欧洲风能技术论文113Impactsofwindpoweronenergybalanceofahyd

1BackgroundBasedonmodeldevelopedinEU-projectWILMAR(Windpowerintegrationinliberalisedelectricitymarkets)–Risoe,IERatUniversityofStutgart,Sintef,VTT,KTH,IMMatTechnicalUniversityofDenmark,Elkraft,Elsam,NordPoolConsultingTheworkcontinuesinIEAAnnexonWind&hydroandthemodeldevelopmentinEU-projectSupWindTheseresultspartofPhDthesisworkofJuhaKiviluoma–Largeincreasesofwindandotherrenewablesintheenergysystem2ResearchquestionsHowhydropowerregulateslargeamountsofwindpowerinhydrodominatedsystem?Howtheenergybalanceofthehydrodominatedsystemchangeswithlargeamountsofwindpower?Whichpowerplantsareaffected?Howthepriceschange?3ModeldescriptionMarketmodelofNordiccountriesandGermanyHourlytime-scaleSpotmarkethorizonLongtermmodelforwatervaluesStochasticpresentationofwind(notusedinthis)QuitedetailedunitpresentationAlsoheatareasforCHPPrimaryandsecondaryreserves(dependantonwind)SeeMeibomatDS1onThursdaymorning5Casesbase10%20%30%Windcapacity[GW]NO+SE+FIGermanyDenmark2.528.64.117.835.84.635.735.84.652.535.84.6EnergyfromwindNO+SE+FI+DK[TWh]164987119Themodelledyearhas2001profileforhydro,wind,loadandheatdemandNotverywindyAveragehydroyear6Assumptions17€/CO2tonFuelpricescenarioPlannedtransmissionlinesupto2010–FennoskaII800MW–Storaebelt600MW–NorNed700MW(connectedtoGermany)–SomeNordelinternalconnectionsImporttimeseriesfromRussiaandPolandAnnouncedpowerplantsanddecomissioningsuntil2010Windisaddedasextraproduction,nocapacitytakenawayModelpricesCurrentprices(Finland)IEA(2010)IEA(2030)Lightoil53113$/barrelFueloil4666$/barrelCrudeoil602229$/barrelCoal74694044$/tNat_gas(Europe)8.45.93.34.3$/MbtuModel[€2002/GJ]Woodwaste4Wood4.3Straw4.4Waste0Peat1.5Lightoil7.2Fueloil6.2Coal2.3Naturalgas6.2Nuclear0.3502040608010001CHP03Cond04Hydro05RoR06Wind0204060801000204060801000204060801000204060801000204060801000204060801000204060801000204060801000204060801000100200300400500020406080100Production[TWh]in2010basecaseFI_RNO_NNO_MNO_SSE_NSE_MSE_SDK_WDK_EDE_NWDE_NEDE_CSbasecase:production,consumptionandtransmission[MWh/h]10%case:production,consumptionandtransmission[MWh/h]MWh20%case:production,consumptionandtransmission[MWh/h]MWh30%case:production,consumptionandtransmission[MWh/h]MWhPrices[€/MWh]base10%20%30%17Regulationcasesin30%windcaseHydro:NO28GWSE16GWFI3GWSum47GWHighestone-hourdropinwind30GW13GW18Regulationcasesin30%windcaseHighconsumption–lowwindNuclearandhydroregulateHydro:NO28GWSE16GWFI3GWSum47GW25Conclusions20-30%windpenetrationchangestheutilisationofotherpowerproductiondecisivelyWindwillaffectpowerpricesstronglyifpenetrationgetshighAtleastinthemodelledyear,hydropowercanregulatewindtosuchextentthatusageothercondensingthannuclearisminimal(couldbecoveredbydemandsidemeasures)Limitationsforwindaremostlikelyinavailablesitesandtransmissionratherthaninregulation0102030405060€/MWhbase10%20%30%Nordicpricedurationcurve26DiscussionPowerpricewilldropifcountermeasuresarenottakenAdditionalconnectionstothecontinentalgridwouldkeepthepricesupandprovideprofitsPossibilityofincreasedconsumption:heatpumps,industry,trafficsector(oildependencyonagenda)PricedropobstaclealsoforwindMarketfailure?0102030405060€/MWhbase10%20%30%Nordicpricedurationcurve