天然气输差预测评估方法

1摘要随着天然气用量的增加,市场供需双方对计量准确度的要求越来越高,目前国内天然气市场以供方计量为准,由于诸多因素的影响,供需双方交接时的误差较大。针对输气系统的输差问题,本文从误差理论出发,以重庆地区天然气输差为研究对象,分析了产生输差问题的原因，,建立了长期天然气输差和短期天然气输差预测模型。根据天然气输差的特点，以及影响天然气输差的因素，运用灰色理论，构造了基于灰色理论的长期天然气输差预测模型；运用时间序列分解法，构造了基于时间序列分解的天然气输差预测模型。并对重庆地区巴山仪器、重庆车管所、庆铃汽车厂、西南药业公司、重庆锅炉厂、重庆大学等单位作为研究对象，进行了长期天然气输差预测，对重庆大学、巴山仪器等单位进行了短期天然气输差预测，并对预测结果进行了残差检验。并就具体实施提出了建议，对于提高重庆天然气公司效率、降低损失和成本具有重要价值。关键词：天然气输差灰色理论时间序列分解残差检验2AbstractWiththeincreaseinnaturalgasconsumption,supplyanddemandinthemarketbothonmeasurementaccuracyoftheincreasingdemands,thecurrentdomesticgasmarkettosupply-sidemeasuresprevail,becausemanyfactors,bothsupplyanddemandattheturnofthelargererror.Againstgastransmissionsystemworse,thiserrorfromtheorytotheareaofChongqingnaturalgastransmissionerrorforthestudy.Byanalyzingtheloserofthereasonsforthepoor,andestablishalong-termnaturalgastransmissionerrorandtheshort-termnaturalgastransmissionerrorpredictionmodel.Accordingtothenaturalgastransmissionerrorcharacteristics,andimpactonnaturalgastransmissionerrorfactors,thegraytheory,Graytectonictheorybasedonthelong-termnaturalgastransmissionerrorpredictionmodel;usetimeseriesdecomposition,Basedonthestructureofthetimeseriesdecompositionofnaturalgastransmissionerrorpredictionmodel.ChongqingalsoBashanapparatus,ChongqingVehicleAdministrationOffice,QinglingAutomobilePlant,SouthwestPharmaceuticalCompany,ChongqingboilerplantChongqingUniversity,andotherunitsasaresearchobjectforalongtimenaturalgastransmissionerrorforecastofChongqingUniversity,Prasarnequipment,andotherunitsoftheshort-termnaturalgastransmissionerrorprediction,predictionofresidualtest.AndtheimplementationofspecificrecommendationsforimprovingtheefficiencyoftheChongqinggascompaniestoreducelossesandthecostofgreatvalue.Keywords:Gaslosesdifferencegraytheorythetimeseriesbreaksupspoilsthebadcheckout3目录目录摘要.......................................................................................................................................1Abstract.................................................................................................................................2目录.......................................................................................................................................3一、引言................................................................................................................................51．1天然气工业现状.........................................................................................................51．2天然气输差预测的必要性...........................................................................................71．3天然气以及相近能源预测概况....................................................................................81．4本文研究的对象和主要内容........................................................................................9二、天然气输差原始数据处理................................................................................................92．1天然气输差的概念及其意义.......................................................................................92．2天然气输差原始数据的处理方法[9]...........................................................................10三、天然气输差预测方法评价...............................................................................................123.1天然气输差预测方法分类[10][11]...............................................................................123.2天然气输差预测方法选择原则[12][13]..........................................................................133.3典型的天然气输差预测确性衡量指标以及评价方法[14]...............................................163.3.1预测精确性的衡量指标..........................................................................................163.3.2预测模型的评价指标.............................................................................................184四、天然气输差预测模型......................................................................................................194.1基于灰色系统的天然气输差预测模型[15].....................................................................194.2基于时间序列分解法的天然气输差预测模型[16][17][18]...............................................214.2.1、时间序列分析的特点...........................................................................................214.2.2天然气输差时间序列分解模型...............................................................................234.2.3时序分析中各因素的确定......................................................................................244.2.4根据时间序列分解法进行预测...............................................................................25五、模型求解........................................................................................................................265.1基于灰色系统的天然气输差预测模型求解....................................................................265.2基于时间序列分析的天然气输差预测模型求解.............................................................305.3两种预测模型求解结果分析检验..................................................................................365.3.1天然气输差灰色预测模型结果检验........................................................................365.3.1天然气输差时间序列预测模型结果检验.................................................................37六、总结及其建议.....