高盛-中国煤炭行业深度研究(1)

August15,2006AsiaPacific:Metals&MiningGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch1August15,2006AsiaPacific:Metals&MiningAsianCoal:ChinaholdsthekeyonbackoflowerIndonesiansupplyKeystanceWebelievetherisk/rewardfortheAsianandChinesethermalcoalmarketisstillonthedownside.Chinaisenteringavolumerampupcycle—afteraperiodofheavycapexongreenfieldandtransportationinfrastructure—potentiallyincreasingdomesticandregionalsupplyin2H2006andthrough2007.TherecentsharpriseinmarginalcostforIndonesianproducersisincrementallypositive,inourview,butnotenoughtoslowrisingexportprices.WepreferChinaShenhuaamongthelistedcoalstockswecovergivenitsstrongcompany-specificdrivers.Regionalmarketimprovingmarginally,ChinaholdskeytofutureThesharpreboundinregionalspotpricessincelate2005haslargelybeendrivenbystrongerIndianandChineseimports,andareductioninChineseexports.OurrecentIndonesianvisithighlightedpotentiallybetterIndonesiansupplydisciplineunderpinnedbyarapidriseinproducers’marginalcosts.Goingforward,webelieveChina’snettradeflowholdsthekeytotheregionalmarket’soutlook.China:VolumerampupcyclepointstodownsideriskWebelievethisdowncycleissupply-ledinChina.Growthinthekeydemanddriver—coal-firedpowergeneration—remainsstrongat13.4%ytd,comparedtotheaverageoverthelastfiveyearsof12.8%.The5%declineincoalspotpricesfromthiscycle’shighofRmb445/tinMay2005hasbeenunderpinnedbytransportationdebottleneckingwhichstartedinearly2005.Accelerationinsmallmineconsolidationcouldputfurthersupplypressureonlargeminescommencingtheirvolumerampupcycle.Theresultingfallindomesticpricesmayreversethedecliningtrendinnetcoalexportsandincreasepressureontheregionalmarket,forwhichweseedownsiderisk.Stockimplications:PreferShenhua,YanzhouCoalupgradedWeprefernameswithstrongcompany-specificdrivers—organicvolumegrowth,potentialM&Aopportunities,andstablecostprofiles—againstthebackdropofweaksectorfundamentals.ChinaShenhua(Neutral)isourtopsectorpick,fittingallthesecriteria.WewouldaccumulateShenhuaifthesharepriceweretodropbelowHK$13.5,implyingspotcoalpricesofRmb380/t,thefloorinouropinion.WehaveupgradedYanzhouCoal(YCM)toNeutralfromSellmainlyonvaluationandhigherspotcoalpricefloorlevels.WemaintainourNeutralratingonBanpuduetoflatcoalvolumegrowth.PotentialpositiveearningscontributionsfromBLCPPower(BLCP)arelargelypricedin,inouropinion.WehavetransferredstockcoverageofBanputoSongShenfromRickLoo.RisksRiskstoourthesisincludeasharper-than-expectedregionaldemandsurgeorearlier-than-expectedcommercialapplicationofcoal-to-liquid(CTL)processes.ChinaShenhuaEnergy(1088.HK,HK$14.54,Neutral)KeydataCurrentPrice(HK$)14.54Pricetarget(HK$)16.30Marketcap(HK$mn/US$mn)263,023.1/33,813.2Foreignownership(%)--12/0512/06E12/07E12/08EEPS(HK$)New0.901.031.171.23EPSrevision(%)0.00.05.537.1EPSgrowth(%)60.514.113.25.3EPS(dil)(Rmb)New0.861.041.131.19P/E(X)16.114.112.511.8P/B(X)4.74.13.42.9EV/EBITDA(X)6.08.57.16.4Dividendyield(%)2.82.52.83.0ROE(%)37.830.327.824.6YanzhouCoalMining(1171.HK,HK$5.87,Neutral)KeydataCurrentPrice(HK$)5.87Pricetarget(HK$)6.00Marketcap(HK$mn/US$mn)28,871.0/3,712.2Foreignownership(%)--12/0512/06E12/07E12/08EEPS(HK$)New0.560.570.660.60EPSrevision(%)0.04.427.3(8.9)EPSgrowth(%)(10.2)0.816.0(8.4)EPS(dil)(Rmb)New0.590.570.640.58P/E(X)10.410.38.99.7P/B(X)1.71.51.41.3EV/EBITDA(X)5.04.13.33.1Dividendyield(%)2.73.43.93.6ROE(%)17.415.215.312.8BanpuPCL(BANP.BK,Bt148,Neutral)KeydataCurrentPrice(Bt)148.00Pricetarget(Bt)137.00Marketcap(Btmn/US$mn)40,218.6/1,077.2Foreignownership(%)--12/0512/06E12/07E12/08EEPS(Bt)New20.4813.8513.9111.68EPSrevision(%)0.018.5173.1--EPSgrowth(%)52.6(32.4)0.5(16.1)EPS(dil)(Bt)New20.4813.8513.9111.68P/E(X)7.210.710.612.7P/B(X)1.91.81.71.6EV/EBITDA(X)6.08.611.013.0Dividendyield(%)7.94.55.04.0ROE(%)25.017.316.713.1SongShen+852-2978-1131|[e-mail](Asia)L.L.C.DavidPow+852-2978-1276|[e-mail](Asia)L.L.C.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotrequiredtotaketheNASD/NYSEanalystexam.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.doesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertification,seethetextprecedingthedisclosures.Forotherimportantdisclosuresgoto:Metals&MiningGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2TableofcontentsRegionalmarketimprovingmarginally,Chinaholdskeytofuture2China:Stillfacingsignificantsupplypressure7Stockimplications:WepreferShenhua,YanzhouCoalupgraded12Risks:PotentialmacroswingsandapplicationofCTLprocesses22EXPECTEDNEWSFLOW/EVENTSDATEEVENTCOMMENTAugust21,2006August28,2006YanzhouCoalinterimresultsannouncedShenhuaEnergyinterimresultsannouncedWeexpectnonegativesurprisesandforecastresultswillmeetconsensusandourexpectations.Weexpectresultstobeinlinewithconsensusandourexpectations.Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates.Thepricesinthebodyofthisreportarebase