投资决策 风险管理论文

I摘要建设工程中涉及的风险因素很多，在工程的建设中有投资决策的积极考虑的风险管理而导致的工程成功与消极大意而导致失败的这种典型案例很多，正是考虑到其重要的作用，本文对建设工程中投资决策风险中的风险管理进行应用研究。投资是企业发展生产、提升企业核心竞争力的必经之路。从长期的投资来看，投资风险是不可避免的。企业能否把资金投资于收益高、见效快、风险小的项目上去，对企业的生存和发展至关重要。工程建设项目风险管理已经越来越受到企业管理者的重视，合理的规避风险，有效的抵御风险的困扰，增强项目的抗风险能力，减少项目的受损失机会，降低损害程度，项目的盈利能力因此增强，项目系统建设和运营的安全可靠性大幅度提高。如果掌握了风险管理的技术，将对该企业的未来的管理水平有显著的提高和促进。本文旨在探讨如何将项目风险管理的理论、方法、技术和手段应用用于工程项目管理中，从而帮助工程项目管理者有效规避风险，实现预期收益。通过对项目的决策和实施阶段存在的风险因素进行风险分析(包括风险识别、风险估计、风险评价)，阐述了风险管理的具体内容，最终决策出从工程建设项目实施前的风险预测。评估到工程建设实施阶段的风险控制及防范措施，可给工程建设项目不同阶段的风险评估及管理工作提供参考。关键词：建设工程投资决策风险管理IIAbstractIntheinvestmentdecisionofconstructionproject，itinvolvesmanyfactors,whichexistuncertainty，thusproducingtheinvestmentdecision-makingrisk.Seenfromtheinvestmentdecision-makingprocess,theriskisinevitable.Butifriskcanbeavoidedeffectivelyandtheabilitytoresistriskcanbeenhanced,theenterprisecanreducethechanceoflossandthedegreeofloss，thusenhancingtheprofitabilityoftheprojectandimprovethesafetyandreliabilityintheconstructionofprojectsystemandoperation.Whetheranenterpriseholdsadvancedriskmanagementtechnologycandirectlydeterminewhetherthecapitalcanbeinvestedinaprojectwhichhashighyield，quickeffectandlessrisk.Thisplaysavitalroleinthesurvivalanddevelopmentofanenterpriseandtheriskmanagementofinvestmentdecisionsofconstructionprojectalreadygetmoreandmoreattentionfromtheenterprisemanagers.Intheprocessoftheconstruction,thereareprojectsthatnotenoughattentiontotheinvestmentdecision-makingriskmanagementultimatelyresultintheprojectgoalsoutofcontrolorendupinfailure.Inviewofthis,wewilldosomeresearchintotheapplicationofriskmanagementoftheconstructionprojectinvestmentdecision-makinginthispaper.Thispaperaimstodiscusshowtoapplythetheories,methodsandtechnologytotheprojectriskmanagement，soastohelptheprojectmanagersavoidriskeffectivelyandachieveexpectedreturns.Throughtheanalysisoftheriskfactorsintheprojectdecision-makingphaseandexecutephase（includingriskidentification,riskestimationandriskevaluation），thepaperdemonstratesthespecificcontentofriskmanagementandmakepredictionsabouttheriskbeforetheconstructionprojectcarriesout.Intheend，thepaperputsforwardthecontrolandpreventionmeasuresoftheriskintheconstructionprojectexecutephaseonthebasis，forthehopetoprovidereferencetotheriskassessmentandmanagementworkinthedifferentphasesoftheconstructionproject.Keywords：constructionprojectinvestmentdecision-makingriskmanagementIII目录摘要............................................................................................................................错误!未定义书签。Abstract..........................................................................................................................错误!未定义书签。目录..............................................................................................................................................................III引言................................................................................................................................................................11建设工程中投资决策与风险管理的基本概念....................................................................................21.1决策的概念...................................................................................................错误!未定义书签。1.2风险管理的基本概念.................................................................................错误!未定义书签。1.2.1风险的含义...........................................................................................................................21.2.2风险管理的发展及含义....................................................................................................32工程建设项目投资风险管理概述...........................................................................................................82.1工程建设项目投资风险分析.......................................................................................................82.1.1投资的风险性......................................................................................................................82.1.2工程项目投资风险表现....................................................................................................92.2工程建设项目投资风险管理含义............................................................................................103决策阶段的风险分析与防范措施.........................................................................................................113.1决策阶段的风险分析...................................................................................................................113.1.1市场风险.............................................................................................................................113.1.2原材料供应风险...............................................................................................................133.1.3技术风险.............................................................................................................................133.1.4管理风险.............................................................................................................................143.1.5人才风险........................................................................