振兴东北老工业基地发展金融服务业问题统计研究

I振兴东北老工业基地发展金融行业问题统计研究摘要东北老工业基地在计划经济时代为共和国的经济发展做出了巨大的贡献，但改革开放以来，其经济发展却陷入了“相对贫困化”的尴尬境地。“振兴东北,金融先行”！本文从振兴东北老工业基地发展区域金融服务业的必要性出发，对东北三省发展金融服务业的可行性进行分析。然后通过模型的建立和数据的分析研究了金融发展与经济增长之间的相互关系，接着通过对振兴东北老工业基地的金融理论指导的阐述来研究促进东北老工业基地金融发展的对策，认为东北发展金融服务业有利于改善投资环境，引导资源合理配置，优化资金投向，提高资金使用效率，拓宽资金供给渠道，缓解资金供求矛盾。同时提出在东北老工业基地地区构建完善的金融体系的若干意见，在此基础上，构建东北区域金融服务业的总体框架，最后提醒读者注意防范金融风险，并提出防范和化解金融风险的主要措施。关键词：东北老工业基地；金融体系；金融风险；金融支持IIAbstractOldindustrialbasesinnortheastoftheplannedeconomyeraoftheRepublic'seconomicdevelopmenthasmadetremendouscontributions,butthereformandopeningup,itseconomicdevelopmenthasfallenintoarelativeimpoverishmentoftheembarrassingsituation.TherevitalizationofNortheastChina,thefinancialgofirst!Inthispaper,therevitalizationofnortheastoldindustrialbaseofthedevelopmentofregionalfinancialservicesindustryneedtostartthethreenortheasternprovincesofthefeasibilityofthedevelopmentofthefinancialservicesindustryforanalysis.Andthenthroughthemodelanddataanalysisofthefinancialdevelopmentandeconomicgrowthofthemutualrelationsbetween,andthenthroughtherevitalizationofnortheastoldindustrialbaseoffinancialtheorytostudytheguidanceofthenortheastoldindustrialbasetopromotefinancialdevelopmentmeasures,thattheNortheastconducivetothedevelopmentofthefinancialservicesindustrytoimprovetheinvestmentenvironment,andguidetherationalallocationofresources,optimizethecapitalinvestmenttoimproveefficiencyintheuseoffunds,expandchannelsofcapitalsupplytoeasethecontradictionbetweendemandandsupplyofcapital.Atthesametime,theoldindustrialbaseintheNortheastregiontobuildasoundfinancialsystem,anumberofviews,onthisbasis,tobuildthenortheastregionoftheoverallframeworkofthefinancialservicesindustry,thelasttoremindthereadersattentiontothepreventionoffinancialrisks,andguardagainstanddefusefinancialrisksofthemainmeasures.Keywords:OldIndustrialBaseinNortheast;TheFinancialsystem;Thefinancialrisks;Thefinancialsupport目录序言··········································································································1一、东北老工业基地金融现实状况和发展金融服务业的重要性···············21.东北三省金融发展状况········································································22.东北老工业基地发展金融服务业的重要性··············································3二、金融发展与经济增长之间的相互关系:基于东北三省的实际考察·····51.模型的设定:向量自回归模型(VAR)······················································52.数据的来源························································································53.检验的步骤和结果··············································································5三、振兴东北老工业基地的金融理论指导··················································71.金融结构论的理论指导意义·································································72.金融深化论的理论指导意义·································································73.金融约束论的理论指导意义································································8四、促进东北老工业基地金融发展的对策···············································81.东北金融业发展的前提和基础·······························································82.实现金融机构的多元化发展·································································83.建立多层次的资本市场·······································································84.建设以大连为核心的区域金融中心························································9五、振兴东北老工业基地发展区域金融行业应当构建完善的金融体系··91.设立东北老工业基地振兴基金······························································92.发展风险投资事业··············································································93.尽快建立一批综合性的地方商业银行··················································104.大力发展城市合作银行······································································115.尝试建立中外合资银行······································································116.大胆探索建立省属政策性银行····························································117.组建东北振兴银行············································································118.加快民间金融业发展·········································································12六、振兴东北老工业基地发展区域金融服务业必须防范金融风险···········131.东北老工业基地金融风险的突出原因·····················································132.防范金融风险的主要措施·····································································133.防范金融风险的当务之急·····································································14参考文献··································································································16致谢··································································································17序言优先发展重工业的赶超战略(forging-headdevelopmentstrategy)和历史上的工业积淀,造就了东北老工业基地在计划经济时代的辉煌,为共和国的经济发展做出了巨大的贡献。然而自改革开放以来,由于国家发展战略的调整和自身体制转轨滞后等因素的影响,东北老工业基地的经济发展与东部沿海经济发达地区相比,增长速度明显放慢,发展差距逐步拉大,经济发展陷入了“相对贫困化”的尴尬境地。为协调区域经济发展和贯彻实施科学发展观,党的十六大在提出了全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标的同时,把振兴东北老工业基地作为实现新世纪战略目标的一项重大的战略举措,为老工业基地的改造和振兴带来了前所未有的发展机遇。东北老工业基地改造和振兴的一个带有根本性的目标是要把老工业基地建设成为继长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和环渤海三大地区之后的我国第四个核心经济区。金融是现代经济的核心,发挥着动员和配置社会闲散资金,提供经济资源在不同的时间、地区和行业之间转移的途径,提供解决激励问题的方法,促进公司治理和风险的管理(博迪、默顿,1995)。众多的实证研究表明金融发展与经济发展存在着互为因果的关系,金融发展可以促进经济的长期增长。“振兴东北,金融先行”这一战略构想已经在政府、金融界和理论界达成了一致的共识。为了发挥金融对东北老工业基地振兴的扶持作用并制定相应的金融发展战略,以下三个紧密相关的问题值得进一步研究:第一,东北老工业基地的金融发展现状如何?第二,目前的金融发展是否促进了老工业基地的经济发展?第三,如何促进东北老工