中国农产品贸易进口波动因素分析

:2005206228:(1979-),,;(1978-),,;(1973-),,54()2005.5(4)VOL.5,NO.4200512JournalofNanjingAgriculturalUniversity(SocialSciencesEdition)Dec.,20051,2,1(11,210095;21,210001):2004,(ConstantMarketShareAnalysis,CMS),,,,,,,:;;:F30413:A:16717465(2005)04000605,,WTO,,2004,514.2,200327.4%,,,200323.546.4,,,,(),,,[1],,CMS,,2004514.2,27.4%,233.9,9.15%;280.3,48.07%200323.546.4,,2003,2004,46.41984,,6©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:20012002200320042001200220032004118.14124.15188.93280.30159.75180.19212.43233.905.1026.6855.90113.8610.6516.7926.017.890.990.800.961.963.163.664.832.331.211.030.777.460.470.702.651.120.050.020.00434.656.2511.6617.663.242.8524.8354.1769.790.770.760.871.200.761.8611.6930.220.811.701.330.163.132.381.743.140.560.800.300.2220.2028.8933.6040.4026.7725.8125.7630.54::,WTO+11CMS,,CMS,,,,CMS,CMS,,,CMS,,21(1)[2]:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(2)[3],74,,:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:M(1)=A,M(2)=A;Mi(1)=Ai,Mi(2)=Ai;m=;mi=iA,:M(2)-M(1)=mM(1)+[M(2)-M(1)-mM(1)]()(one-level),,,,:Mi(2)-Mi(1)=miMi(1)+[Mi(2)-Mi(1)-miMi(1)]()(two-level):M(2)-M(1)=iMi(2)-iMi(1)=imiMi(1)+i[Mi(2)-Mi(1)-miMi(1)]=mM(1)+i(mi-m)Mi(1)+i[Mi(2)-Mi(1)-miMi(1)]()()i(mi-m)Mi(1),Ai,(mi-m);Mi(1),,,,i(mi-m)Mi(1);,,,A:,,A,,;,A,,;,,:22004:;%2004280.30100.00226.7080.8853.6041.5677.546.3211.795.7210.67,2003,,,11,1,S1S2,D,M1M2,8()5©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()[4]2004,21,6.32,11.79%20042005,,,,,2004,2004,,479.5,78.2%;975.3,370%,20031991.7495.8,,108.9,725.8;232.4,20031638.9,,315.72,10.67%,,,,,,,:,,,;,,,,,,[5][6][7],,35%53%,45%,10%,,:,;,;,,,2004,,,;,;,,,,,,94,,:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:[1].WTO[M].:,2000.[2],.[J].,2004,(7).[3],.[M]1:,2001.[4]Love,James.TheDefinitionandMeasurementofInstability[J].JournalofEconomicStudies,1987,(14).[5]Anderson.ChangingComparativeAdvantageinChina:EffectsonFood.FeedandFibreMarkets,OECD.1990.[6].[M].:,1997.[7],,.[J].,2003,(1).()TradedeficitsinfluentialmechanismoninternationaltradeofChinasagriculturalproductsZHONGYu1,HUAShu-chun2,JINGFei1(1.CollegeofEconomicsandManagement,NanjingAgriculturalUniversity,Nanjing210095,China;2.SchoolofBusiness,JinlingInstituteofTeconology,Nanjing210001,China)Abstract:In2004thetradeofagriculturalproductsexperiencedanadversebalanceforthefirsttimeaftertheacces2siontoWTO.Onthisbasis,anexaminationofthecauseofagriculturalproductsimportinstabilityismadethroughconstantmarketshareanalysis(ConstantMarketShareAnalysis,CMS)fromdemand,compositionofthecommodityandcompetitivestrength.Thispaperarguesthatthedemandisforemostfortheeffectoftradedeficit;thecompositionofthecommodityissecond;anddecreasingcompetitivestrengthisbarringtheexportation.Thusweshouldimprovea2griculturalproductscompetitivestrengthontheonehand,andontheotherweshouldtransformourideologyofdeficit,whichwouldgiveusacertainstrategicenlightenmentaboutagriculturalproductstrade.KeyWords:agriculturalproducts;fluctuatingofimport;CMS01()5©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.