问题分析与决策(兰德公司)英文版

ThisPDFdocumentwasmadeavailablefrom(s)containedhereinareprotectedbylawasindicatedinanoticeappearinglaterinthiswork.ThiselectronicrepresentationofRANDintellectualpropertyisprovidedfornon-commercialuseonly.PermissionisrequiredfromRANDtoreproduce,orreuseinanotherform,anyofourresearchdocumentsforcommercialuse.LimitedElectronicDistributionRightsForMoreInformationCHILDPOLICYCIVILJUSTICEEDUCATIONENERGYANDENVIRONMENTHEALTHANDHEALTHCAREINTERNATIONALAFFAIRSNATIONALSECURITYPOPULATIONANDAGINGPUBLICSAFETYSCIENCEANDTECHNOLOGYSUBSTANCEABUSETERRORISMANDHOMELANDSECURITYTRANSPORTATIONANDINFRASTRUCTURETheRANDCorporationisanonprofitresearchorganizationprovidingobjectiveanalysisandeffectivesolutionsthataddressthechallengesfacingthepublicandprivatesectorsaroundtheworld.PurchasethisdocumentBrowseBooks&PublicationsMakeacharitablecontributionSupportRANDRAND-INITIATEDRESEARCHThisproductispartoftheRANDCorporationoccasionalpaperseries.RANDoccasionalpapersmayincludeaninformedperspectiveonatimelypolicyissue,adiscussionofnewresearchmethodologies,essays,apaperpresentedataconference,aconferencesummary,orasummaryofworkinprogress.AllRANDoccasionalpapersundergorigorouspeerreviewtoensurethattheymeethighstandardsforresearchqualityandobjectivity.CollectingtheDotsProblemFormulationandSolutionElementsMARTINC.LIBICKI,SHARILAWRENCEPFLEEGEROP-103-RCJanuary2004TheRANDCorporationisanonprofitresearchorganizationprovidingobjectiveanalysisandeffectivesolutionsthataddressthechallengesfacingthepublicandprivatesectorsaroundtheworld.RAND’spublicationsdonotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionsofitsresearchclientsandsponsors.R®isaregisteredtrademark.©Copyright2004RANDCorporationAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyformbyanyelectronicormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinformationstorageandretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromRAND.Published2004bytheRANDCorporation1700MainStreet,P.O.Box2138,SantaMonica,CA90407-21381200SouthHayesStreet,Arlington,VA22202-5050201NorthCraigStreet,Suite202,Pittsburgh,PA15213-1516RANDURL::Telephone:[phone];Fax:[phone];Email:[e-mail]:0-8330-3561-4ThisresearchinthepublicinterestwassupportedbyRAND,usingdiscretionaryfundsmadepossiblebythegenerosityofRAND’sdonors,thefeesearnedonclient-fundedresearch,andindependentresearchanddevelopment(IR&D)fundsprovidedbytheDepartmentofDefense.iiiPrefaceAcrossawidevarietyofendeavors—fromhomelandsecuritytofor-eignintelligence,criminalinvestigation,publichealth,andsystemsafety—failuretoanticipatedisasterhasbeenascribedtotheinabilityto“connectthedots.”Thispaperarguesthatto“connectthedots,”onemustfirst“collectthedots.”Alltoooften,theinabilitytoforeseetroublehascomeaboutbecausepiecesofinformationsitinthisorthathead.Weretheycombined,troublewouldbeeasiertoforesee,butwheneachstandsalone,nocompellingconclusionssuggestthem-selves.Thispaperinvestigatessomeofthebarrierstocirculatingtell-taleinformationanddescribessomeapproaches—institutional,social,andtechnological—thatwouldbegintobringinformationtogetherinameaningfulway.ThispaperresultsfromtheRANDCorporation’scontinuingprogramofself-sponsoredindependentresearch.Supportforsuchresearchisprovided,inpart,bydonorsandbytheindependentre-searchanddevelopmentprovisionsofRAND’scontractsfortheop-erationofitsU.S.DepartmentofDefensefederallyfundedresearchanddevelopmentcenters.Itisexpectedtobeofinteresttothebroadpolicymakingcommunity,particularlythosewhoareconcernedabouthowtorecognizeandtherebyavertdisastrousevents.ivCollectingtheDots:ProblemFormulationandSolutionElementsRANDScienceandTechnologyTheRANDCorporationisanonprofitresearchorganizationpro-vidingobjectiveanalysisandeffectivesolutionsthataddressthechal-lengesfacingthepublicandprivatesectorsaroundtheworld.RANDScienceandTechnology(S&T),oneofRAND’sresearchunits,as-sistsgovernmentandcorporatedecisionmakersindevelopingoptionstoaddresschallengescreatedbyscientificinnovation,rapidtechno-logicalchange,andworldevents.RANDS&T’sresearchagendaisdiverse.Itsmainareasofconcentrationarescienceandtechnologyaspectsofenergysupplyanduse;environmentalstudies;transporta-tionplanning;spaceandaerospaceissues;informationinfrastructure;biotechnology;andthefederalR&Dportfolio.InquiriesregardingRANDScienceandTechnologymaybedi-rectedtoStephenRattienDirector,RANDScienceandTechnologyRAND1200SouthHayesStreetArlington,VA22202-5050703-413-1100x5219