失去制空权？-美国空军的危机感

LosingAirDominance?HardLessonsinStrategicPlanningWhatisAirDominance?•Airsuperiorityoverenemytomeetjointforcegoals•Freedomtoattack…anytarget,withmissionsuccess•Freedomfromattack…defeatofenemyfightersandSAMs•Freedomtomaneuver…forforcesonlandorseaOperationDesertStorm,1991GroundAttackAirSuperiority43,73523,455IraqandAfghanistan0500010000150002000020042005200620072008OEFCASOIFCAS0500100015002000250030003500400020042005200620072008OIFOEFMunitionsDropped2004to2008SortiesFlown2004to2008ThePlanAfter1991•SuccessofF-117in1991GulfwarsetAirForcepositiononstealth•Fighterforcestructurecutby44%asColdWarended•Replacementstrategy:•1991:AdvancedTacticalFighterprogramdown-selecttomaintainairdominancetechnologies•1994:JointStrikeFighterresearchinitiatedasaffordablestealthfighter/attacktoreplaceF-16andA-10forcestructure•“Neveragainbuyanon-stealthyfighter”–ChiefofStaffGen.McPeak0100200300400500600700800636873788388939820032008F-117F-22F-15EF-16(A/B/C/D)A/OA-10F-15(A/B/C/D)F-111F-5F-4F-105MajorFighterAircraftBuys1963-2008*Estimates59F-117sToday’sCAFpurchasedTheForceMixActiveComponent199505001000150020002500199019952000AircraftUnder18yrsAircraftOver18yrsOnly6aircraftover18yrs.•Forcehealthyinmid-1990s•Steadyfighterbuysin1980srecapitalizedforce•1995:Legacyfightersover18yearslessthan1%ofactiveforceActiveFighterandAttackAircraftA-10,F-4,F-111,F-15,F-15E,F-16,F-117,F-22TAIActiveOnly2003OperationIraqiFreedom:AircraftFeltTheirAge•DeclinefromOperationDesertStormaveragedover10%•F-15Caverageage=18years50556065707580859095100F-15CF-15EF-117F-16DesertStorm:Data28Feb91IraqiFreedom:DataAverageMissionCapableRatesOperationDesertStormvs.OperationIraqiFreedom•F-22isfirstsupersonicstealthaircraft•2engine,supercruisedesignwithampleinternalmissiles•Designedtoassureairdominancethroughfleetlife~2040–DependsonnumberofaircraftprocuredF-22sF-15C/DF-15EF-117FromThreeFighterstoOne•F-117:Stealthattackofheavilydefendedtargets•F-15E:Advancedair-to-groundplatform•F-15:Airsuperiorityfighterwith100kills,noaircombatlosses665TotalActiveF-15,F-15EandF-11755200410F-22183CurrentlyFunded381F-22sAirForceRequirementHowtoSeeStealth•ThisF-15EfromLakenheathonanOIFmissioncarriedfuel,targetingpods,air-to-groundweaponsandair-to-airmissilesexternally•Incontrast,theF-22hasfourinternalweaponsbaysandtargetingintegratedwithitsavionics•InternalfuelandweaponsbaysgreatlyimprovetheF-22’sstealth–Thetwoside-baydoorsareopenhereNOTSTEALTHSTEALTHF-22andF-35:PartnershipF-22technologydevelopmentandriskreductionflowtoF-35RadarF119/F120EngineDevelopmentIntegrated,openarchitectureavionicsUniqueF-22CapabilitiesAdvancedLOMaterialsandManufacturingComputer-basedmaintenance050100150200250300889398200320082013F-35F-22F-15EF-16(A/B/C/D)A/OA-10F-15(A/B/C/D)TruetoPlan:MajorFighterAircraftBuys1988-20151991GulfWarEstimateF-22andF-35wouldhaveledtosmallerforce,moreprecisionandsurvivability,nolegacyaircraftComptroller’sPlanDecember2004:PBD753(FY06PB)$10.5BCut$46.1BCutMoreO&ScostsforoldFighters~1285funded190197~2,167req’t.~1772QDR•PBD753cut$10BfromF-22program(100aircraft)F-22F-15CF-15E•Pushedlong-termfundingfarbelowstatedrequirement050100150200250300889398200320082013F-35F-22F-15EF-16(A/B/C/D)A/OA-10F-15(A/B/C/D)Crisis:MajorFighterAircraftBuys1988-20151991GulfWarEstimateBudgetcutsshrinkforcebelowQDRrequirementTheLegacyForceMixActiveComponent0500100015002000250019901995200020052008AircraftUnder18yrsAircraftOver18yrsOnly6aircraftover18yrs.•Steadyfighterbuysin1980srecapitalizedforce•From1990to2008,activefighterandattackforceshed~1000aircraft•1995:Legacyfightersover18yearslessthan1%ofactiveforce•2008:Legacyfightersover18years55%ofactiveforceActiveFighterandAttackAircraftA-10,F-4,F-111,F-15,F-15E,F-16,F-117,F-22784aircraftover18yrs.TAIActiveOnlyConsiderations:•Newadministrationbudgetguidance•F-22availabilityforNATO•PACOMforcestructure–OptionforJapan*Current:•ProgramofRecordis183totalaircraftbuy•Willyield~126Combat-CodedAircraft•7Squadrons18PAAF-22ForceSizingPACOMAORCENTCOMAORLangleyAFBHollomanAFBHickamAFBElmendorfAFBNATO:NoF-22s2212ThreatEnvironment•Iraq2003:2884launchesin25days–Peak:190launchesonDay15•PersistentmobileSAMsmoveddaily–SA-2,SA-3,SA-6s,Rolands–66%wereunlocateddespite12yearsofoperationsandoneyearofacceleratedSAMdestruction•Kosovo1999:894SAMlaunchesin78days–Peak:43launchesonDay3921136796926147143541491059365901909310523141991745302040608010012014016018020013579111315171921232425ThreatscanpersistforweeksevenagainstolderdefensesUSforceshavenotyetfacedSA-202884IraqiSurfacetoAirMissileLaunchesin2003SA-20RedAirSource:DoDReport,2006PRCF-10LethalSAMSandRedair•~1200F-10advanced4thGenfightersinproduction–DIAestimatessimilartoTyphoon,Rafale•Su-30andSu-33purchases•WorkonAWACS-likesystembasedonIL-76•Acquisitionof8Russianairrefuelingaircraft•Completeradarcoverageofallborders“Youwillbeoutnumbered…”ADMWillard,Commander,USPacificFleet,Sep2008GettingBackonTrack?050010001500200025001990199520002005200820142020AircraftUnder18yrsAircraftOver18yrsActiveFighterandAttackAircraftA-10,F-4,F-111,F-15,F-15E,F-16,F-117,F-22Estimate•R