我国居民消费与经济增长分析

熊爱华:当前我国经济增长面临一些问题和矛盾,一方面,进入2008年经济增长变缓迹象开始显现;另一方面,对经济增长拉动弹性作用很大的居民消费拉动作用在逐年下降,远远低于我国投资和进出口的作用究其原因,主要是我国当前居民消费低下,一旦外部环境发生变化,经济增长必然放缓通过大量统计数据,分析居民消费对经济增长贡献率,以及消费失衡分析,并进一步分析我国居民消费低下的原因,在此基础上提出通过居民消费推动经济增长的对策:居民消费;经济增长;居民消费率;GDP,/0(GDP=C+I+NX),2008,,,,,,,,,1979-198260%,1983-200040%,200140%2007GDP,1114%GDP,414,GDP3816%,413217,6214%¹,,,1.1978-2008(1),45153%,15192%,34179%,3176%GDP2001-2008,GDP,20032715%,:20100606:/0(09BJGJ16):,(250014)¹5:GDP6,2008131126GDP,200361143%2008,,,,,11979-2008(%):56(2007)2.1978-2008(C0),(G)(I)GDP,,OLS,:lnGDP=015567616*lnC0+010592607*lnG+013887098*lnI+019406442(1)(6165)(0159)(7101)(6116)R2=019996,R2=019995,F(3,27)=21340125GDP,C0GDP015568,1%,GDP015568%,30,(1),GDP,GDP,11999-2008GDP(%)1999115731112126-11262000211341323164-01162001210331403196-0107200211343108513901712003112431548119-01092004118951138152018020052112416171603183200611864172618131412007212961086190310320082110516271900129:56()3.,,127:(1),,,,,,,,,,,,1978-2008GDP,2004,GDPGDP,40173%,200841113%(2),,,,21978-2008GDP(%):56()(2),,17%-18%,(GDP)7-8,28%2005-2007215212216,2006¹,,,,/0/0,,,,,;;,,,,(3),,,GDP1120-2100,,,/,GDP20031000,20062000,,,128¹/0:56,562008-08-03(6).,,2006GDP40%,,50%1.,10GDP,2002,GDP(3),31999-2008GDP:56520086:1978,GDP,1979198619901999200120022007,GDP1997-2008,,714%,415%,,,,2.,,,,,1978-20083431415780176,133164760,,,,7%(2),,013014,2000,0141(3),,1292-(%)199921649101520002178791720012189991520023111181520033123181520043120991520053122481820063127871220073133061812008313155178:56(2009)31999-200819990139013013420000141013201352001014201320136200201430132013620030144013401372004014501350137200501450137013820060149601356013782007015200801469:563.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2002,,,,,,,:1.,,2.GDP,130,,,,,,,,,3.,,,,,,,,4.,,,,,5.,,,,,,,,,,,:[1]:56,56200620[2]/0:56,562008-08-03(6)[3]:56,5620086[4]:56,5620083AnAnalysisofResidentConsumptionandEconomicGrowthinChinaXIONGA-ihua(SchoolofManagemen,tShandongUniversityofFinance,Jinan250014,P.R.China)Abstract:Chinaiscurrentlyfacedwithmanyproblemsinitseconomicgrowth.Ononehand,China.seconomicgrowthhassloweddownsince2008.Ontheotherhand,themipactofresidentconsumptionhasbeenplayingaev-erdecliningroleineconomicgrowthinthepastyears,laggingfarbehindinvestmentandexport.ThereasonisthathouseholdconsumptionisstillquitelowinChina.Inthisscenario,economicgrowthwillinevitablyslowdownwithanegativeexternalshock.ThispaperanalysesthecontributionofresidentconsumptiononChina.seconomicgrowthwithamplestatisticaldata.Wealsoidentifythereasonsforlowdomesticdemandandfurtherputforthpolicymiplicationsregardinghowtopromoteeconomicgrowththroughexpandingresidentconsumption.Keywords:residentconsumption;economicgrowth;householdconsumptionrate;GDP[:]131