财务报表分析——财务报表分析的逻辑框架

财务报表分析的逻辑框架——改编自厦门国家会计学院MPAcc教材•黄世忠主编，《财务报表分析：理论、框架、方法与案例》，中国财政经济出版，2007主要内容•通用、福特和微软的比较•财务报表分析逻辑框架•财务报表分析常用方法三大汽车公司•福特汽车（）•通用汽车（）•戴姆勒克莱斯勒汽车（）2020/2/17XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute5Microsoft的崛起•1975年4月BillGatesandPaulAllen创立了MicrosoftMicrosoftstaffphotofromDecember7,1978.Fromlefttoright:Top:SteveWood,BobWallace,JimLane.Middle:BobO'Rear,BobGreenberg,MarcMcDonald,GordonLetwin.Bottom:BillGates,AndreaLewis,MarlaWood,PaulAllenIPOinMarch13,1986,raising$61mTodate,totalcapitalraisedismorethan$62.8b2020/2/17XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute6BillGates的”裸捐”WarrenBuffettdonated$37billion,mainlytotheBill&MelindaGatesFoundation+$50三大核心问题•问题1：M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？•问题2：M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？•问题3：如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？•问题4：评判流行语“做大做强”经营规模——雇员人数经营规模——资产总额经营规模—销售收入经营分析——现金流股票市值财务实力——净资产经营绩效——净利润财务数据对比项目名称GFC公司M公司倍数GFC合计M雇员人数36.535.036.8108.35.0521.45资产总额3,7182,9522,1928,86267613.11销售收入1,8601,6261,7505,23628418.44现金流量1711862085651453.90股票市值2001963137092,5410.28股东权益68564085325400.99净利润17-105562780.79ROE25%-18%13%12%14%0.862020/2/1716盈利质量现金流量资产质量财务报表分析的三大逻辑切入点2020/2/1717盈利质量收入质量利润质量毛利率成长性波动性研发营销盈利质量分析方法2020/2/1718收入质量(QualityofRevenue)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)19991971690160114822000230173916981603200125316911609154020022841773162314742003322185516421364200436819351709142120053981926177114982006443207316011516200751118811725152620086042020/2/1719收入质量(QualityofRevenue)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)1999796072572000944535792001736-55-720027817-104720039538542004902835252005122-10620282006126-21-124322007141-387-254020081772020/2/1720利润质量(QualityofProfit)2020/2/1721利润质量(QualityofProfit)2020/2/17XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute22项目名称GMFordDaimlerChrysler200420052004200520042005销售收入1,935.171,926.041,716.461,781.011,682.261,773.65其中:汽车1,615.461,582.211,471.281,545.151,517.191,590.82金融319.71343.83245.18235.86165.07182.83净利润27.89-105.5434.8719.9829.2033.70其中:汽车-1.05-130.62-1.55-39.26n.an.a金融28.0825.0850.0858.81n.an.a经营业绩:2005vs.20042020/2/1723毛利率(GrossProfitMargin)会计年度GFCM20019.2%1.8%16.1%86.3%20027.8%6.8%18.8%81.6%20038.0%6.2%19.4%81.2%20047.0%7.8%19.4%81.8%2005-2.5%5.6%17.9%84.4%20064.8%-3.9%17.1%81.1%20076.7%7.6%24.8%79.1%200880.8%2020/2/1724M公司的成本费用结构35444952435461607667788362628777669810771115116821300%20%40%60%80%100%20012002200320042005200620072008COSR&DS&A3EStrategyEmbrace,Extend,Extinguish2020/2/1725R&D占销售收入比重2006年2248家企业集团R&D占比1.1%GM2003-20053.33%;3.34%;3.47%2020/2/1726•成本结构与风险传导资产质量资产结构现金含量退出壁垒经营风险财务弹性潜在损失资产质量分析方法技术风险•固定资产和无形资产占资产总额的比例越高，企业的退出壁垒（ExitBarrier）就越高，企业自由选择权就越小。