资本积累与创新相互作用框架下的财政政策与经济增长

3,:,,:,,U,;,2080,,,()Segerstrom(1998),:(1)();(2),2090,,,Barro(1990)Lucas(1990)Jones(1993)StokeyRebelo(1995)2090,,,,,,;041900233:2370100871:[e-mail]:010-52763644(70725006),;,,,,,Lucas(1990),1%,0.03%;Jones(1993),1%,8%,,(indetermina2cy)ParkPhilippopoulos(2004)AK,;Lucas(1988),ChenLee(2007):(1)2090,Romer(1990)GrossmanHelpman(1991)AghionHowitt(1992)(R&D-based),,Zeng(1997)HowittAghion(1998)(Capital-based),,;(2)(ArrowandKurz,1970)AK(Barro,1990)Uzawa-Lucas(GlommandRavikumar,1998)(ZengandZhang,2002),,,,:(1)(),R&D,,,R&D,;(2),,,,,,,,,:(1);(2)HowittAghion(1998)AghionHowitt(1992),R&D,,HowittAghion(1998),,,,Turnovsky(2000),-,,,KehoePrescott(2002),2030;HayashiPrescott(2002),209014190023StokeyRebelo(1995),Lucas(1990);Jones(1993),,,,,ArrowKurz(1970),;Barro(1990)AK,,;GlommRavikumar(1998)Uzawa-Lucas,(),,,,,,;,,,;,,;,,,:(1),(2),R&D;R&D,R&D,;(),1,1,1,,,:max+0(Ct(1-lt)1-)1--11-e-tdt(1),;;:(1-sK)Kt=(1-K)rtKt+(1-W)Wtlt+(1-)10itdi-(1+C)Ct-(1-sR)Qt(2)rt,Kt,rtKt;Wt,lt,Wtlt;10itdi24190023,;KWCsKsR;Qt(2),(,),:1-lt=1-1+C1-WCtWt(3)^CtCt=(1-K)rt/(1-sK)-1+(-1)(4)(),1;lt,xit,i[0,1],GtYt;,:Yt=l1-t10Aitxitdi(Gt/(Atlt)),0,,+1(5a)Aiti,At=10Aitdi(),Gt/(Atlt),(5a)Yt=(Atlt)1--KtGt,()At,,,;At,,,,,,R&D,,,,,1,,:Wt=(1-)l-t10Aitxitdi(Gt/(Atlt))(5b)Pit=l1-tAitx-1it(Gt/(Atlt))(5c)(5b)(5c);(),,,:xit=Kit/Ait(6a)Kiti,KitAit,,1,(laboraugmenting)(ZengandZhang,2002)rt,,xit:34190023,,GtAtlt,(labor-augmenting),(Atlt)1--KtGtmaxPitxit-rtKit=maxl1-tAitxit(Gt/(Atlt))-rtAitxit,:rt=l1-t2x-1it(Gt/(Atlt))(6b),:it=(1-)l1-tAitxit(Gt/(Atlt))(6c)()(verticalinnovation),(horizontalinnovation),,(AghionandHowitt,1998)Romer(1990)GrossmanHelpman(1991)AghionHowitt(1992),R&D,R&D,,,,,(arrivalrate)Poisson:t=nt(7a)0;nt(productivity-adjusted),:nt=Qt/Amaxt(7b)Qt,Amaxt=max{Ait,i[0,1]}(leading-edgetechnologyparam2eter)R&D,,:tVt=(1-sR)Qt(7c)(7c),Vt,:Vt=+t(1-)texp[-t(rs+s)ds]d(7d),,;,()(knowledgespillover)CaballeroJaffe(1993),Amaxt,0,,:Amaxt/Amaxt=nt(8a)HowittAghion(1998),:Amaxt=At(1+)(8b)t,(8b),(7b)(8a)(8b),,,,R&D,44190023HowittAghion(1998),R&D(therateofcreativedestruction),AghionHowitt(1992),(),,:CCt+WWtlt+KrtKt+10itdi=Gt+sKKt+sRQt(9);()1(competitiveequilibrium):{C,W,K,,sK,sR,Gt},{Ct,lt,{xit}1i=0,Kt,Qt}{rt,Wt,{Pit}i1=0}:1.(2),(1);2.Wt,{Pit}i1=0,;3.rt,;4.R&D;5.(2);6.