国际贸易International-Trade

SlidespreparedbyThomasBishop国际贸易InternationalTradeDr.MiaojieYuCCERPekingUniversityCopyright©2006PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.联系信息ContactInformationInstructor教师:余淼杰博士Office办公室:郎润园621OfficeHours答疑时间:周一15:30-16:30Email:[e-mail]:6275-3109Fax:[phone]CourseWeb:符皇•IntegrationofTrade•DisintegrationofProduction•China’sCurrentTradeSituation•Sino-U.S.TradeRelationship•TraditionalTradeTheory•CurrentResearchTopics•Q&AIntegrationofTrade•Howmuchdowetrade?•TradestillremainsaseeminglysmallfractionofGDPforrichcountries.•Thedecadesleadingupto1913wasagoldenageofglobaltradeandinvestment.•Theglobalintegrationoftradekeepsthesamelevel.•Table1(Feenstra,1998)IntegrationofTradeTheWorldIsMoreIntegratedThanEver•Somefactsarehidden.•Industrialcountrieshaveincreasingsharesoftheireconomiesdevotedtoservicesratherthanmanufacturing.•Makecomparisonfromdifferentviews.•Shouldmeasuremerchandisetraderelativetomerchandisevalue-added.•Almostallcountrieshaveexperiencedsubstantialgrowthintrade.•Table2Table1.2MerchandiseTradeRelativetoGDPandMerchandiseValue-Added,1960-1990(percent)4-10Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Table1.1U.S.MerchandiseTradebyIndustry,2001,SharesofTotalTradeandProductionorUse(percentages)4-11Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Table1.3PercentageDistributionofExportsbyMajorTradingGroups,1985-1998HowtoExplainGrowingTrade?•TradeLiberalization–GATT/WTO–RegionalTradeAgreements:CUSFTA,NAFTA,CARICOM,CACM,MERCOSUR,ASEAN,SPARTECA.•FallingTransportationCost•2/5tradegrowthcanbeexplainedbythesetwofactors.•Whentradingpartnersbecomesmoresimilarinsize.--Example:WorldGDP=150;–Scenario1:CountryA=100;countryB=25,countryC=25–Scenario2:CountryA=50;countryB=50,countryC=50–Maximumexportsaredifferent.DisintegrationofProduction•Disintegrationofproductionitselfleadstomoretradedue,inlargepart,tothecalculationmethod.•Outsourcing•Barbiedollstory(Tempest,1996)–Sellforabout$10intheU.S.–MadeinMainlandChina,butexportfromHongKongfor$2–65centscovermaterialscost,35centspayforChineselabor.–Theremaining1$fortransportationinChina–Theremaining7$fortransportation,marketing,wholesalingandretailing.–$1fortheMattel.Outsourcing•Firstmeasurement:tradeiscategorizedbytheend-user.•TheU.S.tradeshiftsawayfromagricultureandrawmaterials,andtowardsmanufacturedgoodsintheU.S.trade.•ProcessedmanufacturedgoodsplayanincreasingimportantroleinU.S.trade.•Outsourcingisimportant!•U.S.firmshavebeensubstitutingawayfromtheseprocessingactivitiesathome.Outsourcingonthevalue-chainAnothermeasurement:importedintermediategoodsTheWorldisFlat•Verticalspecification:anothernameofOutsourcing•U.S.hasadoublingoftheshareofimportedinputsbetween1975and1995forallmanufacturing.•TheU.K.showsanespeciallylargeabsoluteincreaseinforeignoutsourcing.China’sCurrentTradePerformance•TradeGrowth•TradeLiberalization•AccedetotheWTO•TradePattern•IncreaseoftheinwardFDICCER,Dr.MiaojieYuGATT/WTOMembersCCER,Dr.MiaojieYuTradeOpenness•Chinabecamethe143rdmemberoftheGATT/WTO•Chinakeepsalargetradesurplus.•Tradeopennessis$2,170billion,whichismorethan63%ofcurrentGDPin2007•Thethirdlargestoneintheworld•CurrentExportis$969billionandimportis$792billion.•Sotradesurplusis$177billionin2006.CCER,Dr.MiaojieYuDramaticIncreaseinOpennessCCER,Dr.MiaojieYuTradeOpennessChina’sCurrentTradeSituation•Currenttradeopennessisaround64%ofGDP.•China’sshareinworldtradehasgrownsteadilysince1979.China’sTrade•Chinahasincreaseditspenetrationintorichcountries’market.China’sTrade0500000010000000150000002000000025000000美国中国香港日本韩国德国中国2006年出口值中国2006年出口值0510152025ASEANTaiwan,ChinaUnitedStatesHongKong,ChinaJapanKoreaRep.percentageChina'sExportingDestinationyear2005year2006China’sTrade•Simultaneously,italsobecomesamoreimportantexportdestination.China’sTrade02000000400000060000008000000100000001200000014000000日本韩国中国台湾美国德国马来西亚澳大利亚泰国菲律宾新加坡中国2005年进口值中国2005年进口值China’sroleinAsianRegionalTrade•ChinaisnowamongthemostimportantexportdestinationsforotherAsianeconomiesStrongExportPotentialForwardinChina•China’sintegrationwiththeworldeconomysofarisnotunprecedentedineitheritsscopeorspeed.•ComparedtoJapan,Korea,andotherNIEsintheirfastdevelopmentperiod,China’sexportshavegrownataslowerratethantheirs.•ThissuggeststhatChinacouldmaintainrelativelyhighstrongexportgrowthforyearstocome.CompositionofTrade•Diversifyfromaninitialheavyrelianceontextileandotherlightmanufacturing.•Intheearly1990s,exportsprofilesrankasfollows:lightmanufacturing,textile,machineryandtransport(smallelectronics).•Today,Chinaexportsmoresophisticatedelectronics,furniture,travelgoods,andindustrialsupplies.Intra-IndustryTradeSources:databaseofChinaCustomsCCER,Dr.MiaojieYuOutsourcinginChinaTradeBalance•Chinakeepsamodestoveralltradesurplus.•ChinahassignificanttradesurplusfromtradewiththeU.S.•ButitwasoffsetbyanincreasingtradedeficitwiththerestofAsia.Sino-U.S.BilateralTrade•ThisyearChinareachesa$144billiontradesurpluswiththeU.S.•Simultaneously,morethan3millionworkerslostthe