•一般地说，固定资产占资产总额的比例越高，表明企业面临的技术风险也越大。•资产的现金含量越高，资产质量越好，财务弹性越高，反之亦然。通常杠杆比例越小，经营风险越低。2020/2/17282001年资产结构GFCM项目名称金额占比金额占比金额€占比金额占比现金及等价物3009.3%2228.0%1457.0%31653.7%应收款项541.7%220.80%643.1%376.3%存货1003.1%612.2%1728.3%10.2%长期投资501.6%250.90%-----14424.5%固定资产69521.6%78428.4%71334.4%528.9%无形资产1374.2%762.7%291.4%193.2%金融资产*1,47545.8%1,32547.9%78737.9%----其他资产*41312.7%2509.1%1647.9%193.2%资产总计3,224100%2,765100%2,074100%588100%资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2001)2020/2/17292002年资产结构GFCM项目名称金额占比金额占比金额€占比金额占比现金及等价物2256.1%29610.0%1246.6%38757.2%应收款项471.3%200.7%633.4%517.5%存货972.6%702.4%1628.6%71.0%长期投资511.4%250.8%-----14221.0%固定资产65217.7%76125.8%58831.4%233.4%无形资产752.0%632.1%492.6%172.5%金融资产*1,91451.9%1,15439.1%69637.2%----其他资产*63017.0%56319.1%19110.2%497.4%资产总计3,691100%2,952100%1,873100%676100%资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2002)2020/2/17302003年资产结构GFCM项目名称金额占比金额占比金额€占比金额占比现金及等价物4169.3%32510.4%1438.0%49061.6%应收款项541.2%270.8%613.4%526.4%存货1092.4%923.0%1528.5%60.8%长期投资601.3%190.6%-----13717.2%固定资产68815.3%73823.8%52429.4%222.8%无形资产150.3%702.3%462.6%344.3%金融资产*2,43154.4%1,23739.8%68538.5%----其他资产*71515.9%59919.3%1729.6%566.9%资产总计4,488100%3,107100%1,783100%796100%资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2003)2020/2/17312004年资产结构GFCM项目名称金额占比金额占比金额€占比金额占比现金及等价物4268.9%2819.4%1176.4%60664.2%应收款项671.4%291.0%703.8%596.3%存货1172.4%1083.6%1719.3%40.4%长期投资681.3%190.6%-----12212.9%固定资产71414.9%65621.9%56530.9%232.4%无形资产170.4%642.1%472.6%373.9%金融资产*2,69856.3%1,22440.9%69738.1%----其他资产*69214.4%61320.5%1628.9%939.9%资产总计4,799100%2,994100%1,829100%944100%资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2004)2020/2/17322005年资产结构GFCM项目名称金额占比金额占比金额€占比金额占比现金及等价物3216.7%38413.9%1266.3%37753.2%应收款项761.6%311.1%763.8%7210.2%存货1392.9%1033.7%1929.5%50.7%长期投资330.7%180.7%-----11015.6%固定资产76716.1%63322.9%66332.9%233.2%无形资产190.4%592.2%512.5%385.4%金融资产*2,67756.2%1,13641.2%69834.6%----其他资产*72915.4%39514.3%21010.4%8311.7%资产总计4,761100%2,759100%2,016100%708100%资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2005)固定资产分析固定资产（亿美元）200120022003200420052006微软232223233044通用695652688714767599福特784761738656633683戴克713588524565663710固定资产占资产总额比例200120022003200420052006微软3.4%2.8%2.4%3.2%4.4%6.9%通用21.6%17.7%15.3%14.9%16.1%32.2%福特28.4%25.8%23.8%21.9%22.9%24.5%戴克34.4%31.4%29.4%30.9%32.9%37.4%现金分析现金性资产（亿美元）微软529627728487433335通用350276476494354241福特247321344300402503戴克145124143117126131先进行资产占总资产比例200120022003200420052006微软78.2%78.8%77.1%68.7%63.6%53.0%通用10.9%7.5%10.6%10.2%7.4%12.9%福特8.9%10.8%11.0%10.0%14.6%18.1%戴克7.0%6.6%8.0%6.4%6.3%6.9%应收账款微软公司通用汽车福特汽车戴克汽车应收款项（亿美元）比例（%）应收款项（亿美元）比例（%）应收款项（亿美元）比例（%）应收款项（亿欧元）比例（%）2