The Influence of Uncertain Job Location on Urban F

.JOURNALOFURBANECONOMICS39,342]3561996ARTICLENO.0018TheInfluenceofUncertainJobLocationonUrbanFormandtheJourneytoWork*RANDALLCRANEDepartmentsofUrbanPlanningandEn¨ironmentalAnalysis,Uni¨ersityofCalifornia,Ir¨ine,California92717-5150ReceivedJanuary6,1994;revisedJanuary18,1995Standardurbanmodelsassumeresidentsneverthinkabouttheirnextjob.Morelikely,theindividualvalueofagivenhomeandthechoiceofcommutelengtharebasednotonlyonthecurrentjobsite,butalsoontheexpectationofwherefuturejobswillbeandthelikelihoodofbothjobseparationsandresidentialmoves.Thefirstfactorlessensthevalueofaccesstothepresentjob,whiletheseconddeterminestheopportunitycostofmoving.Bothsetsoffactorsleadtoflatterrentgradientsandmoresprawlthanpredictedbystandardtheories.Theanalysisfurthersuggeststhatrelativelystablejobsarelikelyassociatedwithrelativelyshortercommutes.Paststudiesoftheregionalbalanceofjobsandhousing,of‘‘wasteful’’commuting,ofdifferencesinthelengthofcommutebygender,andofspatialtestsfordiscriminationinhousingandlocallabormarketshaveneglectedtheseconsiderations,andmayyieldbiasedresultsasaconsequence.Q1996Aca-demicPress,Inc.1.INTRODUCTIONTheconventionaltheoryofurbanstructureisknowntobelimitedinmanyrespects,asanytheorymustbe.Ofcoursesomeelementsoftherealworldaremorepivotalthanothers,dependingontheproblemathand.Theirabsencefromamodelmayhavedirectbearingontheusefulnessoftheoreticalresultsaswellasthevalidityofsubsequentempiricalstrategies.Thispaperarguesthatsuchmaybethecasewithpaststudiesofthejourneytowork,andbyextensionthestructureofurbanareas.Byneglectingtheinfluenceofpotentialfuturejoblocationsandlife-cyclefactorsoncurrenthousingdecisions,thesestudiesinadequatelyexplainbothoverallcommutingbehavioranddifferencesincommutingpatternsamongvariouspopulationgroups.*IamgratefulforthethoughtfulcommentsofM.Boarnet,G.Crampton,G.Fielding,C.Lave,K.Small,tworeferees,andespeciallyJ.Brueckneronearlierversions,andfundingfromaUCIrvineFacultyFellowshipandtheU.S.andCaliforniaDepartmentsofTransporta-tionviatheUniversityofCaliforniaTransportationCenter.3420094-1190r96$18.00CopyrightQ1996byAcademicPress,Inc.Allrightsofreproductioninanyformreserved.THEINFLUENCEOFUNCERTAINJOBLOCATION343Thestandardapproachistoarguethateachhouseholdwilltradeoffthevalueofaccesstotheircurrentjobagainstthecostofhousingwhenchoosingwheretolive.Inanareawithasinglesiteformostemployment,thisstorygeneratesdecliningequilibriumrentsanddensitieswiththelengthofthecommute.Toaccountforlabormarketswithmultiplemajoremploymentlocations,mostanalystshavesimplygeneralizedthestaticmodeltoallowformanysuchrentanddensitynodes,i.e.,suburbanizationwxofemploymentandthepopulation.ExamplesincludeWhite35,Wielandwxwx.37,andYinger38.Thispaperalsoconsidersasettingofmultipleemploymentcenters,butallowsforafullerexplanationoftheresultingresidentiallocationpattern.Weconsideranenvironmentwherejoblocationmaychangeandwhereitiscostlytomove.Moreover,thecostofamoveispermittedtodependonthecharacteristicsoftheindividualandthejobandhomesites.Theultimatechoiceofaplacetoliveisthereforebasednotonlyonthecurrent.job,butalsoontheexpectationofiwherethenextjobwillbe,and.iihowoftenthehouseholdwillchoosetomoveforotherreasons.Thefirstfactorlessensthevalueofaccesstothecurrentjoblocation,whiletheseconddeterminestheopportunitycostofmoving.Extendingtheusualframeworkinthissimplebutimportantmannershedslightonquestionsraisedbyrecentempiricalworkregardinganumberoftransportationpolicyissues,includingevidenceontheregionalbalanceofjobsandhousing,‘‘wastefulcommuting,’’thegendergapincommutelengths,andthespatialmismatchhypothesis.Ingeneral,theconnectionbetweencurrentjobandhousinglocationsisweakenedbytheconsiderationsintroducedhere,particularlyamongthesegmentsoftheworkingpopulationwhoeitherexpecttosoonmoveintoalargerhomeorwhoexpectjoblocationstochange.Thejobsrhousingbalancequestioniswxwxwx.discussedinCervero3,Giuliano9,andGordonetal.12,15.EvidencefromLosAngelesthattheaveragecommuteisprettymuchthesamethroughouttheareasupportsthenotionthatpeoplearekeepingtheirfutureoptionsopen,ratherthanfocusingexclusivelyonminimizingthewxwx.currentcommutelengthGiulianoandSmall10,11,Gordonetal.15.The‘‘wasteful’’or‘‘excessive’’commutinghypothesis,introducedbywxHamilton16,isthataggregatecommutingfarexceedstheamountneces-sarytominimizetheequilibriumwork]hometrip.Otherpapershaveextendedtheanalysistoaccountfortheroleoflocalamenitiesandmultipleemploymentcenters,allofwhichassumethathouseholdsdonotplanaheadforpossiblejobchanges.TheseincludeGiulianoandSmallwxwxwx.11,SmallandSong31,andWhite36.Itisalsoclearthatstudieslookingatdifferencesinthecommutingbehaviorofmenandwomenhavenoteffectivelycontrolledforthelife-cycleandcareer-cyclecharacteristicspotentiallyinfluentialinbothjobandresidencelocationchoice.See,forRANDALLCRANE344wxwxexample,Gordonetal.13,MaddenandLic23,andMaddenandWhitewx.24.Themodelpresentedinthispapersuggestswewouldpredictashortercommuteforpersonswithrelativelysmalljobchangecosts,rela-tivelylowhomemovecosts,highercommutingcostspermile,andlessjobturnover.However,theimpor