0.115)0.130(0.077)0.469333(0.125)0.16233(0.138)0.432333(0.060)0.333333(0.073)ln(income)0.234333(0.072)0.266333(0.099)0.393333(0.111)-0.116(0.154)0.517333(0.048)0.326333(0.090)ln(rr)0.031(0.053)3.923333(1.138)0.561333(0.153)5.65133(2.221)0.409333(0.046)5.06933(1.694)ln(actfdi)-0.020(0.009)0.017(0.009)-0.017(0.015)-0.0283(0.014)-0.012(0.011)-0.008(0.012)ln(hperarea)-0.053(0.041)-0.033(0.039)0.18533(0.084)0.163(0.087)0.119333(0.055)0.1153(0.061)Adj2R20.9810.9840.9400.9470.9330.930F235.819333250.45033385.50733386.389333123.91333104.788333175175210210385385:3333331%5%10%,,35,()1(2),,2002,,1998-2008,,,,,,811Finance&TradeEconomics,No13,201035/,1997-200135,1997,1998-2002,5%;2003-2008,5%,10%,,,,12t(2)Chow(,),1998-20021,2003-20082RSS,RSS11,RSS22,F:F=(RSS-RSS1-RSS2)/(N+K)(RSS1+RSS2)/[NT-2(N+K)]F(N+K,NT-2(N+K))K,K=5,F=9.231F0.05(40,305)=1.434,,,,,N1,06year,16year,year(2)t1,2t5%10%1,,,,,()2,3,,,,,,(2),,,,,,,2002,,,91120103,,,,,,,,,:ln(hpriceit)=1+2ln(hpriceit-1)+Xit1+Zit2+ui+t+it(3)Xit,1Zit,()lbuyareaitbankloanitfundithbldedareaithsaleareaithvacumit,ArellanoBond(1991)GMM(AB-GMM)AB-GMM,Sargan,()22(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)-.0521(0.074)-0.083(0.067)0.059333(0.009)-0.1883(0.112)-0.178(0.207)0.038333(0.006)L.ln(hprice)0.342333(0.121)0.379333(0.112)0.475333(0.084)0.20433(0.110)0.370333(0.103)0.542333(0.073)ln(nfpop)0.051(0.087)0.020(0.088)0.101(0.069)0.086(0.067)ln(income)-0.057(0.142)-0.134(0.135)-0.104(0.121)0.082(0.114)ln(rr)-3.881(2.677)-4.912(2.444)-5.961(3.867)-2.978(2.921)ln(actfdi)0.003(0.007)0.004(0.006)-0.0163(0.008)-0.006(0.010)ln(hperarea)0.1183(0.042)0.126(0.039)0.11533(0.049)0.134(0.036)ln(hbldedarea)0.068(0.030)0.051(0.022)ln(hsalearea)-0.103333(0.037)-0.04733(0.023)-0.05733(0.020)-0.128333(0.027)-0.104333(0.023)-0.115333(0.020)ln(hvacum)-0.03433(0.015)-0.040333(0.012)-0.030333(0.013)-0.028333(0.014)-0.033333(0.015)-0.01733(0.013)ln(lbuyarea)-0.00833(0.008)-0.00533(0.008)-0.01233(0.007)-0.0123(0.010)-0.012(0.009)-0.00933(0.008)ln(bankloan)0.00633(0.003)0.00633(0.006)0.007333(0.002)021Finance&TradeEconomics,No13,2010(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)ln(fund)0.114333(0.029)0.115333(0.034)0.123333(0.017)Wald21260.63333685.99333503.22333593.43333788.34333955.39333Sargan224.0623.5129.7922.3723.2725.67AR(2)Z0.260.340.580.140.230.42210210210210210210:3333331%5%10%,L,2002-2008,,,,Wald1%,;Sargan2,;Arellano-BondAR(2),,,2:,,,,,,,,,,,,(1)(3)(4)(6),,,Bernanke(1998)LiangCao(2007),,,(1),,,(2)(3)(5)(6),,,,(2004),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;12120103,(3),35,35,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:1.:,200782.::1995200214,200463.::,200554.:,200625.Liang,Q.,Cao,H.,PropertyPricesandBankLendinginChina.JournalofAsianEconomics,Vol.18,2007,pp.63-75.6.Muellbauer,J.,Murphy,A.,BoomsandBustsintheUKHousingMarket.TheEconomicJournal,Vol.107,No.455,1997,pp.1701-1727.7.Peng,W.,Tam,D.C.,Yiu,M.S.,PropertyMarketandtheMacroeconomyofMainlandChina:aCrossRegionStudy.PacificEconomicReview,Vol.13,No.2,2008,pp.240-258.8.Stevenson,S.,ModelingHousingMarketFundamentals:EmpiricalEvidenceofExtremeMarketConditions.RealEstateEconomics,Vol.36,No.1,2008,pp.1-29.9.Capozza,D.R.,Hendershott,P.H.,Mack,C.,etal.,DeterminantsofRealHousePriceDynamics,NBERWorkingPaper,No.9262,2002.:221Finance&TradeEconomics,No13,2010,,