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SalesForecasting销售预测SalesTraining销售培训KeyConcept主要观点•Salesforecastingistheprocessoforganizingandanalyzinginformationinawaythatmakesitpossibletoestimatefuturesales•Salesforecastingistheresponsibilityoftheindividualsalesman•Salesmanareaccountablefortheaccuracyoftheirforecast•销售预测就是利用掌握的信息来尽可能地分析未来的销售状况的过程•销售预测需要每个销售人员独立负责﹗•销售人员需确保预测的准确性SalesForecastingPage1WhyDoASalesForecast?为什么要做销售预测呢?•Whendonewellitprovidessalesmanagementwithamanagementtooltoreviewtrendsinthemarket,ithelpstrackandreportopportunitiesandensuresproductavailability•如果这项工作做好了﹐它将成为销售管理者用来展望市场发展趋势的有力工具﹐而且可以帮助他们跟踪并发现市场机会﹐从而确保公司的发展SalesForecastingPage1BenefitsofSalesForecasting销售预测的好处•FactoryPlanningBecomesMoreEfficient–Improvesmaterialplanningandsupplierrelationships•reducesleadtimeandmaterialcosts–ImprovesmanagementofWorkinProcess•lowercostandlowerinventory•BetterControlofFinishedGoodsInventory–Lowerinventorylevelimprovesprofitability–Highlevelsofobsoleteproductsisaprofitnightmare•工厂的计划变的更有效﹗–改进原料计划﹐改善与供货商的关系﹐•缩短交货期﹐降低成本–改进管理的工作流程•低成本﹑低库存•更好的控制成品库存﹗–降低库存增强盈利–大量的废品成为你赚钱的恶梦SalesForecastingPage1•Moreefficientutilizationofworkforce–Lowermanufacturingcost•ProvidesManagementanEarly“Snapshot”ofBusinessPerformance–Salesonplan?–Enoughbusinessactivitytorecovercostsandexpenses?•ImprovesResponseTimeandOnTimeDelivery–RightproductsintherightplaceattherighttimeBenefitsofSalesForecasting销售预测的好处•更有效的提高生产线的利用率–生产成本降低•它是销售部门业绩表现的前期写照,能让管理预先了解–销售是否按计划照常进行﹖–是否有足够的业务量来保証盈亏平衡﹖•提高反馈时间和准时送货率–所需的产品准时送到目的地SalesForecastingPage1UseofSalesForecasts销售预测的应用•Production–productionscheduling–inventorycontrol•Purchasing–determinationofprocurementrequirements–schedulingofpurchasestogetfavorableprices•Marketing–formulationofmarketingstrategiesforproducts–settingofsalesquotas–schedulingofadvertisingexpendituresandsalespromotions•生产–生产计划–库存控制•采购–确定采购需求–编排采购计划﹐以便获得更优惠的价格•营销–制定公司的产品营销策略–设定销售额–制定广告费用计划和促销计划SalesForecastingPage1•Personnel–planningofmanpowerrequirements•Finance–establishingofoperatingbudgets–cashflowplanning,capitalbudget/expendituredecisions•TopManagement–overallplanningandcontrolofoperationsofthecompanyUseofSalesForecasts销售预测的应用•人事–编排人力资源计划•财务–制定运作费用–现金流计划﹑资金预决算方案•高层管理–综合分析公司的所有计划并负责公司的营运﹗SalesForecastingPage1InfluencesofForecastAccuracy影响预测准确性的因素•Factorsthatinfluenceforecastaccuracy:–Qualityofcustomerprovidedinformation–Qualityofsalesmananalysisofcustomerprovidedinformation–Availabilityofproductdemandhistory•影响预测准确性的因素–客户提供的信息的质量–业务员分析客户所提供的信息的质量–有可利用的产品需求历史纪录SalesForecastingPage1–Otheravailablehistory(i.e.,newproducts,designchanges