15年数模美赛D题一等奖论文

ForofficeuseonlyT1________________T2________________T3________________T4________________TeamControlNumber37415ProblemChosenDForofficeuseonlyF1________________F2________________F3________________F4________________AdevelopmentdreamofapoorcountryAbstractThepremiseofasustainabledevelopmentassessmentsystemisagoodunderstandingoftheconcept.Thesustainabledevelopmentinoureyesshouldhaveagoodcurrentdevelopmentlevel,acoordinateinnerstructureandabrightprospectfordevelopment.Todescribethethreefactors,weusethePressure-State-Response(PSR)modelasabase.ThismodelusePtostandsforthepressurehumanmake,Sstandsforthenature’sstateandRstandsforpeople’sactioninsustainable.Choose30indexfromtheWorldBankData.Dividethemintothreeparts(subsystemP,S,R),normalizethem,andcalculatetheirweightbyentropymethodandgetthevalueofP,S,R.P,S,R’sweightsumreflectsthecurrentdevelopment.ThebalancebetweenP,SandRreflectsthecoordinatedegree.Thegrowthrateofthecurrentdevelopmentlevelreflectstheprospect.Sowesetupthemeasurementindicatorsofsustainabledevelopment,balance,coordinateandgrowth.Basedonthisthreeindicators,weestablishacapacityofsustainabledevelopmentindex(CSD).AccordingtothevalueofCSD,wedividetheindexinto5partsandseta5classsustainabledevelopmentsystem.Fromthissystem,weconcludethattheCSDof44countriesintheUNlistofthe48LeastDevelopedCountriesaredangerous.MauritaniahasthelowestCSD,andbeclassifiedasaveryseriousunsustainablecountry.ThenwechooseMauritaniaasaresearchobject.WefindthetopworstindexwhichcontributesmosttotheMauritania’sterriblerankandanalyzetherelationshipbetweeneconomyandecology.TheGDPandforestareahasanegativecorrelationThenaccordingtothecooperative-gametheorytofindabeststrategywhichcanmaketheecologyandeconomydeveloptogether.Undertheguidanceofthisstrategy,wemakeourplanthatweshouldfocusonthedevelopmentofnewheavyindustry,ecologicalagricultureandeducation.WhattheICMcandoisprovidingdirectinvestment,attractindirectinvestment,sponsortechniqueandfund.Inordertoevaluatetheeffectofourplan,weusegreypredictionmodeltopredictthefuturewhichbasedonthecurrentdevelopmentpattern.ThenusetheMarkov-chainpredictionmethodtopredictthefuturewhichhastakenourmeasuresandtherandomemergencyintoconsideration.ThencompareCSDvalueofthistwopattern.Wecanfindthatifwedidn’ttakemeasures,Mauritaniawillstillbeaveryseriousunsustainablecountryin2035.Ifourplanisputintoaction,itwillchangeintoaCriticalunsustainablecountryin20years.Keywords:Pressure-State-Response;Entropyweight;Cooperative-gametheoryGreypredictionmodel;Markov-chainpredictionmethodTeam#37415Page1of181.INTRODUCTIONWiththeresourceofearthisconsuminginafastspeed,moreandmorepeopleshowtheconcernaboutthefutureofhumansociety.Since1960,therehasbeenmanyexpertsstudythesustainabledevelopment.Howevermostpeople’sresearchobjectisthewholeworld,acountryoranarea.Almostnoonechoosethe48LeastDevelopedCountries(LDC)intheUNlistasstudyobject.However,LDCasacountrygroupsharemanysamepoints.Theirdevelopmentpathalsohastheconnotationoflaw.Thispaperchoosesthesecountriesasresearchobjectaimingatfindingtheregularoftheirsustainabledevelopmentpath.Thepaperisorganizedasfollows.Section2givesanintroductionoftheresearch’sbackgroundandthemeaningofthisresearch.Section3describesourunderstandingofsustainabledevelopmentindetailsandshowstheestablishprocessandprincipleofourassessmentsystemthenweestimateeverycountryofLDCandgettheircapacityofsustainabledevelopmentandrankthem.Section4providesaplanofthecountryMauritaniawhichhastheworstindexinsection3.Section5demonstratestherationalityandavailabilityofplaninsection4.Finallyinsection6wesummarizethemainconclusionofthepresentpaperanddiscussthestrengthandpotentialweakness.Table1NotationsCLCurrentdevelopmentlevelCDCoordinatedegreeGRGrowthrateofcurrentdevelopmentlevelCSDCapacityofsustainabledevelopmentSDgradeThegradeofCSDThenotationhereappearsfrequentlyinthispaper.Therearemanyothernotationsjustappearonceandtheywillbedescribedwhenitisused.2.BACKGROUNDResourcesontheearthislimited.Thethreemajorsourcesofenergypetroleum,naturalgasandcoalarenotrenewable.Howtoavoidthedevelopmentofhumanstoppedbyresourcedepletionandfulfillthesustainabledevelopmentaimisahottopicnow.Inthepasttwocenturies,developedcountrieshavegonetheroad,pollutefirst,thencontrolandreachedtoahighlevelofsustainabledevelopment.Developingcountrieswanttodevelopandberich.However,becauseoftheirweaktechniquestrengthandlowlevelofeconomicbase,wasteandpoorefficiencydevelopmentarenormalinthesecountry.Sohowtohelpdevelopingcountriesespeciallythe48LeastDevelopedCountriesintheUNlisttorealizethesustainabledevelopmentiswhatthispaperfocuseson.3.WHATISSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT?Theunderstandingofsustainabledevelopmentisthekeytosolvetheproblem.Thedefinitionofthesustainabledevelopmenthasexperiencedalongdevelopmentprocess.Here,theBrundtlandCommission’sbriefdefinitionofsustainabledevelopmentasthe“abilitytomakedevelopmentsustainable—toensurethatitmeetstheneedsofthepresentwithoutcompromisingtheabilityoffuturegenerationstomeettheirownneeds”[1]issurelythemostwidelyacceptedonewithinthevariousdefinitions.Thisdefiniti