Abstract Olive Oil world Market Dynamics and Polic

1OliveOilworldMarketDynamicsandPolicyReforms:ImplicationsforTunisiaBoubakerKARRAYOliveTreeInstituteBP1087,3018SfaxTunisia,Tel:[e-mail]mationrevealedthatthefutureofTunisianoliveoilcompetitivenessonprincipalexportmarketswillbedeterminedbyasetofexternalandinternalfactors.Theexternalfactorsconcernthedynamicsoftheworldmarket(supply,demandandexchanges)andthenewarrangementsconcerningmarketsliberalization(CommonMarketOrganizationoftheoliveoilandolivesoftable,WTOnegotiationsandbilateralandregionalagreements).TheinternalfactorsrelatedtotheproductionandexportsysteminTunisia.Basedonthispremise,thegoalofthiscommunicationistoprovideanoverallevaluationofthesefactorspointingoutthemainstrengths,weaknesses,opportunitiesandthreats(SWOT)thatcanbeassociatedtotherepresentandfutureevolution.ResearchusestheSWOTmethodthathastheadvantageofbeingrelativelysimpleandconstitutesaframeworkofstrategicdiagnosisandreflection.Theinformationusedhasbeencollectedthroughabibliographicsynthesisofstudiesalreadyachievedandofpreliminaryresultsofthefirstroundofinvestigationcloseto23expertswhooccupydifferentpostsintheoliveoilsector.Keywords:Market,policy,competitiveness,oliveoil,Tunisia,SWOTanalysisThisworkwassupportedbytheEU-MEDAGPOL(2004-2007)“ImpactsofagriculturaltradeliberalizationbetweentheEUandMediterraneancountries”fundedbyEuropeanCommissionundercontractreferenceSSPE-2004-502457,coordinatedbyCIHEAM-IAMMontpellier,andconductedby9partnersof6differentMediterraneancountries.21.IntroductionTheprospective,modernformofanticipation(1)hasbeenattachedgreatimportancetheselastyears.Thisparticipativesystematicprocessofcollective-intelligenceconstructionforthefutureandforshort,mediumorlong-termvisionsconceptionshasforobjectivetoilluminatedecisionsaboutthepresent,andtomobilizethenecessarymeansfortheengagementincommonactions(2).ThisobjectiveperfectlyappliestothecaseofoliveoilthatconstitutesastrategicexportproductinTunisia.Thedynamicsoftheworldmarketofoliveoil,markedbythenewconsumers’andproducers’emergenceandbythemodificationofthedemandstructureinfavorofthevirginoils,thenewarrangementsconcerningmarketsliberalization(CommonMarketOrganizationofoliveoilandtableolives,WTOnegotiationsandbilateralandregionalagreements),placedproducingandexportingcountriesinanuncertaincompetitiveeconomiccontextwheretheholdofconscienceoffuturestakesandtheengagementofadaptedpolicyreformshavebecomeimperative.InTunisia,oliveoilplaysanimportanteconomic,socialandenvironmentalrole(3).Thecommercialpoliciesengagedsince1962,gaveamarkedprioritytooliveoilexportationandseedoilsimportation,whilesubsidizingtheconsumptionpriceofthislatter.Twomaingoalsaresoughtthroughthesepolicies:ontheonehand,toincreasecurrencyincomesand,ontheotherhand,topreservethepurchasingpowerofthemostimpoverishedsociallayers(4).So,theproducedoliveoilisdestinedmainlytotheexport.Between1991and2005,Tunisiaproduced159thousandtonsofoliveoilofwhich114thousandtonshavebeenexported.Sincetheliberalizationofoliveoilcollectionandmerchandisingin1994,thisoperationisassuredbytheNationalOfficeofOil(NOO)and93privateexporters.Theremainderoftheproductionissoldonthehomemarket.TheaverageconsumptionoftheTunisianhouseholdisabout8,2kgofoliveoiland15,9Kgofseedsoilperyearwithobviousdissimilaritiesbetweenregions(5).Duringtheperiod2001-05,theroleofoliveoilintheTunisianeconomyanditspositiononexportmarketshaveregressed.Onthenationallevel,thisproductcontributesfor34.9%tofoodsexportvalue,andfor2.7%tothetotalexportvalue.Ontheinternationallevel,Tunisiacontributesfor4.41%totheworldproductionandfor7.76%totheworldexports.TheTunisianmarketsharereached8.8%ontheEuropeanmarketwhichhasbeenforseveralyearsthemaindestinationoftheTunisianoliveoil.Tothismarket,Tunisiastillrepresentsthefirstthirdcountrysuppliereventhoughitspositionregressedcomparedtotheyears1991-1995duringwhichmarketsharewas17.2%.TheEuropeanoliveoilimportscomingfromthiscountryrepresent10%ofthetotalimportsand60%ofimportscomingfromtheThirdcountries(6).Theseimportsaregovernedbyregulatorymeasuresfixingthetariffsinnormalandinpreferentialregimes,andthestandardsofqualityandmerchandisingwithintheframeworkoftheoliveoilandtableolivesCommonMarketOrganization(7and8).Theseregulatorymeasuresarecontinuallymodified.TheygranttotheThirdcountriessometariffpreferencesonaquantityfixedbythecommission(quota)andatotalexonerationininward-processingarrangements.Theylimit,however,theimportscomingfromthesecountriesinnormalregimethatsupportselevatedtariffs.Ontheotherexportmarkets,notablyUSA,Canada,JapanandAustralia,themarketshareoftheTunisianoliveoilhasslightlyincreased.ButitalwaysremainsweakbecauseofthestrongcompetitionoftheItalianand,toaleastdegree,oftheSpanishandtheGreekexporterswhodominatethesemarkets.Wilereferringtothe70s,80sand90s,wehavenotedthatTunisianoliveoilperformancesweregloballysuperior(3).ThisworryingsituationleadsustoquestionthefutureofTunisianoliveoilperformances,particularlyitscompetitivenessonprincipalexportmarkets.TheavailableinformationrevealsthatTunisianoliveoilperformancesare