2011全球科研经费预测

Sponsoredby:�GlobalizationNarrowsR&DGapbetweenCountries�StillInthelead:U.S.Fundsone-ThirdofGlobalR&D�FastGrowth:ChinaovertakesJapanat#2�KeyIndustryR&DSectorsGrowing2011GlobalR&DFundingForecast:CEOMessageTheyear2010wasachallengingoneforeconomiesaroundtheglobe,andtheR&Dlandscapecontinuedtochange.Fortunately,overallR&Dfundingstabilized,whichmarkedanimprovementoverthevolatilitythatcharacterized2008and2009.Asyouwillseeinthefollowingpages,thisyear’sForecastincludesnotonlyacountry-by-countryviewofinvestmentinR&DandourspecificdiscussionofU.S.R&Dfundingandperformance,butalsoabreakoutofspendingbysixkey,broadlydefinedindustrysegments–specificdiscussionofU.S.R&Dfundingandperformance,butalsoabreakoutofspendingbysixkey,broadlydefinedindustrysegments–LifeSciences,InformationTechnology,Electronics,Aerospace/Defense/Security,Energy,andAdvancedMaterials.Thesecriticalindustrysegmentswilldrivemuchofthefutureofglobalinnovation,andthoughtherecenteconomicvolatilityaffectedeachoneindifferentways,they,alongwithoverallglobalR&D,havestabilizedandarenowpoisedforcontinuedgrowthin2011.Battelle’sorganizationalstructureisdesignedtoaddressmanyofthesekeysegmentsaswellastoleverageourcapacityforinnovationBattelle’sorganizationalstructureisdesignedtoaddressmanyofthesekeysegmentsaswellastoleverageourcapacityforinnovationthroughthesixnationallaboratoriesthatwemanagefortheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy.Astheworld’slargestindependentR&Dorganization,wehavebeendedicatedtoadvancingscienceandtechnologytobenefitmankindforover80years,andwebringtogetheraworld-classcollectionofhumanandtechnologicalassetstodevelopproducts,systemsandservicesforglobalclients.Althoughthevolatilityaccompanyingtherecessionhaspassed,currenteconomicconditionsstillremainfragile.TheimpactoftheoverallAlthoughthevolatilityaccompanyingtherecessionhaspassed,currenteconomicconditionsstillremainfragile.Theimpactoftheoveralleconomicclimatein2010leadsustoforecastamodest2.4%growthforecastforU.S.R&Din2011.ThislowgrowthrateassumesalikelydeclineinfederalR&Dfundingin2011,asmanyfederalagencybudgetsarelikelytobecutoverthenextyear.Theimpactofthesereductionscouldbegreaterifnotforacontinuedexpenditurestreamresultingfrompreviouslyawardedfederalgovernment“stimulus”funding.Withoutsuchresources,investmentintheUnitedStateswouldactuallydeclineinrealtermsin2011.Thisyear’sForecastalsoaddressesthecontinuingriseofChinaasaglobalR&Dpowerhouse.NowsecondonlytotheUnitedStatesinThisyear’sForecastalsoaddressesthecontinuingriseofChinaasaglobalR&Dpowerhouse.NowsecondonlytotheUnitedStatesinR&Dfunding,Chinaisrealizingthebenefitsofanunprecedentedinvestmentineducation.Asaresult,highlyskilledworkerswillsubstantiallyboostChina’sannualGDPgrowthrateforageneration,toalevelofmorethan$120trillionby2040.Inaddition,theForecastexaminestheglobalresearchercommunityandprovidesanewperspectiveontheglobalizationofR&D.BothU.S.andnon-U.S.researchersfacemanyofthesameconcernsregardingtheirresearchchallenges.Limitedbudgetsanddevelopmenttimesareaffectingtheentireglobalresearchercommunity,andU.S.researchersinparticularfeelmorechallengedintheserespects.Whenaskedareaffectingtheentireglobalresearchercommunity,andU.S.researchersinparticularfeelmorechallengedintheserespects.WhenaskedabouttheconnectionsbetweenglobalissuesandtheirfutureR&Defforts,researchersidentifiedareasincludinghealthcarefortheaging,demandforrenewableenergy,andglobalpopulationgrowthaskeyconcernsthattheglobalresearchcommunitymustaddress.Inlastyear’sForecast,Iaddressedtheneedforsustainable,positivechangeinSTEM(science,technology,engineering,andmath)atallInlastyear’sForecast,Iaddressedtheneedforsustainable,positivechangeinSTEM(science,technology,engineering,andmath)atalllevelsofeducation.China’sinvestmentintheseareasisyieldinggreatresults,andtherestoftheworldwouldbewisetofollowasimilarcourse.UnderinvestmentinSTEM,whencoupledwithahugenumberofretiring“BabyBoomer”scientistsandengineers,iscreatinganational“innovationcrisis”fortheUnitedStatesandothernationsintheyearstocome.Aswearealwaysinterestedinprovidingthekindofdataandotherinformationthatcanhelpyou,thereadersofR&DMagazine,wewelcomeyourcommentsandsuggestions.Inthemeantime,weappreciateyourcontinuedinterestintheForecast,whichisincreasinglybeingreferencedasa“mustread”sourceInthemeantime,weappreciateyourcontinuedinterestintheForecast,whichisincreasinglybeingreferencedasa“mustread”sourceforinformationonglobalinnovation.JeffreyWadsworthPresidentandCEOBattelleTheglobalR&Doutlookfor2011isincreasinglystableandpositive,accordingtoanalysisperformedbyBattelleMemo-rialInstituteandR&DMagazine.Havingenduredoneoftheworstrecessionaryperiodsinrecentmemory,R&Dmanag-ersareadaptingtoexpectationsofmod-eratesustainablegrowthwhilecompetingonaglobalscaleformarketshareandresources.Reflectingrecenttrends,pros-pectsforR&Dfundingvarybyregion,withtheUnitedStates(U.S.)expect-ingR&DgrowthtotrackGDPgrowth,Europecontemplatingfiscalausteritythatmayrestrictinvestmentforseveralyears,andmostAsiancountriesmaintaini