我国企业的跨国并购风险研究

云南财经大学硕士学位论文我国企业的跨国并购风险研究--以汽车业为例姓名：易丹丹申请学位级别：硕士专业：世界经济指导教师：陆亚琴2011-05I20012009II;;;AbstractIIIAbstractSinceChinahasenteredintoWTOin2001,ChineseenterprisesbegantotakeM&AabroadfrequentlyinthecontextoftherapidpaceofglobalizationandgloballytransitionalM&A.Inordertoseekbroaderdevelopmentspaceandabundantresources,ourenterprisesbegintoimplementtransitionalM&Astrategypositivelytomeetchallenges.OursaleamountofautoindustryexceededAmerican’sattheveryfirsttimein2009,rankingfirstworldwide.ThefastdevelopmentandprosperityofourautoindustryisoneelementofourconstanttransitionalM&Aintheautofiled.Meanwhile,thedetrimentoffinancialcrisisprovidesanappropriateopportunityforourautoenterprisestobottom-fishforeignautoones.However,opportunityandchallengealwayscoexistinthesame.WecanexpandmarketsandtakeresourcespromptlythroughtransitionalM&A,andshouldmeetchallengesofthetargetenterpriseselectionrisk,M&Anegotiationrisk,financingrisk,politicalandlegalrisk,aswellasintegrationriskmeanwhile.ToincreasesuccessrateoftransitionalM&A,weshouldpreparefortheidentification,measurementandpreventionoftheM&Ariskduringitsperiodofpreparation,dealandfinalintegration.Accordingtotheirdevelopmentstatusquo,ourautoenterprisesshouldlearnbothsuccessandfailureexperiencefromothers,buildingrationalandeffectiveriskpreventionmechanisms,finallyincreasemissionsuccessratebasedonthecomprehensiveunderstandingofthecharacteristicsofinternationalautoM&Adevelopment.Thisessaywhichhas7chaptersisastudyontheriskandriskpreventionofourautoindustry’stransitionalM&A.Thefirstchapterexplainsthestudybackgroundandmeaning,anddefinestransitionalM&AandM&Arisk.ThesecondoneexplainssomeprinciplesoftransitionalM&Aanditsrisk,andM&Ariskaccessandanalysis,andexpressesthedomesticandabroadstudyofthestatusquoofM&Arisk.Meanwhile,Ifindthatdomesticstudyonthisissuelacksdeepquantitativeanalysis.Thethirdpartisanalysisonthestatusquo,traits,andthemainproblemsofourautoAbstractIVindustry’stransitionalM&A.Nextchapteranalysestheriskresourcesfromthreedifferentperiods:pre-M&Aperiod,M&Aperiod,andafterM&Aperiod.ThefifthsectorishowtomakethequantitativeanalysisofriskaccessofM&Awithfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethodandmodelofgreyrelationalanalysis.Thefollowingchaptergivescorrespondingriskpreventionmeasurestothestatusquoofourautoindustry,suchasthelackofriskpreventionintuition,nonsufficienttransitionalM&Aexperienceandimperfectionofriskpreventionmechanisms.Theverylastchaptersummarizestheproblemsalreadydiscussed,andgivessomesuggestionstoourautoindustry’stransitionalM&A.Keywords:M&A;Risk;RiskAssessment;Riskprevention12070802090WTOWTO220082002,200950%,75%85%,-,,3(Cross-bordermergersandacquisitions),,,mergeracquisition(ForeignDirectInvestment)4(1)(2)(3)19211983[1][2]512536471).Stephen·HymerE·HelpmanE.Krugman(1985)[3](2)RH.Coase(1937)CoasePJBucklcyM.Casson(1976)[4]83ABABBAAB4,Pedro·ConzalezGeraldo·M·VasxoncellosRichard·J·KishQQ1596Healy(1992)1+12RobertJ.BorghesePaulE.Borghese(2001)PhilipH.Mirvis1992Tetenbaum1999710C..20002004[5](2001)[6](2003)[7]AHP-GRAM2004[8]2002[9]111218851001956CA101958[10]20091300100020093.1[10]20091379-34.3%-31.5%-13.8%48.3%12.9%133.12009()()()(%)2,576,62810,383,8311,821,7344,964,5232,166,2386,862,161939,4691,812,688999,463,158,413,158,4172,249,061605,9893,407,163228,028245,334466,4561,072,355617,821357,39090,679354,5093,462,7623,182,61713,790,9942,049,7625,209,8572,632,6947,934,5161,557,2902,170,0781,090,1393,512,9265,711,823-148.3-20.2-13.812.9-31.5-28.2-14.6-33.9-8.2-34.320081412003201037A0ABABBSUV2200467002009122(3)153.2[11]548.9%20041020092067002575KL2005750550MG5300752545TFMG2005200729-59-347920091243BACUV1618100%2010320101-815.5%20103200417207080WTO2018[12]20091975020550MG21[13]2223[15]2418,25[16]26[17]IBMPCIBM272829R=f(PC),RPC[18],,,1965L.A.Zadeh[19]1U2A3(4)V30{0,1}5R(6)B,P:,U(5.1)rijuivj(U,V,R),ai(5.2),:31X01X0(1),2X02KX0k.X:X0=X0(1),X0(2),X0(n)X1X2XkXX1=(X1(1),X1(2),X1(n))Xk=(Xk(1),Xk(2),Xk(n))X0,X1,X2,,Xnξi(k)=(max))(max)()((max))(max(min))(min10iiiiiikxkx∆+−∆+∆ρρ5.3ξi(k)kXXXXkρ0ρ1,ρ=0.5))()(max(max(max))(max0kxkxikiii−=∆5.4)(11kNrNkii∑==ξ(5.5)))()(min(min(min))(min0kxkxikiii−=∆32:[20]5.15.25.10.2840.1530.0400.0970.2650.1615.2Xj0.3350.280.040.090.2450.010.2250.090.220.080.050.3350.050.3000.0750.2950.0650.215B=A∗R,U={}V={}L,L=0.2Xi0.2Xi=1Xi0.2Xi=05-21011000100111R0110101001012R0101011010103RA=(0.284,0.153,0.040,0.097,0.265,0.161);33)(1ijinijraB∧∨==10≤≤ijrB1=A∗R1=(0.638,0.362)B2=A∗R2=(0.517,0.483)B3=A∗R3=(0.361,0.639)0.6380.5170.361321L=0.25.2XK=321XXX=1100101000101100115.1X0={}161.0,265.0,097.0,040.0,153.0,284.0,X0X0=284.0161.0,284.0265.0,284.0097.0,284.0040.0,284.0153.0,284.0284.0=1,0.539,0.141,0.342,0.933,0.5675.410XX−=(0,0.461,0.141,0.342,0.067,0.567)20XX−=(0,0.539,0.859,0.342,0.933,0.433)30XX−=(1,0.461,0.141,0.658,0.933,0.433)))()(max(max(max))(max0kxkxikiii−=∆=1))()(max(max(max))(min0kxkxikiii−=∆=05.3ξi(k)=(max))(max)()((max))(max(min))(min10iiiiiikxkx∆+−∆+∆ρρρ=0.55.3345.3ktK=110.5200.7800.5940.8820