Micro-level analysis of farmers’ adaptation to cli

IFPRIDiscussionPaper00714August2007Micro-LevelAnalysisofFarmers’AdaptationtoClimateChangeinSouthernAfricaCharlesNhemachena,CentreforEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicyinAfrica(CEEPA)andRashidHassan,CentreforEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicyinAfrica(CEEPA)EnvironmentandProductionTechnologyDivisionINTERNATIONALFOODPOLICYRESEARCHINSTITUTETheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI)wasestablishedin1975.IFPRIisoneof15agriculturalresearchcentersthatreceiveprincipalfundingfromgovernments,privatefoundations,andinternationalandregionalorganizations,mostofwhicharemembersoftheConsultativeGrouponInternationalAgriculturalResearch(CGIAR).FINANCIALCONTRIBUTORSANDPARTNERSIFPRI’sresearch,capacitystrengthening,andcommunicationsworkismadepossiblebyitsfinancialcontributorsandpartners.IFPRIgratefullyacknowledgesgenerousunrestrictedfundingfromAustralia,Canada,China,Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,India,Ireland,Italy,Japan,theNetherlands,Norway,thePhilippines,Sweden,Switzerland,theUnitedKingdom,theUnitedStates,andtheWorldBank.IFPRIDiscussionPaper00714August2007Micro-LevelAnalysisofFarmers’AdaptationtoClimateChangeinSouthernAfricaCharlesNhemachena,CentreforEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicyinAfrica(CEEPA)andRashidHassan,CentreforEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicyinAfrica(CEEPA)EnvironmentandProductionTechnologyDivisionPublishedbyINTERNATIONALFOODPOLICYRESEARCHINSTITUTE2033KStreet,NWWashington,DC20006-1002USATel.:[phone]Fax:[phone]Email:[e-mail]’sOfficeofIFPRIweremergedintooneIFPRI-wideDiscussionPaperseries.Thenewseriesbeginswithnumber00689,reflectingthepriorpublicationof688discussionpaperswithinthedispersedseries.TheearlierseriesareavailableonIFPRI’swebsiteat’sPublicationsReviewCommitteebuthavebeenreviewedbyatleastoneinternaland/orexternalreviewer.Theyarecirculatedinordertostimulatediscussionandcriticalcomment.Copyright2007InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute.Allrightsreserved.Sectionsofthismaterialmaybereproducedforpersonalandnot-for-profitusewithouttheexpresswrittenpermissionofbutwithacknowledgmenttoIFPRI.Toreproducethematerialcontainedhereinforprofitorcommercialuserequiresexpresswrittenpermission.Toobtainpermission,[e-mail]ts...........................................................................................................................vAbstract..........................................................................................................................................vi1.Introduction................................................................................................................................12.AdaptationtoClimateChangeinAgriculture...........................................................................33.ReviewofEmpiricalAdaptationStudies...................................................................................84.ModelforEmpiricalAnalysisandDataSources.....................................................................105.EmpiricalResultsandDiscussion............................................................................................156.ConclusionsandPolicyImplications.......................................................................................27References.....................................................................................................................................29ivListOfTables1.MainFarm-LevelAdaptationStrategiesinSouthernAfrica(%ofRespondents)..................132.SummaryStatisticsofIndependentVariablesandtheirSuggestedSignwithRespecttoAdaptationMeasures..............................................................................................................143.Farm-LevelAdaptationStrategiesinSouthernAfrica(%ofRespondents)............................184.ResultsofMultivariateProbitAnalysisofDeterminantsofAdaptationMeasures.................23ListofFigures1.ClimateChangeandAgriculture:IdentifyingActorsandCriticalPointsforIntervention........52.AdaptationinAgricultureandtheRoleofInformation..............................................................73.FarmerPerceptionsonLong-TermTemperatureChanges.......................................................154.FarmerPerceptionsonLong-TermPrecipitationChanges.......................................................165.PerceivedBarrierstoAdaptationinSouthernAfrica..............................................................21vACKNOWLEDGMENTSThispaperwasfundedbyGEFandtheWorldBank.ItispartofalargerstudyontheeffectofclimatechangeonAfricanagriculturecoordinatedbytheCentreforEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicyinAfrica(CEEPA),Pretoria,SouthAfrica.ThepaperformspartofabrownbagandworkingpaperseriessupportedbyBEAFundertheproject“FoodandWaterSecu