【PPT精品课件】货币金融学7版英文课件--20-大学课件2

Chapter20TheInternationalFinancialSystem©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.20-2ExchangeMarketInterventionUnsterilized:Banksells$1billionof$,buys$1billionofforeignassetsBankofCanadaAssetsLiabilitiesForeignassets+$1bCurrencyorreserves+$1b(internationalreserves)(monetarybase)Results:1.Internationalreserves,+$1billion2.Monetarybase,+$1billion3.ThenanalysisinFig1,Et©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.20-3ExchangeMarketInterventionSterilized:ToreduceMBbacktooldlevel,BankofCanadasells$1billionofgovernmentbondsBankofCanadaAssetsLiabilitiesForeignassets+$1bCurrencyorreserves$0b(internationalreserves)(monetarybase)Governmentbonds–$1bResults1.Internationalreserves,+$1billion2.Monetarybaseunchanged3.Etunchanged:noshiftinRDandRF©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.20-4ExchangeRateIntervention,Sell$1.Sell$,buyF:MB,Ms2.Ms,P,Eet+1,expectedappreciationofF,RFshiftsrightinFig.13.Ms,iD,RDshiftsleft,gotopoint2andEt4.Inlongrun,iDreturnstooldlevel,RDshiftsback,gotopoint3:Exchangerateovershooting©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.20-5TheGoldStandardCurrencyconvertibleintogoldatfixedvalueExampleofhowitworked:Canada:$20convertedinto1ounceU.K.:£4convertedinto1ounceParvalueof£1=$5.00If£to$5.25,importerof£100oftweedhastwoalternatives:1.Pay$5252.Buy$500gold(500/20=25ounces),shiptoU.K.,convertinto£100(=25£4)andbuytweed©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.20-6TheGoldStandardIfshippingcheap,doalternative21.GoldflowstoU.K.2.MBinU.K,MBinCanada3.PricelevelU.K.,Canada4.£depreciatesbacktoparTwoProblems:1.CountryongoldstandardlosescontrolofMs2.Worldinflationdeterminedbygoldproduction©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.20-7FixedExchangeRateSystemsBrettonWoods1.Fixedexchangerates2.Othercentralbankskeepexchangeratesfixedto$:$isreservecurrency3.$convertibleintogoldforcentralbanksonly($35perounce)4.InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)setsrulesandprovidesloanstodeficitcountries5.WorldBankmakesloanstodevelopingcountriesEuropeanMonetarySystem1.Valueofcurrencynotallowedoutside“snake”2.Newcurrencyunit:ECU3.ExchangeRateMechanism(ERM)KeyweaknessoffixedratesystemAsymmetry:pressureondeficitcountrieslosinginternationalreservestoM,butnopressureonsurpluscountriestoM©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.20-8InterventioninaFixedExchangeRateSystem©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.20-9AnalysisofFigure2:InterventioninaFixedExchangeRateSystemSinceEet+1=Eparwithfixedexchangerate,RFdoesn’tshiftOvervaluedexchangerate(panela)1.Centralbanksellsinternationalreservestobuydomesticcurrency2.MB,Ms,iD,RDtorighttogettopoint23.Ifdon’tdothis,havetodevalueUndervaluedexchangerate(panelb)1.Centralbanksellsdomesticcurrencyandbuysinternationalreserves2.MB,Ms,iD,RDtolefttogettopoint23.Ifdon’tdothis,havetorevalue©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.20-10ExchangeRateCrisis1.AtEpar,R2FrightofRDbecauseBundesbanktightmoneykeepsGermaninterestrateshigh2.BankofEnglandcouldbuy£,iD,RDshiftsright3.Whenspeculatorsexpectdevaluation,Eet+1,RFshiftsright4.RequiresmuchbiggerinterventionbyUK5.WhenUKpullsoutofERM,£10%,biglossestocentralbank©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.20-11InternationalFinancialArchitectureCapitalControls1.Controlsonoutflowsunlikelytowork2.Controlsoninflowsmaypreventlendingboomandfinancialcrisis,butcausedistortionsRoleofIMF1.Thereisaneedforinternationallenderoflastresort(ILLR)andIMFhasplayedthisrole2.ILLRcreatesmoralhazardproblem3.IMFneedstolimitmoralhazardLendonlytocountrieswithgoodbanksupervision4.NeedtodoILLRrolefastandinfrequently©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.20-12MonetaryPolicy:InternationalConsiderations1.DirecteffectsofFXmarketWhenintervene,MBchanges2.BalanceofpaymentsconsiderationsWhenBofPisindeficitneedMs3.ExchangerateconsiderationsWhenwantlowerE,needMs