Climate Change and China Agricultural Sector

ICTSDInternationalCentreforTradeandSustainableDevelopmentClimateChangeandChina’sAgriculturalSector:AnOverviewofImpacts,AdaptationandMitigationIssueBriefNo.5J.Wang,J.HuangandS.RozelleMay2010ICTSD-IPCPlatformonClimateChange,AgricultureandTradeClimateChangeandChina’sAgriculturalSector:AnOverviewofImpacts,AdaptationandMitigationICTSDInternationalCentreforTradeandSustainableDevelopmentByJinxiaWang,JikunHuangandScottRozelleJinxiaWangisSeniorResearcherandJikunHuangisDirectorattheCenterforChineseAgriculturalPolicy,InstituteofGeographicalSciencesandNaturalResourceResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences.ScottRozelleisSeniorFellow,FoodSecurityandEnvironmentProgram,FeemanSpogliInstitute,StanfordUniversity.ClimateChangeandChina’sAgriculturalSector:AnOverviewofImpacts,AdaptationandMitigationIssueBriefNo.5ClimateChangeandChina’sAgriculturalSector:AnOverviewofImpacts,AdaptationandMitigationiiICTSD-IPCPublishedbyInternationalCentreforTradeandSustainableDevelopment(ICTSD)InternationalEnvrionmentHouse27ChemindeBalexert,1219Geneva,SwitzerlandTel:[phone]Fax:[phone]E-mail:[e-mail]’swebsiteat:(IPC)1616PSt.,NW,Suite100,Washington,DC20036,USATel+12023285056Fax[phone]VisitIPC’swebsiteat:TheauthorswouldliketothankChristineSt.Pierre,CharlotteHebebrand,ChristopheBellmann,MarieChamayPeyramayouandSamanthaDerksenforcommentsonearlierversionsofthepaper.ThispaperwasproducedunderTheICTSDGlobalPlatformonClimateChange,TradePoliciesandSustainableEnergy—aninitiativesupportedbyDANIDA(Denmark);MinistryofForeignAffairsofFinland;theDepartmentforInternationalDevelopment(U.K.);theMinistryforForeignAffairsofSweden;theMinistryofForeignAffairsofNorway;OxfamNovib;andICTSD’sinstitutionalpartnersandprojectsupporterssuchastheCommonwealthSecretariat,theNetherlandsDirectorate-GeneralofDevelopmentCooperation(DGIS),theSwedishInternationalDevelopmentCooperationAgency(SIDA);andtheInterAmericanDevelopmentBank(IADB).IPCwishestothanktheBill&MelindaGatesFoundation,theWilliamandFloraHewlettFoundationandallofitsstructuralfundersfortheirgeneroussupport.ICTSDandIPCwelcomefeedbackandcommentsonthisdocument.ThesecanbeforwardedtoMarieChamayPeyramayou,[e-mail]/orChristineStPierre,[e-mail]:Wang,J.,Huang,J.,andRozelle,S.ClimateChangeandChina’sAgriculturalSector:AnOverviewofImpacts,AdaptationandMitigation,ICTSD–IPCPlatformonClimateChange,AgricultureandTrade,IssueBriefNo.5,InternationalCentreforTradeandSustainableDevelopment,Geneva,SwitzerlandandInternationalFood&AgriculturalTradePolicyCouncil,WashingtonDC,USA.Copyright©ICTSDandIPC,2010.Readersareencouragedtoquoteandreproducethismaterialforeducational,non-profitpurposes,providedthesourceisacknowledged.TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofICTSDandIPCorthefundinginstitutions.ISSN2075-5856ClimateChangeandChina’sAgriculturalSector:AnOverviewofImpacts,AdaptationandMitigationiiiICTSD-IPCContentSFoReWoRDveXeCUtIVeSUMMARYvii1.IntRoDUCtIon12.CLIMAteCHAnGe:oBSeRVeDeVIDenCe33.IMPACtSoFCLIMAteCHAnGeonCRoPYIeLDAnDCRoPPInGSYSteMS:VIeWSFRoMnAtURALSCIentIStS43.1ClimateChangeandCropYields53.2ClimateChangeImpactsonCroppingSystems53.3ClimateChangeImpactsonLivestock64.IMPACtSoFCLIMAteCHAnGeonAGRICULtURALPRoDUCtIon,PRICeS,tRADe,FooDSeCURItYAnDFARMInCoMe:VIeWSFRoMeConoMIStS74.1ImpactsofClimateChangeonAgriculturalProduction74.2ImpactsofClimateChangeonCropPrices84.3ImpactsofClimateChangeonTrade84.4ImpactsofClimateChangeonGrainSelf-sufficiency84.5ImpactsofClimateChangeonFarmerIncome95.ADAPtIVeReSPonSeStoCLIMAteCHAnGeMADeBYGoVeRnMentSAnDFARMeRS115.1AdaptiveResponses—theGovernment115.2ProgressonImplementationofGovernmentAdaptationStrategies115.3AdaptiveResponses—Farmers126.GReenHoUSeGASeMISSIonSAnDMItIGAtIonPoLICIeSIntHeAGRICULtURALSeCtoR146.1EmissionsfromtheAgriculturalSector156.2MitigationPoliciesintheAgriculturalSector156.3PracticalMitigationActions177.ConCLUSIon19ReFeRenCeS21tABLeSAnDFIGUReS24ClimateChangeandChina’sAgriculturalSector:AnOverviewofImpacts,AdaptationandMitigationvICTSD-IPCFoReWoRDWhenboth“climatechange”and“China”aretopicsinthesamediscussion,thefocusistypicallyonenergyandmanufacturing.Whileitreceivesconsiderablylessattention,theagriculturesectorisnotaninsignificantsourceofemissions.Agricultureaccountsformorethan15percentofChina’stotalgreenhousegasemissions,nearly90percentofnitrousoxideemissions,and60percentofmethaneemissions.Excessivefertilizeruseisnotonlyfuelingamajorportionofthenitrousoxideemissionsbutalsoisraisingalarmaboutwaterpollutionfromagriculture.Atthesametime,however,thereisopportunityforChina’sagriculturesectortoplayaroleinmitigatingagainstclimatechangethroughcarbonsequestrationandadoptingproductionmethodsthatreduceemissions.Inaddition,thepoten