北京空气质量以及可能影响因素调查研究

《商务统计学》课程报告北京空气质量以及可能影响因素调查研究——基于因子分析和线性回归小组成员姓名：周坤郝策张庆庆郝坤2016年5月7号《商务统计学》课程报告1摘要北京空气质量近些年成为人们关注的热点，客观地评价其变化趋势和影响因素，不仅有利于正确认识北京空气质量，也为有效预测和控制提供依据。本文主要通过对其他文献研究和空气质量评价体系，尽可能选取多的与北京空气质量可能有关的因素，希望找出具体的影响因素，更加清晰认识到北京的空气质量的罪魁祸首。通过选取北京2008年至2014年的相关数据，先通过因子分析的方法，提取四个公共因子，构建新的空气质量评价体系。然后用因子得分矩阵，得到四个的得分结果，用这个结果作为自变量，空气质量优良天数作为因变量做回归分析，最终得到一个线性回归模型，可以很好的解释北京空气质量的影响因素。关键词：北京空气质量因子分析回归分析模型构建AbstractBeijing'sairqualityinrecentyearsbecomesthefocusofpublic,objectiveevaluationofitstrendsandinfluencingfactorscannotonlyconducivetoacorrectunderstandingofBeijing'sairquality,butalsoprovidethebasisforeffectivepredictionandcontrol.Inthispaper,byfactorsotherliteratureresearchandairqualityevaluationsystem,selectthenumberofBeijing'sairqualityaspossibleandmayberelevanttofindoutwhichspecificfactors,aclearerunderstandingoftheairqualityinBeijingistheculprit.ByselectingtherelevantdatainBeijingfrom2008to2014,firstbythemethodoffactoranalysisextractedfourcommonfactorstobuildanewairqualityevaluationsystem.Thenscoringmatrixbyafactortoobtaintheresultsoffourscores,asaresultofusingthisargument,theairqualitydaystodoasthedependentvariableregressionanalysis,endupwithalinearregressionmodelcanwellexplainthefactorsthataffectairqualityinBeijing.Keywords:BeijingAirQuality,FactorAnalysis,Regression,Model《商务统计学》课程报告2目录摘要..........................................................................................................................................................................................11绪论.......................................................................................................................................................................................31.研究背景及目的............................................................................................................................................32.可能影响因素与空气质量评价体系的构建.........................................................................................32空气质量影响的因素选取............................................................................................................................................33数据分析与研究................................................................................................................................................................53.1数据采集..............................................................................................................................................................53.2数据因子分析与描述.......................................................................................................................................53.2.1数据标准化处理................................................................................................................................53.2.2因子分析和可行性分析...................................................................................................................63.2.3提取公因子............................................................................................................................................63.2.4因子命名与新空气质量评价体系的构建..................................................................................93.3因子的回归分析与描述.................................................................................................................................103.3.1因子的回归分析..................................................................................................................................103.3.2回归分析结果的解释.........................................................................................................................143.4数据可视化描述与解释..............................................................................................................................144结论.....................................................................................................................................................................................16参考文献...............................................................................................................................................................................16附录........................................................................................................................................................................................17图表目录图表1变异数总计...............................................................7图表2碎石图..................................................................8图表3因子旋转组件矩阵.........................................................9图表4组件评分系数矩阵........................................................12图表5因子得分变换............................................................12图表6回归模型摘要............................................................13图表7回归模型系数............................................................13图表8年份趋势图..............................................................15《商务统计学》课程报告31绪论1.研究背景及目的近年来工业化和城镇化的快速发展，我国的经济飞速增长。但同时出现的环境问题也日益突出，最受大家关注的莫过于雾霾与PM2.5，越来越频发的雾霾天气严重影响了人们的正常生活和身体健康。那么北京作为国家首都，经济政治文化中心，那么它的空气质量也当然备受关注，研究影响空气质量因素也显得尤为必要，因为一些预防治理政策都要以此为依据。在想到这篇文章的题目时，就想知道大家说的空气质量到底和什么因