安全裕度研究与应用进展

杜志明教授范军政(北京理工大学爆炸灾害预防控制国家重点实验室):62012010=随着人们对安全认识和需求的不断提高,安全裕度的概念越来越多受到工程设计界及人们日常生活的关注笔者综述了安全裕度概念在不同工程技术领域应用情况,重点讨论了在压力容器设计机械加工电力系统运行航空飞行管理军备等复杂系统研究中安全裕度的含义安全裕度设计方法以及应用安全裕度进行安全评定的方法通过对安全裕度应用情况分析,表明安全裕度已经成为现代科学技术领域和日常生活中不可缺少的重要概念,广泛受到科技工作者和管理人员的高度重视笔者还分析了目前安全裕度研究和应用方面存在的问题,提出了应尽快开展安全裕度理论的系统研究,使这一重要概念从目前主要以定性讨论为主上升到定量计算,建立安全裕度学科,并且使安全裕度理论成为安全科学重要组成部分的观点=安全科学;安全评价;安全裕度;风险评价;结构设计;系统运行;综述ProgressinStudyandApplicationofSafetyMarginDUZhi2ming,Prof.FANJun2zheng(StateKeyLaboratoryofPrevention&ControlofExplosionDisasters,BeijingUniversityofScience&Technology)Classificationandcodeofdisciplines:620.2010Abstract:Astheawarenessanddemandofsafetyincreasing,theconceptofsafetymarginappearsmoreandmoreinengi2neeringdesignandpeople.sdailylife.Afterreviewingtheapplicationsoftheconceptofsafetymarginindifferentscienceanden2gineeringfields,theimplication,designmethod,andthemethodofapplyingsafetymargininsafetyassessmentinthestudyofpressurevesseldesign,machineryprocessing,operationofpowersystem,aircontrol,andarmamentsystemwereemphaticallydis2cussed.Throughanalyzingthesituationofapplicationofsafetymargin,itdemonstratedthattheconceptofsafetymarginhasbe2comeindispensableinthefieldofmodernscienceandtechnologyandpeople.sdailylife.Scientificandtechnologicalpersonnelandmanagementstaffhasbeenpayingmoreandmoreattentiononit.Theexistingproblemswerealsoanalyzed.Itsuggestedthatsystematicstudyofsafetymarginisurgentlyneeded,andthequalitativediscussionofthisconceptshouldbeturnedtoquantitativediscussion.Anewdisciplineofsafetymarginshouldbeestablished,andthetheoryofsafetymarginshouldbemergedintoasanimportantcomponentofsafetysciences.Keywords:SafetyscienceSafetyassessmentSafetymarginRiskevaluationStructuredesignSystemoperationReview1,,,,,,,14620046ChinaSafetyScienceJournalVol.14No.6Jun.2004,[1]22.1,:1,DyFSDa:Da=DyFS,DcDy,DU,LULWFL:LU=FLLW,,n,Lj(j=1,2,,,l)iSiRi,Zi=Ri-Si(i=1,2,,,n),Zi[0;,[K(PK)],|[K(PK)]|=0,M=RS-L,L)));RS))),RS=6Si;,RS=maxs1,62si,,,6jsi,,,6nsi,,,JB4732)19955-6,S,Sm,S=2SmaxSmGB150)199856R,R[[R],,,2.2,,,:=-(=/),,,7%~8%/0,J.D.McCalleyB.A.Kraus[2],,(DL/T620)1997)56,60kV,1.635kV,44kV,1.2,199556(),,(),(),,,,2.3,,,,,,,,,GJB1389)199256,#7#:EMC():,6dB,20dBGJB1579)19935620dB,50dBEMC,EMCEMCEMCmdB=SdB-IdB,mdB))),dB;SdB))),dB;IdB))),dB:mdB\6dB,;0mdB6dB,;mdB[0,-,It,IMNFIt,m=IMNF/It,mdB=20lg(IMNF/I)It[0.1IMNF,,GJB1389)199220dB;It[0.15IMNF,GJB786)1989;It[0.45IMNF,GJB786)1989,,,2.4,,,h,:(1)hx,Mh=rx-R,rxhx;R(2),Mv=h0-hx,h0()hx:MW=h-hx()MD=Dmax-D(),Dmax=7(h-hx)p(P),D,[3],2.5,,(),;,,(),,;,,,2.6,,5~10[4]50%,,30,,,,2.7,,,,(FormingLimitDiagrams,FLD)(FormingLimitCurves,FLC),,,FLDFLC,,,FLC,FLC,;FLC,;FLC,010%#8#ChinaSafetyScienceJournal142004,5%,,:Stl4ZF;r()n(),2.8,,,,/0,,(),,1999(EuropeanCommission)/0(SINTAP),SINTAP(FAD)(CDF),7[5]FAD,:Kr=f(Lr),Kr=JeJ12Kr=KIKIC;Lr=PP0,P,P0(Lr,Kr)FAD,CDFJJIC,Jf(Lr),J=Jc[f(Lr)]-2,,,CEGB1976R6,1986R6,2001R6R6R6-op.1SINTAP0:f1(Lr)=(1-0.14L2r)[0.3+0.7exp(-0.65L6r)]:f1(Lr)=(1+0.5L2r)-12[0.3+0.7exp(-0.6L6r)],J,DtJDt=dnJRy(,dnRy/Ewn),CVDAL(F)=1-exp[-230(F-1)2],,F:L=0,F[1,;0L[0.99,1F[1.1,;L0.99,F1.1,,,1995SAPV)1995B.F.SongW.Jiang[6]M:Song3,,,,,:(1),,,,,,,(2),(3),,,,,4,#9#::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(收稿:2003年10月;作者地址:北京市海淀区中关村南大街5号;北京理工大学爆炸灾害预防控制国家重点实验室;邮编:100081)1GJB1389)1992;GJB1579)1993;JB4732)1995;DL5073)1997;SAPV)1995;CVDA)1984[S],1992;1993;1995;1997;1995;19842J.D.McCalley,B.A.Krause.Rapidtransmissioncapacitymargindeterminationfordynamicsecurityassessmentusingartificialneuralnetworks[J],ElectricPowerSystemsresearch1995,34:37~453,.[J].,2003,13(1):72~744RobertJ.Scheuplein.Pesticidesandinfantrisk:Isthereaneedforanadditionalsafetymargin?[J].RegulatoryToxicologyandPharmacology,2000,31:267~2795MilneI,AinsworthRA,DowlingARetal.CEGBReportR/H/R62Revision3,AssessmentoftheIntegrityofStructuresContainingDefects[Z].UniteKingdom:CentralElectricityGeneratingBoard,19866B.F.SongandW.Jiang,Anequivalentlinearmethodforstructuralsystemreliabilitywithnonlinearsafetymargins[Z],Comput.Struct,1995,55:1095~1100#10#ChinaSafetyScienceJournal142004安全科学技术人才交流园地本期论文作者简介杜志明,,,1962,,,100万文,19682,1990,;2001,2001,,,10郑双忠,,1996,,1999,,20002001-19997,,5656565656/0,20于英,,1957919821,19821~19994,3,/019994,段耀勇,,19696,1996,,30刘瑞霞,1977121995,/0/0/0,/0,10