,changesincustomerbase,promotionalactions,economicindicators)–Includingrightgroupofpeopleinforecastdiscussions:ateameffortisrequired(Sales,Purchasing/SupplyandManufacturing)–Discussion:OtherinfluencesonforecastaccuracyInfluencesofForecastAccuracy影响预测准确性的因素–其它可利用的历史数据(诸如﹕新产品﹑设计变化﹑客户群的变化﹑促销计划﹑经济指标)–还包括要有一组人在负责此事﹕需要一个团队努力去做﹗(销售﹑采购/供应和制造)•讨论﹕还有其它因素影响预测的准确性吗?SalesForecastingPage1ComponentsofDemand需求的组成因素•Accuracyofeachcomponentofdemandisessentialtoaccuratesalesforecasting–SpecificProduct(type,size,color,etc)–Quantity–RequiredDeliveryDate•Accuracycanbeimprovedbyunderstandingfactorsofdemandandremovinguncertaintyofdemand•只有保証每个需求环节的准确性﹐才能确保销售预测的准确性–具体产品(形式﹑尺寸﹑颜色等)–数量–送货时间•通过找出影响需求的因素并消除需求的不确定性﹐提高预测的准确性SalesForecastingPage1DemandFactors影响需求的因素•Trend–growthordeclineoveranextendedperiodoftime•Cyclical–wavelikefluctuationaroundthetrend•Seasonal–patternofchangethatrepeatsitselfyearafteryear•Random–notaccountedforbytheothercomponents(trend,cyclical,orseasonal).•趋势–未来一段时间是否增长还是衰退•周期性–在发展的趋势中出现的波浪式的波动•季节性–年复一年不断重复的模式•随机性–其它因素(除了以上提到的因素)SalesForecastingPage1Discussion:Demand讨论:需求问题•Istherea“Cyclical”factorinSanitaryProductssales?–Discussexamples•Istherea“Seasonal”patterninSanitaryProductssales?–Discussexamples•Givesomeexamplesof“Random”factorsinSanitaryProductssales•卫生产品的销售是否有周期性因素呢﹖–讨论并举例说明•本公司的销售是否受到季节性因素的影响呢﹖–讨论并举例说明•大家来举例说明本公司的销售是否有些随机性的因素SalesForecastingPage1WaystoReduceUncertainty减少预测的不确定性的方法•Continuouslyaskyourcustomeraboutdemandrequirements–Askprobing,specificquestions•Talkwithmultiplesources–Purchasing/Buyers–Planning–Sales•连续的调查清楚客户的需求–提出探究性的、具体的问题•从多种渠道了解–采购/买家–计划–销售SalesForecastingPage1•Gettoknowthe“customer’scustomer”•Analyze(andquestion)changesindemandprojections•Lookathistoricaldataonthecustomerandidentifyanydemandtrends•Discussion:Otherwaystoreduceuncertainty?WaystoReduceUncertainty减少预测的不确定性的方法•逐渐的了解“客户的客户“(间接客户)•密切的关注需求计划的变化•观察客户的历史数据﹐并分析这种需求变化的趋势•讨论﹕其它方法减少预测的不稳定性SalesForecastingPage1Workshop:GettingInformation练习﹕收集信息•Continuouslyaskyourcustomeraboutdemandrequirements…askprobing,specificquestions•Discussion:Whataregoodquestionstohelptheaccuracyofyourforecast?•坚持不懈的询问顾客的需求﹐搞清楚具体的问题•讨论﹕有哪些方面的问题可以帮助提高预测的准确性呢﹖请提出?SalesForecastingPage1•Talkwithmultiplecustomersources•Discussion:Whoaregoodsourcestotalkwithtoobtainconfirminginformation?•Discussion:HowdoyoudothiswithoutalienatingtheBuyer?Workshop:GettingInformation练习﹕收集信息•多渠道的获取客户的信息﹗•讨论﹕从谁那里能较好的获得确切的信息﹖•讨论﹕如何在没有影响客户关系的条件下﹐做到这一点﹖SalesForecastingPage1•Gettoknowthe“customer’scustomer”•Discussion:Whatisth
本文标题:销售培训资料-销售预测管理
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