青岛啤酒公司价值评估案例分析

华中科技大学硕士学位论文青岛啤酒公司价值评估案例分析姓名：张建军申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：龚朴20060426ICAPMWACCDCFIIAbstractThecompanyvaluationisanintegratedcapitalvaluationandalsoajudgeandestimationprocess,whichmainobeysorservesforthecompanyoftransferingorexchangingpropertyright.Inthehigh-techrapiddevelopmentcircumstancethatcoredbythefinancialeconomy,globaleconomyandinformationtechnology,theacquisitionactivitiesraisedgraduallybetweentheglobalcompanies.Soitisveryimportanttomakethepricefortheacquisitiontargetcompany,andtheapplicationofthecompanyvaluationwillbeextendedgreatly.Accordingtorelevantvaluationtheoriesofmoderncompany,Thethreemaincompanyvaluationmodels(discountcashflowmodelPEmodelandoptionmodel)wereanalyzed,theiradvantageanddisadvantagewerecompared,andbasedonthecharacteristicsoftruefinancedatas,outstandingachievement,steadycashflow,moderatecompetitionenvironment,easyventuremensurationandeasyfinancevaluationofbeerlistingcompanys,TsingtaoBreweryCompany,alistingcompanywasselectedforDCFmodelvaluation.Byintroducingthedevelopmenthistory,analysingpastachievementsandvalue-drivingbusinessofTsingtaoBreweryCompany,Imadeidentificationofvalue-drivingelementsofthecompany,construedthestrategicdesign,andtransformedthedesigntofinancialforcast,thenIusedCAPMmodeltoworkoutequitycapitalcostandWACCforestimatingthecompany’svalue.Furthermore,Imadesensitivityanalysisoftheseveralmainfactorsthatinfluencethecompany’svalue,suchasWACC,incomeincreaserateyieldratereinvestmentproportionandsooninordertofindthekeyfactor,soastohelpthemanagerstoeffectivelymangevaluedriversandimprovethecompany’svalueKeywords:DCFmodelValuationValuebusiness111.112319901120212119911443.372003127338329.1341-1199958577397.71200017814784817.3320012331899489.942002213172105516.302003395194117316.542004855312744.162004200453019951999200314.2810.745.560.370.250.13951.2(IrvingFisher)36(F,modiglianiandH.Mille)7205070(BlackandScholes)8809,,---(DCF)1011DCF1213141.314—DCFDCF2DCFDCF522.115ShannoPPart“16‘’FutureBenefit‘’……”,(),()11∞==+∑ieieiCFTEVk(2-1)cVtCFTE,eK,()11∞==+∑ciiiCFTEVWACC(2-2)6cVtCFTE,WACC,,,,/(P/E)/(P/BV)/(P/S),,///(Tobin),,,,“”,()(P/E),,,,,,(/),,1719988(P/E),PEPE,PE/(P/BV)/(P/S)187———(DiscountCashFlowmodel--DCF)(RelativeComparablesMultiples—RCM),1974Merton,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,19HarvardBusinessReviewMcKinseyQuarterlyBusinessWeekBrealey,RichardAMyersStewartC.PrinciplesOfCorporateFinanceAmramMarthaKulatilakaNalinRealOptions20IT2.28—“”“”92000CAPMDCFDCF103DCF3.11)=(3-1)()T−×=111()×−×=T1=(3-2)=(3-3)1-2)3.2WACC()1=×−×+×sbcBSWACCKTKVV(3-4)bK—12cT—B—S—V—BSsK—CAPM()=+×−βfmfRRRR(3-5)R—fR—mR—β—(mR—fR)—12βββ13β33.35101231234143.4100continuingvalueVC1−=−cgNOPLATROICIVWACCg(3-6)cV—NOPLAT—ROICI—g—gROEPlowBackRatioPBR123415130%231644.1190310,,19941995:,“,”,1999,,,,,,,,,,,“”199440371/48“1993715H827A200121A200210A——BA——B1.82“”2004168.732005500200880017”11°11°11°12°12°10°10°8°4.24-12000-2004200020012002200320046,995,231,0258,243,838,4128,938,615,6009,002,202,6629,878,004,8212,235,378,6342,964,914,5862,977,353,6023,513,902,5213,586,682,183:200020044-22000-2004200020012002200320043,766,259,1305,276,724,5466,936,734,1267,507,959,0588,620,687,76695,201,759102,887,744230,657,385253,871,661279,724,219:20002004:184-31999200020012002200320041,897,403,7892,585,117,4192,566,992,1613,054,862,4093,284,748,1703,779,347,1342,020,088,9622,768,291,2093,730,738,8684,465,802,4212,888,848,1893,074,367,9841,416,321,2901,979,367,6802,496,232,7702,669,481,3471,302,612,9901,355,191,925603,767,672788,923,5291,234,506,0981,796,321,0741,586,235,1991,719,176,0591,293,636,1171,796,193,8901,332,486,0631,258,541,3351,698,512,9712,060,171,0752,818,392,0004,076,438,0145,158,606,5375,204,391,2425,124,010,0345,463,409,892217,691,289336,200,404211,824,589213,423,273214,991,77267,479,186356,683,762532,370,160692,550,026723,441,189745,028,094783,860,5074,686,403,1686,741,202,4687,395,467,2157,399,797,0397,782,542,8718,374,920,6600000004,686,403,1686,741,202,4687,395,467,2157,399,797,0397,782,542,8718,374,920,660=-=-=+++=+.4-419992000200120022003200489,387,47093,078,80971,319,534325,171,918409,522,738504,865,70815%13,408,12113,961,82110,697,93048,775,78861,428,41175,729,85675,979,35079,116,98860,621,604276,396,130348,094,327429,135,85215%4344(3-1)194-519992000200120022003200475,979,35079,116,98860,621,604276,396,130348,094,327429,135,8524,686,403,1686,741,202,4687,395,467,2157,399,797,0397,782,542,8718,374,920,6601.62%1.17%0.82%3.74%4.47%5.12%1999200420011443-24-61999200020012002200320042,445,436,4973,766,259,1305,276,724,5466,936,734,1267,507,959,0588,620,687,76689,387,47093,078,80971,319,534325,171,918409,522,738504,865,7080.0370.0250.0140.0470.0550.059199920042001334-71999200020012002200320042,445,436,4973,766,259,1305,276,724,5466,936,734,1267,507,959,0588,620,687,7664,686,403,1686,741,202,4687,395,467,2157,399,797,0397,782,542,8718,374,920,6600.520.560.710.940.961.0319990.52,2002200120200113-819992000200120022003200475,979,35079,116,98860,621,604276,396,130348,094,327429,135,852488,734,214628,519,521630,397,964420,531,112402,012,885660,939,298