LED进入我国普通照明产品的节能潜力分析

200516319LED1,212213000722100053:LEDLEDLEDLiuHong1,2ShenTianxing1GuBing2WangChuiping2(1,SchooofArchitecture,TianjinUniversity,Tianjing300072,2,ChinaGreenLightsProjectPMO,Beijng100053)AbstractInthispaper,weusetechnicalinnovationandmarketmodelingtheorytoanalysisLEDlightingtechnicaldevelopmentanditsmarketpenetrationprocessbyestablishinganationalsimulatingmodel.Thus,wecouldforecasttheimpactofLEDonChina’sgenerallightingsector,andestimateitsrelevantelectricitysavingoflightinginnextdecade.Keywords:LED,generallighting,electricitysaving,forecast1.LEDLEDLEDLEDLED2.LEDLEDLEDPearlLEDPearl(2-1)PearlY=L/(1+ae-bt)……………………………………………………………(1)Y——L——ab——t——12-1PearlPearlS(d2Y/dt2=0)t=lna/bY=L/2a,baPearlb,abm(k)(p)(s)b=f(m,k,p,s,…)bb/p0bb/s0PearlLEDLED212224PearlLED21LEDLED65751201451902401451902402006333858455570455570(/)20104853989511016095110160200015001000200015001000200015001000201073351773351735218(/)201522115221154321001001001001001001001001002002102040102040102040(1000)2020657278657278657278205010015020025030019952000200520102015202020252030020406080100120140199520002005201020152020202520300501001502002503001995200020052010201520202025203022LED050010001500200020012006201120162021202605001000150020002001200620112016202120260500100015002000250020012006201120162021202622LED02040608010020012006201120162021202602040608010020012006201120162021202602040608010020012006201120162021202622LED3,LED3.115313-13-11530%20%40%60%80%100%012345678()313.2LEDLED202020003-21530%3-2202020000%2%16%0%0%10%0%-8%-8%3.315,3-1333-3112344223433443.4LEDLED3-53-64LED2018LED1%20202.5%LED20151%202014%LED220131%201520209%69%LED201320021800202025132020234120201542202017297000.20.40.60.82001200420072010201320162019%35LED1000150020002500300020022005200820112014201720203651.ArthurD.Little.Inc.“EnergysavingsPotentialofSolidStateLightinginGeneralLightingApplication”ReportforU.S.DepartmentofEnergy,April20012.HilaryGraves,“WhatifWhitelightLEDscanproducemorethan150Lumen/Wattby2020?ImplicationsforUKenergyuseandCO2emissions”BREEnvironment,Garston,Watford,WD259XX,UK3.StephenJohnson“LEDs—AnOverviewoftheStateoftheArtinTechnologyandApplication”ErnestOrlandoLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory,UniversityofCalifornia,March20024.“”20045.NavigantConsulting.Inc.“USLightingMarketCharacterization”ReportofUSDepartmentofEnergy”September20026.“DiffusionTheoryinMarketing:AhistoricalPerspective”FrankMBass19997...8.