上海某轨道交通深基坑工程施工风险评估_周红波

WBTU473A10004548(2006)S0190205(1972)ConstructionriskassessmentondeepfoundationpitsofametrolineinShanghaiZHOUHong-bo1,YAOhao1,LUJian-hua21.ShanghaiJiankeProjectManagementCo.,Ltd.,Shanghai200032,China;2.ShanghaiRuimingRealEstateCo.,Ltd.,Shanghai200120,ChinaAbstract:Toeffectivelyassesstheconstructionriskofdeepfoundationpitsinanultimate-lengthmetrolineinShanghai,theWBSmethodwasbroughtforwardtobreakdowntheworkofdeepfoundationpitsbasedontheengineeringgeologicalconditionsandtheconditionofnearbybuildingsandinfrastructurefacilitiesinthedeepfoundationpits.Thenitsriskeventsandfactorsofconstructionofdeepfoundationpitswereidentifiedbyuseofthefaulttreemethod.Finally,theconstructionriskdegreesofallkindsofdeepfoundationpitswereevaluatedanddecidedinaccordancewiththegeneralintegrationriskassessmentmethodbasedontheAHPmethod.Theabovesystemmethodcouldbeusedtoevaluatetheriskdegreeofsimilarultimate-lengthmetrorailwaylines.Keywords:ultimate-lengthmetroline;deepfoundationpit;generalintegrationriskassessmentmethod;AHPmethod,faulttreemethod,[1-2]WBS34.243km2865mQ4Q3.19030.31.5m0.50.7m1.50m222-22-236m412mWBS4IWS1SMWIIWS2IIIWS3IVWS41[3]WBSI1Table1WorkbreakdownandencodeWS(1~4)ASMWWS1BWS(2~4)B1WS(2~4)B2WS(2~4)B3WS(1~4)CWS(1~4)DWS(1~3)E1WS(1~3)E2WS(1~3)E3WS(1~3)E4WS4E1WS4E2WS4E3Fig.1Risklistoftype1foundationpitAHP2,[4][5]PCP19042006CP3C4Table2Thecomparisonoftheimportantdegreeofallfactors1ijijjj3ij5ij7ij9ij2468jiPTable3Estimationoftheriskprobabilities0.00.20.20.40.40.60.60.80.81.0CTable4Estimationoftheriskeffectiveconsequence0.00.20.20.40.40.60.60.80.81.0R=C+PCPR5Table5Theriskhierarchy0.00.20.20.40.40.60.60.80.81.0I(1)6Table6ThevalueofeachevaluatedindexPCRES1A10.10.5RES1A20.40.2WS1ARES1A30.30.3RES1B10.30.3RES1B20.30.2WS1BSMWRES1B30.30.2WS1CRES1C10.20.3RES1D10.20.5RES1D20.20.3RES1D30.30.3RES1D40.20.3RES1D50.10.5RES1D60.30.4WS1DRES1D70.050.85WS1ERES1E10.30.2R=C+PCP0.1+0.50.1*0.50.55[]10.550.520.51b′=SMW[]20.510.440.44b′=[]30.44b=[]40.60.440.510.440.550.580.86b′=.1905[]50.44b=(2)[]0.470.150.060.270.06W=[]10.750.070.18w=SMW[]20.140.710.14w=[]31w=[]40.270.030.030.030.130.070.42w=[]51w=(3)111Rwb=•0.54SMW20.45R=30.44R=40.69R=[]50.44R=[]0.540.450.440.690.44B′=IRWB•=0.56IR=0.5623Fig.2Theriskcalculatedvalueofeachactivityfortype1foundationpit)IIR=0.63IIFig.3Thesortofriskcalculatedvaluesofexcavationandsupportingfortype1foundationpitIIIR=0.68IVR=0.70,(1)WBS(2)19062006(3)[1].[C]//.,2004,11:9498.(MAORu.Riskmanagementaboutundergroundengineering[C]//TheInternationalProceedingaboutEngineeringManagement,HongKong,2004,11:9498.)[2],.[M].:,2005,1:197252.(ZHOUJian,etal.Constructionengineeringriskandassuranceinmoderncity[M].Beijing:ChinaCommunicationsPress,2005,1:197252.)[3],,,.[J].,2006,43(2):10-14.(ZHOUHong-bo,HEXi-xing,JIANGJian-jun,etal,Riskidentificationandhandlingintheshieldtunnelingofmetroinsoftsoil[J].ModernTunnelingTechnology,2006,43(2):1014.)[4],,.[J].,2005,8:7580.(LIUYa-qin,YAOhao,ZHOUJian.Fuzzygeneralassessmentonthephysicalenvironmentofurbanresidentialcommunity[J].EnvironmentalPollutionandControl,2005,8:7580.)[5],,.[J].,2005():7277.(ZHOUHong-bo,ZHAOLin,DENGShao-lun.StudyonAHPmethodappliedintheriskappraisalofconstructionengineering[J].ChinaCivilEngineeringJournal,2005(S):7277.)