雷曼兄弟中国连锁百货业深度研究报告(英文)

GLOBALEQUITYRESEARCHLehmanBrothersdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.WiththeexceptionofresearchanalystsbasedinourTaiwanbranch,LehmanBrothersresearchanalystsbasedoutsidetheUnitedStatesareemployedbyforeignaffiliatesandaregenerallynotqualifiedasresearchanalystsbytheNYSEortheNASD.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINCLUDINGFOREIGNAFFILIATEDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE34ASIAChinaDepartmentStoresRidingtherisingwaveofconsumerspendingWeinitiatecoverageofChina’sdepartmentstoresectorwitha1-Positiveview.Weexpectsolidgrowthforthesector,drivenbystoreexpansions,increasingconsumptionoffashionitemsandrisingspendingpowerinChina.WebelieveChina’sdepartmentstoresectorshouldtradeatapremiumtoChinabrandedconsumerstocksinviewofits:1)highergearingtorisingfashionconsumption;2)strongercompetitiveposition(merchandisemixcanbeadjustedtomeetchangingconsumerpreferences);and3)strongerbusinessmodelwithconcessionairesales.WepreferParksonRetailandGoldenEagleRetailtoIntimeDepartmentStore.„TheongoingtrendofrisingconsumptioninChinashouldcontinuetodriverapiddepartmentstoreexpansionandthefashionsaleschannels.WeestimateChina’sfashiondepartmentstorestoachieveasalesCAGRof15-20%forthenextfewyears,underpinnedbystoreexpansions,atake-offinconsumptionoffashionandrisingspendingpower.„ComparedwithotherchainstoresinChina,wethinkthebusinessmodeloffashiondepartmentstoresisstronger;advantagesincludehighergrossmargins,lessexposuretobusinessrisks,robustgrowthinconcessionairesalesandthetake-offinfashionconsumption.„Withtheindustryatanearlystageofrapiddevelopment,webelievethekeyfactorsforsuccessarebrandname,networksize,operatingscale,expansionstrategy,balancesheetandhumanresources.„OurtoppickinthesectorisParkson(3368.HK,1-OW)foritsedgeversuspeersandmorerobustearningsgrowth,whichwethinkisunderappreciatedbythemarket.GoldenEagle(3308.HK,1-OW)is,inourview,astrongproxyforChina’sbuoyantconsumerandretailpropertymarkets.WethinkitsvaluationgapwithParksonwilllikelynarrowconsideringitsgrowthprospects.Intime(1833.HK,3-UW),ontheotherhand,appearsfullyvaluedwithdownsideriskstomarginsandsalesefficiency.WethinkitssmallerscaleandshortertrackrecordmakeitaweakerchoicewithinChina’sretailsegment.Figure1:KeyStockDataP/EPEGPotentialUp/(Downside)2008E2009E2007E-09ECompanyRatingTickerSharePrice(HKD)Target(HKD)(%)(x)(x)(x)Parkson1-OW3368HK58.973.023.931.724.80.9GoldenEagle1-OW3308HK6.658.527.828.222.40.9Intime3-UW1833HK6.955.9(15.1)34.830.01.9Source:LehmanBrotherestimates;Pricesasof30Jul2007CONSUMERChinaRetailSECTORVIEW:1-POSITIVEInitiationofCoverageCandy,Huang(LBAL,HongKong)[e-mail]2,2007(1)thattheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersreferredtointhisreportand(2)thatnopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewscontainedinthisreport.ChinaDepartmentStores2August2,2007TableofContentsInvestmentSummary.........................................................................................3CaseforaPremium.......................................................................................3Parkson(3368HK,1-OW,PT:HK$73)............................................................5GE(3308HK,1-OW,PT:HK$8.50)..............................................................6Intime(1833HK,1-UWPT:HK$5.90).............................................................6NewMillenniumNewGrowth.........................................................................7FashionChainsDeserveaPremiumtoOtherChains,inourview............................9TopPicks...................................................................................................12ExtensiveNetwork(ledbyParkson).................................................................13OperatingScale(ledbyParkson)...................................................................16ExpansionModel(ledbyParkson)..................................................................19CustomerLoyalty(ledbyGE).........................................................................21BalanceSheetStrength(ledbyParkson)...........................................................22HumanResources(ledbyParkson)..................................................................23Conclusion.................................................................................................24InvestmentRisks.............................................................................................25Valuation......................................................................................................26PricetoEarnings.........................................................................................26DiscountCashFlow............