2009年的美国中学生建模A题特等奖论文

HiMCM09TEAM22392009-111/49Water,WaterEverywhereMathematicModelsofaUSNationalWaterStrategy2009HiMCMProblemATeam2239HiMCM09TEAM22392009-112/49SummaryTheultimategoalofourwholemodelingistodevisenationalwaterstrategiesmainlyconcernedwith6aspects:conservation,efficiency,markets,collaboration,improvedtechnologyandinteragencycoordinationincrease.Also,wepredictthetrendofitsdevelopmentinthefuture.Thuswebuildfourmodelstotally.ThefirstmodelpredictsthefreshwaterwithdrawalsoftheUnitedStatesatastatelevelfrom2010to2025.Webasicallyapplytheregressionanalysistothedataofstate-levelfreshwaterwithdrawals.Wehavetakenanappropriatelevelofaccuracybasedontheusageofthedata.Thesecondmodelisgenerallycommittedtotheplanofwatertransfer.Wehaveleveledeachregionintermsofitswatershortagedegree.Also,wehavebuiltamodelofmaxspanningtreetogettheshortestrouteoftransfer.WehavedrawnontheexperienceofChinesewatertransferringprojecttocalculatethecapitalcostoftheproject.Thethirdmodelestimatesthedesalinationplantconstructionandtheprocessingcostbyestablishingasequence.ThefourthmodelsimulatesthewaterpricerisetofindtheUSwaterpricecap.WehavealsoresearchedmeasuresofSupervisoryControlandDataAcquisition(SCADA)system,waterpurification,remotesensingtechniquesandGeographicInformationSystemtorelievethewatershortagebefore2025.Thefifthmodelisdevotedtotheeconomic,physical,culturalandenvironmentalimpactofdifferentmeasuresdiscussedabovebyusingAnalyticHierarchyProcess(AHP).Finally,wehavefiguredoutanactionplanofUSNationalwaterstrategiestoachieveourcommonultimategoalinWATER2025.Inanutshell,wehaveadoptedfivemodelsindistinctivethoughts,coveringpredictionsofalltimes,totheidealsimulationsandpredictions.HiMCM09TEAM22392009-113/49Content1.Introduction...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….……...…………….…………52.RegressionModelsofwateruseintheUnitedStates...…………….…………………………………………62.1Introduction...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….…………………….….62.2RestatementandAnalysis...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….……62.3AssumptionsandJustifications...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………62.4Variables...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….……...…………….………72.5EstablishmentoftheModel...…………….……………………….……...…………….…………………………72.6Evaluation...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….…………………………203.Conservation,Efficiency,andMarkets...…………….……………………….……...…………….………………213.1WaterTransfer...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….……..…………….213.1.1WaterStorageandDemandGrading...…………….……………………….……..………….213.1.2Modeling...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….………….…24TransferCost...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….………273.1.3evaluation….……………………….……...…………….……………………….…………………..…….283.2WaterDesalination...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….………….…283.2.1AssumptionsandJustifications...…………….……………………….……...……….…………283.2.2Price,SitesandMethods...…………….……………………….……...…………….………………293.2.3Modeling...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….…….………303.2.4Impacts...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….……………….313.3WaterPriceRiseofDomesticWater...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………323.3.1Introduction...…………….……………………….……...…………….…………………………………323.3.2WaterValueModeling...…………….……………………….……...…………….…………………323.3.3WaterPriceModeling...…………….……………………….……...…………….…………………333.3.4WaterPriceCalculation...…………….……………………….……...…………….………………333.3.5ComprehensiveEvaluationofWaterValue...…………….…………………………………333.3.6USWaterPriceCapCalculation...…………….……………………….……...……….…………343.3.7ConclusionandSuggestions...…………….……………………….……...…………….………353.3.8Impacts...…………….……………………….………….…………..…………….………………………354.ImprovedTechnology...…………….……………………….……...……………………….……………………….……374.1RemoteSensingTechniques(RST)...…………….……………………….…...…………….………………374.2GeographicInformationSystem(GIS)...…………….……………………….….…………….……………374.3SupervisoryControlandDataAcquisition(SCADA)System...…………….………………….……374.4WaterPurification...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………………….……405.AnalyticalHierarchyProcessofImpactsEvaluation...…………….…………….……………….……...….425.1IntroductionandRestatement...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………425.2Variables...…………….……………………….……...……………………………….…….……………………….…425.3ProcedureI:DrawtheHierarchyImage...…………….……………………….……...………….…………425.4ProcedureII:ConstructaComparisonMatrix...…………………………….……………………….……43HiMCM09TEAM22392009-114/495.5ProcedureIII:CalculationofTheVectorofWeighingandCoherenceCheck...….…………445.6ProcedureIV:Hierarchytotaltaxisandcoherencecheck...…………….……………………….……455.7Results...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….……….………….……….…465.8Evaluation...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….……...…………….……476.Appendix...…………….……………………….……...…………….…………………….……...…………….………………486.1Reference...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….……...…………….……486.2Program...…………….……………………….……...…………….……………………….……...…………….………486.3PositionPaperfortheUnitedStatesCongress...…………….……………………….……...…………49HiMCM09TEAM22392009-115/491．IntroductionTheU.S.isfacingashortageoffreshwaterthattheEarthhasafinitesupplyof,storedinaquifers,surfacewatersandtheatmosphere.AcrossAmerica,thenation’sfreshwatersuppliescannolong