IMS--The-global-use-of-Medicines-Outlook-Through-2

TheGlobalUseofMedicines:OutlookThrough2016July2012ReportbytheIMSInstituteforHealthcareInformaticsTheGlobalUseofMedicines:OutlookThrough2016ReportbytheIMSInstituteforHealthcareInformaticsKey2012-2016NumbersKey2016NumbersDevelopedCountrySpendingPerPerson$609PharmergingCountrySpendingPerPerson$91GlobalSpendingGrowthCAGR3-6%U.S.SpendingGrowthCAGR1-4%PharmergingSpendingGrowthCAGR12-15%“PatentDividend”$106BnSpendingonBrands$615-645BnNewMolecularEntityLaunches160-185SpendingonGenerics$400-430BnSpending~$1.2TrillionIMSInstituteforHealthcareInformatics11WaterviewBoulevardParsippany,[e-mail]©2012IMSHealthIncorporatedanditsaffiliates.Allreproductionrights,quotations,broadcasting,publicationsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanical,includingphotocopy,recording,oranyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem,withoutexpresswrittenconsentofIMSHealthandtheIMSInstituteforHealthcareInformatics.FINDOUTMOREIfyouwanttoreceivemorereportsfromtheIMSInstitute,orbeonourmailinglist,pleaseclickhere.1TheGlobalUseofMedicines:OutlookThrough2016ReportbytheIMSInstituteforHealthcareInformaticsContentsIntroduction..........................................................2ExecutiveSummary..................................................3GlobalSpendingonMedicines..................................4TransformationsinDiseaseTreatment.......................11GlobalSpendingGrowth.........................................17NotesonSources.................................................29Appendices..........................................................30AbouttheIMSInstitute........................................33Thefuturelevelofglobalspendingonmedicinesunderscoresthesimilarchallengesofaccessandaffordabilitywhichfacethosewhoconsumeandpayforhealthcarearoundtheworld.Inthedevelopedmarkets,includingtheUnitedStatesandEurope,thecurrenteconomicdownturnwillamplifymanyofthelong-termconcernsaboutagingpopulationsafflictedwithexpensivechronicdiseasesandthedesirebyallhealthcarestakeholderstocontrolcosts.Acrosscountries,similarpoliciesarealreadybeingimplementedtoreininspendingonexpensivetherapies,increasetheuseofgenerics,addresspricingdirectlythroughpricecutsorindirectlyviadiscountsorrebates,anddevelopamarketforbiosimilarsasalower-costalternativetooriginalbiologics.Alternatively,thefastgrowingpharmergingmarketswillbedrivenpredominantlybyeconomicgainsandrisingincomes.Thisriseinincomes,particularlyforthelowestearners,coupledwithgovernmentcommitmentstosupportexpandedaccesstobasichealthcareservices,willmakemedicinesmorebroadlyavailableandaffordabletomillionsofpeople.Further,newtherapiesforarangeofdiseasesaffectingbothdevelopedanddevelopingworldpopulationsarecurrently,orwillsoonbecome,availabletransformingpatientcare.Despitethisprogress,however,significantgapsremaininthedrugarsenal.Inthisreportwequantifythesefactorsandexaminethespendingandusageofmedicinesgloballythrough2016.Weintendthisreporttoprovideafoundationformeaningfuldiscussionaboutthevalue,costandroleofmedicinesinhealthcareoverthenextfiveyears.Ourreportwasdevelopedasapublicservicewithoutindustryorgovernmentfunding.MichaelKleinrockDirector,ResearchDevelopmentIMSInstituteforHealthcareInformaticsIntroduction2TheGlobalUseofMedicines:OutlookThrough2016ReportbytheIMSInstituteforHealthcareInformaticsExecutivesummaryGLOBALSPENDINGONMEDICINESAnnualglobalspendingonmedicineswillreachnearly$1.2trillionby2016,asthepharmergingmarkets,biologicsandgenericscontributemoretospending.Inthedevelopedmarkets,includingtheUnitedStates,EuropeandJapan,spendingwilldeclineto57%oftheglobaltotalduetoexpiringpatentsforanumberofsignificantbrand-namedrugs,slowerincreasesinspendingonbrandedproducts,andincreasedcostcontainmentmeasuresbypayers.Alternatively,pharmergingmarketswillreach30%ofglobalspendingby2016,aspopulationandeconomicgrowthcontributetodramaticallyhigheruseofmedicinesinthesemarkets.Overall,thetop20therapyareaswillaccountfor42%ofglobalspending,ledbycancer,diabetesandasthma/COPD.Anacceleratedshifttotheuseofgenericmedicinesisexpected,bothfromanunprecedentedlevelofpatentexpiriesintheU.S.,andfromvolume-drivengrowthinthelargelygeneric-usingpharmergingmarkets.Atthesametime,lower-costversionsofexpensivebiologicmedicines,orbiosimilars,willcontinuetobelaunched,thoughslowly,andwillaccountforonly$4-6Bn,or2%,ofthe$200-210Bninspendingonbiologicsby2016.By2016,netspendingonmedicines,afteroff-invoicediscountsandrebates,willsurpass$1trillionglobally.Off-invoicetransactionswillcontinuetorise,particularlyforgenerics,representinginaggregateanestimated$180-190Bnin2016.TRANSFORMATIONSINDISEASETREATMENTSNewmedicineswilltransformpatientcareinalargenumberofdiseasesincludingcancer,heartdiseaseandcentralnervoussystemdisorders.Fewmedicinesareavailableuniformlytoallpatientsgloballyfollowinglaunch,andthetimelaginsomecountriesforgainingaccesstothesemedicinescanbesignificant.Provenmedicines,whichwereonlypreviouslyavailableinafewcountries,willbecomemorewidel