故障预测与健康管理(PHM)技术的现状与发展

265VoI.26No.520059ACTAAERONAUTICAETASTRONAUTICASINICASept.20052005-06-102005-07-258632005AA4119201000-6893200505-0610-07PHM1MichaeIG.Pecht221.1000832.CALCE20742StatusandPerspectivesofPrognosticsandHealthManagementTechnologiesZENGSheng-kui1MichaeIG.Pecht2WUJi21.InstituteofReIiabiIityEngineeringBeijingUniversityofAeronauticsandAstronauticsBeijing100083China2.CALCEEIectronicProductsandSystemsCenterUniversityofMaryIandCoIIegeParkMD20742USAPHMPHMPHM--PHMPHMPHMV215.7AAbstractThispaperbriefsthepotentiaIbenefitsofPrognosticsandHeaIthManagementPHMintheIightofitse-voIvinghistory.TheissuesofPHMsystem-IeveIappIicationisoutIinedandacognitionmodeIfordiagnosticsandprognosticsisbuiItbasedontheintegrityofman-machine-environment.ByusingthismodeIvariousdiagnosticsandprognosticsmethodsarecIassifiedandanaIyzedandawhoIepictureofPHMisdrawn.UncertaintyisacriticaIfactorofPHMitsreguiremensdefinitionguantitativeassessmentandverificationmethodoIogiesarediscussed.FinaIIykeyissuesofimpIementingPHMarecitedwiththegoaIofpracticaIuses.KeywordsprognosticandheaIthmanagementdiagnosticsprognosticscognitionmodeIOSS1272%PHMCBMCOTSAL2~42070CBM2070A-7EEMSPHM530BITEHMSHMPHMHUMS6ICAS78ADAPT9ICAS810PHM3410123PHM5PHMPHM1PHMPHM4JDISJSFPHMAM4AMIDMSEDMSECBSODM11912OSAPHM811314PHM1Fig.1Diagnosticsandprognosticsprocess2!#$21234precursor2Fig.2ThecognitionmodeI815!!$BIT72626FACNDBITF/A-18C1996~199888%MFHBFA1116BITBITCNDRTOK17CNDCND17~19BIT1820BIT1718!#$!/41000!1f400021322233Fig.3Symptombasedmet1od182442442%4%4Fig.4Probabiiistictrendanaiysismodei2ANN82122ANNseededfauitANN//ANNANN/8265PHM323255ANN255Fig.5SystemmodeI-basedtrendanaIysismodeIEMA25MATLABEMAFDCLGSTCMTFDC53.415CALCEESPCLCM262LCM66LCMFig.6LCMmethodoIogyLCM40TDDBCFF28LCM29SRMS30JSFDC/DC3132LCM33342.5precursorLCMESDTDDB20%35362.692626337!#1/2137/Dempster-Shafer213839407ANN417Fig.7DataintegrationofgearboxLCM34243PHM3.18448Fig.8DamageseverityanddiagnosticsconfidenceIeveIBIT344441545prognosticshorizon153.2PHMtestbenchJSFSFET11JSF0365PHMARLMDTB41IMPACMET464PHMPHMCBMALPHM!PHMPHM#-!#!BITCNDLCM#LCMLCM1AlfordLDJr.J.AerospaceandElectronicSystemsMaga-zineIEEE200116233-37.2GartnerDLDibbertSE.A.AUTOTESTCONProceedings2001IEEESystemsReadinessTechnologyConferenceC.2001.3ByerBHessAFilaL.A.AerospaceConference2001IEEEProceedingsC.2001.4HessACalvelloGDabneyT.A.AerospaceConfer-ence2004Proceedings.2004IEEEC.2001.5AndyHess.A.NDIA4thAnnualSystemsEngineer-ingConferenceC.2001.6GillJJ.A.AerospaceConferenceProceedings2000IE-EEC.2000.7ByingtonCSWatsonMRoemerMJ!#$.A.Aero-spaceConference2003Proceedings.2003IEEEC.2003.8ByingtonCSRoemerMJGalieT.A.AerospaceConfer-enceProceedings2002IEEEC.2002.9AraizaMLKentREspinosaR.A.AUTOTESTCONPro-ceedings2002IEEEC.Oct.2002Pages818-841.10BridgmanMS.A.AerospaceConferenceProceedings2002IEEEC.2002.11PowrieHEGFisherCE.A.AerospaceConference1999ProceedingsC.1999.12SuLPNolanMDeMareG!#$.A.AUTOTESTCON'99IEEESystemsReadinessTechnologyConferenceC.1999.13HarmanRM.A.AerospaceConferenceProceedings2002IEEEC.2002.14NickersonBLallyR.A.AerospaceConference2001IEEEProceedingsC.2001.15http//!#$.J.OualityandReliabilityEngineeringInternational199814331-337.18PechtMDubeMNatishanM!#$.J.IEEETransac-tionsonAerospaceandElectronicSystems2001371266-272.19PechtMRamappanV.J.IEEETransactionsonHybridsandManufacturingTechnology19921561160-116420KirklandLVPomboTNelsonK!#$.A.AerospaceConference2004Proceedings.2004IEEEC.2004.21HallDLMcMullenSAH.Mathematicaltechniguesinmul-tisensordatafusionM.BostonArtechHouse2004.22WilliamsJHDaviesDrakeAPR.Condition-basedmainte-nanceandmachinediagnosticsM.Chapman&Hall1994.23NatkeHGCempelC.Model-aideddiagnosisofmechanicalsystemsfundamentalsdetectionlocalizationandassessmentZ.SpringerVerlag1997.24KacprzynskiGJGuminaMRoemerMJ!#$.A.Pro-ceedingsofASMETurboExpo2001C.NewOrleansLAUSA2001.25ByingtonCSWatsonMEdwardsD!#$.A.AerospaceConference2004Proceedings.2004IEEEC.2004.26RamakrishnanAPechtM.J.IEEETransactionsonCom-ponentsandPackagingTechnologies2003263625-634.27ValentinROstermanMNewmanB.A.TheAnnualRe-liabilityandMaintainability2003ProceedingsC.TampaFloridaJanuary27-302003.28Miltonohring.ReliabilityandfailureofelectronicmaterialsanddevicesM.AcademicPress1998.29http//!#$.A.Aero-spaceConferenceProceedings2002.IEEEC.2002.35http//