信息化——现代化的必由之路

11223194619464356478··““””““””59““””““””““””10611MoireMoire’’sLawsLaw2002130200310020103012““””Bell'sLawBell'sLaw713Figure1.3PriceDeclinesinComputersHaveAcceleratedSince1995(logscale;index1987Q1=100)Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis19871989199119931995199719995102550100120Trenddeclineof12.1percentbetween87Q1and94Q3Trenddeclineof26.2percentbetween94Q4and99Q4Actual14GilderLawGilderLaw5522198519855656Kb/SKb/SNSFnetNSFnetTeraTeraGridGrid4040GbGb/S/S171766815MetcalfeLawMetcalfeLaw““””““””16””9171822141445457575550550Mb/sMb/s1019ABC20WorldWideWeb(WWW)HTMLXML1121””222001630(1006)(EntropiaInc.)7951503512122324132526142728””1529301631321733341835™™36193738””““””2039“”“”40199819982141422243””44234546244719801980ss19901990ss19501950ss4819501950ss19701970ss19901990ss254919501950ss19801980ss19901990ss””5019501950ss19701970ss19901990ss2651MIS/DSSMIS/DSS19501950ss19801980ss19901990ss20207070((MIS)MIS)((DSS)DSS)80809090522753541.81.82.62.62855562957583059““””60““””““””316162““””““””3263643365663467683569““””70367172377374387576““””3977…………784079801122334181824283““””844385““””86““””4487884589904691””””80/2080/20924793””””””””””””94””””489596””499798””5099””1005110110252