消费需求与经济增长关系的计量经济分析

90。。“”、。“、、”。。。2665202011-03-311964-1961-。。。197832、。。F064.1A1004-292X201201-0121-04AnEconometricAnalysisontheRelationshipbetweenConsumerDemandandEconomicGrowthSUNHai－tao，SONGRong－xing（QingdaoTechnologicalUniversity，QingdaoShandong266520，China）Abstract：Consumerdemandisdrivingeconomicgrowth，oneofthetroika，illustratesthegrowthinconsumerdemandineconomicimportance.Sincereformandopening，withtherapiddevelopmentofthenationaleconomyandconsumerincomeincreases，consumptioninChinashowedasignificantincrease，consumptionstructurehasbeencontinuouslyoptimized.Basedonthebasictheoryofeconometrics，consumerdemandandeconomicgrowthbasedonthedialecticalrelationshipbetween，thechoiceofChina'seconomicdevelopmentsince1978of32yearsandconsumerdemanddata，usingdifferenteconometricmethods，fromeconomicgrowthinfactoranalysis，economicgrowth，theimpactonconsumerdemandandconsumerdemandinthethreeaspectsofeconomicgrowthandconsumerdemandvalidatedquantitativerelationshipbetweeneconomicgrowthandmutualinfluence，whiletakingadvantageofthemethodofGrangercausalitytestconfirmedthatconsumerdemandandreciprocalcausationbetweeneconomicgrowth，theimpactofrelationship.Establishmentofquantitativerelationship，thesearchfortrendsbetweenthetwo，toprovideaquantitativebasisforscientificdecision-making.Keywords：Consumerdemand；Economicgrowth；Measuringeconomic121··201212t-C0.9588930.1964794.8803720.0004LOG△TCNP0.6284650.0628499.9995460.0000LOG△TCAP0.2565260.0422896.0660860.0001LOG△TNXP0.1206770.0163947.3612220.00000.9968497.4826690.9960611.0943430.068681-2.3063620.056605-2.11321522.45090F-1265.405WD1.472760F-0.000000。。1978-2007。。“(1978-2004)”1978-2004、、、。。。、。、。、。、1.。。。1989-20080.880.720.890.70。1374.221788.5。。2.。19783605.6200934090315.81%。1985、1988、1992、1993、1994、199520%1993、199434%36%。、、、、。、、。TGDPTCNPTCAPTNXP。1978、TGDP=A·TCNPα1·TCAPα2·TNXPα3EViews5.01。1t-C0.7834050.1205386.4992120.0000LOGTCNP0.5280360.04781011.044560.0000LOGTCAP0.4614970.03801112.141170.0000LOGTNXP0.0084990.0034802.4421530.02400.9996999.9453750.9996540.9050310.016830-5.1803490.005665-4.98400666.16418F-22164.48WD0.662271F-0.0000001F22164.48F0log(TGDP)=0.783405+0.528036×log(TCNP)+0.461497×log(TCAP)+0.008499×log(TNXP)0.9996545%tTGDP。5%LM122··51979-2009197982.00199044.33200153.17198073.04199162.32200243.66198181.59199262.81200338.29198256.92199350.46200445.13198362.16199458.61200550.41198459.45199562.32200645.93198563.50199670.83200753.70198655.61199759.77200853.95198753.79199875.42200956.84198864.66199992.92198967.72200079.379.69370.0018。2。2log(△TGDP)=0.958893+0.628465×log(△TCNP)+0.256526×log(△TCAP)+0.120677×log(△TNXP)0.9960615%t△TGDP。5%LM0.03340.8542。1α1=0.6284651%0.628465%α2=0.2565261%0.256526%α3=0.1206771%0.120677%。、。。。TCNP=β0+β1TGDP+μβ0β1μ。1978-2009EViews5.03。t-C4268.1241073.3103.9765990.0004TGDP0.4917800.00865156.844050.00000.99080144458.700.99049446853.624568.06419.752036.26E+0819.84364-314.0325F-3231.246WD0.096315F-0.000000330.9900801F3231.246F05%LM29.53940。4。t-C12.50935144.77230.0864070.9318△2TGDP0.4187680.02970214.098960.00000.876533426.18670.8721232171.414776.494716.211801688243416.30521-241.1770F-198.7807WD2.430120F-0.00000044△2TCNP=12.50935+0.418768×△2TGDPF198.7807F05%LM1.42120.2332。TGDP10.4187680.418768。、。。。rhmnr=α+α1h+α2m+α3nααrα1hrα2mrα3nr。123··201211978-20091979-20095。51990、2002、2003、2004200650%50%。1TGDP100.0090.0080.0070.0060.0050.0040.0030.0020.0010.000.0019791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720091。TGDP＝α1hr·△TGDPTGDP×100％1978-20091979-20096。61979-2009TGDP%%%197911.0819905.2120015.5419808.93199110.4020024.5819817.39199213.8820035.1419826.61199317.1620047.9819836.96199421.0720058.25198410.96199516.1320068.62198514.78199612.26200710.5319868.7719976.0420089.9619879.0519984.5020095.44198816.3919994.9319898.4620006.6419965.2121.071997。2009。。。7。7FPLM(1)PAIC1TGDPTCNP0.151760.00582318.46824TCNPTGDP0.495230.00046020.189892TGDPTCNP0.002850.20284517.94015TCNPTGDP0.001680.77468719.568753TGDPTCNP0.048110.17554717.89252TCNPTGDP0.019150.99560919.446974TGDPTCNP0.026520.10217417.85557TCNPTGDP0.053960.01792719.603971FP5%TGDPTCNP0.15176TCNPTGDP0.495235%1P5%。23FP5%TGDPTCNP0.002850.04811TCNPTGDP0.001680.019155%。、、。1。20.418768。3。4。、、。【】[1].[M].20009(1).[2].[M].20078(2).[3].Eviews[M].20072(1).[4].[J].200511.[5]2010[M].20099.124··