全球顶级CEO的演讲IBM-English

Goodevening!ItisagreathonorformetosharethisstagewiththeLordMayor,chiefexecutiveofHannover,withMr.Yang,andinafewminuteswithChancellorKohl.Ihavebeenlookingforwardtothiseveningforalongtime,becauseIhaveknownformanyyearshowimportantCeBITistotheglobalInformationTechnologyindustry.SobeforeIgoanyfurtherIwanttothankyouverymuchforinvitingmetoparticipateinthisimportantforum.NowIhavegivenalotofthoughtastowhatIwouldsaytoyouthisevening.Ontheonehand,IamhereasarepresentativeoftheInformationTechnologyindustryontheeventthatisbiggerbyordersofmagnitudethananyothertechnologyexhibit.Thatisquiteastatementinaindustrythatisgoodatmanythings,especiallycelebratingitsowncreations.Ontheotherhand,likemostofyou,Ihavespentmostofmyprofessionallifeasacustomerofthisindustry.SoIknowthatafterthesplashandpromisescomestheharshlightofmorningandoftenthecustomerisleftstandingalonewonderingwhathappened,orastheheadofoneofourmostimportantGermancustomersputit,Yoursisanindustrythatisverygoodatweddingsandnotsogoodatmarriages.Sotonight,whileIwilltalkaboutthepowerandpotentialofInformationTechnology,IhopethetemperofmyremarkswiththeperspectiveIhadwhenIcametoIBMfiveyearsago,theperspectiveofacustomer.Nowitiscertainlyeasytoseewhyrawtechnologydominatestheseevents.Itisadoptive;itisbreathtaking;anditispenetratingeveryaspectofourlives.TodaytherearemorePCssoldannuallyintheworldthanTVsorcars.Thetypicalluxuryautomobiletodayhas20to30microprocessorsinit,morecomputingpowerbyfarthanwasinsidethelanding-craftthattookthefirstastronautstothemoon.LastyeartherewerefivetimesmoreE-mailmessagessentthanthenumberofpiecesofpapermaildeliveredworldwide,2.7trillionE-mails.AndIgotmorethanmyshare.Thereisanotherwaytolookatwhatisgoingon.Inthemid-1970s,thefirstsupercomputersappeared.Theywerecapableofabout100millioncalculationspersecond.Andtheycostaboutonemilliondollars.Todaythelaptopcomputerthatcollegestudentscarryintheirbags,packs,istwiceasfastasthatfirstsupercomputer,anditcostslessthan3000dollars.Thetrendindatastorageisevenmoreimpressive.Intheearly80s,thestandardunitofcomputerstorage,onemega-byte,oronemillionbytesofinformation,costabout100dollars.Today,itis10cents.Intwoyears,itwillcost2cents.Thesegainsaredrivenbycontinuousadvancesinhowwepackinformationintosmallerandsmallerspaces.IftheUSLibraryofCongresscouldshrinkitscollectionsof17millionbooksbythesamefactorwejustdiscussed,itcouldreplace800kilometersofshelfspacewithlessthan40metersofspace.Theseadvancesaregoingtocontinueandacceleratetheratemicroprocessors,storage,communications,memory,andalltheotherenginesthatarepropellingthisindustryorcontinuetoleadtotheproductsofthefaster,smaller,andlessexpensive,justastheyhavefor30years.Butaswestandheretoday,theopeningofCeBIT,weareonthethresholdofaveryimportantchangeandtheevolutionofthisindustry.Inmanyways,thisindustry,averyemitoryindustry,isabouttoplayoutinitsmostimportantdimension.Thatisbecausethetechnologyhasbecomesopowerfulandsopervasivethatitsfutureimpactonpeopleandgovernmentsandallinstitutionswilldwarfwhathashappenedtoday.Ibelievetherearetwotrendsthataremostsignificanthere,andbaretheclosestwatching.Thefirstiswhatwecalldeepcomputing.Thetermisinspiredbyourchess-playingsupercomputerDeepBlue,whichIbelievemanyofyouknowcompetedwiththeGrandMasterGaryKasparovlastyear.DeepBlueisanamazingmachine,capableof200millionmovespersecond.Butspeed,whileessential,isnotenough.Afterall,DeepBlue'spredecessorwasquitefast,butitlosstoGaryKasparovtwoyearsago.Thedifferenceinsecondtimearoundwasaninfusionofknowledge,humanchessknowledge,thousandsandthousandsofchessmoves,gamesandoutcomes,capturedasmathematicalalgorithms.ThisiswhatledDeepBluetomimictheworkingsofthehumanmind,andracethroughmillionsofpossiblechesspositionsandextractthebestone.Anditworkedratherwell.ButDeepBlueisemblematicofawholeclassofemergingcomputersystemsthatcombineultra-fastprocessingwithsophisticatedanalyticalsoftware.Todayweareapplyingthesesystemstochallengesthatarefarmorevitalthanchess.Letmetalkabouttwoimportantapplicationareas,startingwithsimulation.Simulationisaboutreplacingphysicalthingswithdigitalthings,recreatingrealityinsidethesepowerfulcomputersystems.Inthefarmersuitacleindustry,theabilitytosimulatetheinteractionofchemicals,anddoitinthecomputerratherthanintest-tubesandPetridishes,canspeedupbyyearsthediscoveryandtestingofnewfarmersuitacle.Mercedes,BMW,Fiat,Volvo,SAAMalldesigncarstodayoncomputers,nophysicalmarkups,nomodels.Andaviationdoesso,pioneermanyofthesetechniques,andBoeingbrokenewgroundwhenitdesignedthe777airplaneentirelyoncomputers.Itwasaveryboldmove,andevensomeofBoeing'sengineershadtrepidations.IhadtrepidationsbecausethreemonthafterIjoinedIBMIwentouttoBoeingtoseemygoodfriendFrankSCHURZ,whowastheCEO.AndFranksaidtome,Sincethisnewairplanewasbuiltonyourcomputers,maybeyoushouldgoonthefirstflight.AndIsaid,Itismywife'sbirthday.Andhesaid,Ididnoteventellyouthedateyet.Coward!Computersimulationsavestime,savesmoney,anditgivescustomersacompetitiveadvantage,anditcandomorethanthat.RecentlytheUSdepartmentofenergyaskedIBMtobuildagiganticsupercomputertosimulatenuclea