(9);7.,;8.,:Kt=10Kitdi(10)9.,;10.R&D,R&DR&D(6b),,,,xit=xt,i[0,1](6a),Kit=AitxtKit(10),:Kt=xt10Aitdi=Atxt(11)kt=Kt/(Atlt),yt=Yt/(Atlt),ct=Ct/(Atlt),qt=Qt/(Atlt),gt=Gt/(Atlt)(11)(5a),Yt=(Atlt)1--KtGt(9)(2),:Kt=(Atlt)1--KtGt-Ct-Qt-Gt(12)(12)Kt,CtKtQtYtAtAmaxt541900232(balancedgrowthpath):{Ct,Kt,Qt,Yt,At,Amaxt};xt=x,kt=k,yt=y,ct=c,qt=q,gt=g,nt=n,t=,lt=l,rt=r(8a)(8b),:=C=K=Y=A=Q=n(13)ii(13),:,(7a)(7b)(7d)(7c),Amaxt,:1-sR=(1-)(1-)kgl/(r+)(14)(4)(13),r=(1-sK){[1+(-1)]n+}/(1-K),=n,n=n(k,g,l),n10,n20,n30(14):R&D1,1-sR;1;;(14),;,,,kglCWKsKsR,nCWKsKsR,,,Matlab()(bench-mark),,0.020.24,0.3Lucas(1990),2,0.02,,,(GlommandRuvikumar,1997)Turnovsky(2000),0.08;0.28,,0.28,,CaballeroJaffe(1993)1965198121567,,4%;,25%,4%,=4%(7a)(8a)(8b)(13)2%4%,=0.50.020.24,=0.274,=0.298,::=0.3,=0.5,=0.08,=0.298;:=2,=0.02,=0.274;:W=K==0.28,C=sK=sR=0()(14),,12345,,,,,641900232(K==0.28,C=sK=sR=0)1(W=K==0.28,sK=sR=0)10.100.200.300.400.500.240.240.240.240.241.611.611.621.621.620.830.850.860.870.881,,,:,,,,,(1)(14),,,2,U:,,;,,:,,,;,,;,,(),(2)(14),,,20.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.250.240.240.230.230.220.201.391.431.471.511.541.591.630.280.360.440.520.610.700.803,,:,74190023,6;,,;4(W=K=0.28,C=sK=sR=0)3(W==0.28,C=sK=sR=0)30.100.200.300.400.500.240.240.240.240.242.051.801.541.291.030.810.780.760.720.6840.100.200.300.400.500.240.240.240.240.241.461.521.581.651.730.630.670.700.740.77,,,,,,(3)(14),,,,(14),,,4,,,:,,,,,(4),;,(14),,,,,,Barro(1990),(=W=K=),U(5),84190023(),,01,01-1:sKKt=Yt(15a)Gt=(1-)Yt(15b)(15a)(15b),,,(6):,,,,,;,,,,,,(5),(14),,,,,,50.100.200.300.400.500.470.620.710.760.800.250.260.270.270.281.222.333.775.256.760.710.840.931.001.03(),,(01),1-:SRQt=Yt(16a)Gt=(1-)Yt(16b)(16a)(16b),7,,,,(14),941900237(W=K==0.28,C=sK=0),,,,,(6),,,,,,,60.100.200.300.400.500.240.380.470.540.590.240.240.230.230.231.461.351.291.151.030.750.700.640.600.56,,,,,,,,,R&D,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,U,;,:,,:,,,,R&D05190023,,Lucas(1988),,,(),,,,(transitionaldynamics),Ortigueira(1998),,:Aghion,P.andHowitt,P.AModelofGrowththroughCreativeDestruction.Econometrica,1992,60,pp.323-351..EndogenousGrowthTheory.Cambridge,MA:MITPress,1998.Arrow,K.andKurz,M.PublicInvestment,theRateofReturnandOptimalFiscalPolicy.JohnsHopkinsUniversityPress,1970.Barro,R.GovernmentSpendinginaSimpleModelofEndogenousGrowth.JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1990,98,pp.S103-S125.Caballero,R.J.andJaffe,A.B.HowHighAretheGiantsShoulders:AnEmpiricalAssessmentofKnowledgeSpilloversandCreativeDe2structioninaModelofEconomicGrowth.NBERMacroeconomicAnnals,1993,pp.15-74.Chen,B.andLee,S.CongestiblePublicGoodsandLocalIndeterminacy:ATwoSectorEndogenousGrowthModel.JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,2007,31,pp.2486-2518.Glomm,G.andRavikumar,B.PublicGovernmentExpendituresandLong-runGrowth.JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,1997,21,pp.183