挣值项目管理中的风险控制研究

南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文挣值项目管理中的风险控制研究姓名：夏瑞峰申请学位级别：硕士专业：技术经济及管理指导教师：宁宣熙20060101i1967C/SCSCPERTiiAbstractTheEarnedValuemethodofmodernprojectmanagementbodyofknowledgeisoriginatedfromthe“Cost/ScheduleControlSystemCriteria”,whichwasputforwardbytheDepartmentofDefense(DOD)ofUSAin1967.Thecostandscheduleofprojectareintegratedbythismethod.Comparedwiththetraditionalmethodofprojectmanagement,EarnedValuemethodisapracticalway,butitalsohasacertainlimition.Thebasicprincipleofearnedvalueisintroducedinthispaperandthecontentsofprojectriskmanagementarealsoincluded.BasedonanalyzingofmeritsandshortcomingsaboutEarnedValueandriskmanagement,itislikelytointegratethem.ThepaperhasahottalkaboutthemethodofcalculatingtheEarnedValueindexeswhenthescheduleofactivityisfixed.TheanswersofEarnedValueindexestooneprojectaregiveninthispaper.Afteranalysisthecharacteristicsofanswers,thepaperdiscusstheriskcontrolinEarnedValueprojectmanagement.TheboundofSPIandCPItooneprojectarecalculated,whichareveryimportantinprojectcontrol,suchascostcontrol,schedulecontrolandqualitycontrol.Lastly,somemeasuresaboutintegrateEarnedValueandriskmanagementareputforward,whichisbasedontheprocessofEarnedValueprojectmanagement.keywords:ProjectManagementEarnedValueProjectPerformanceRiskIntegrate,()v1.1..................................31.2..................................................................82.1......................................................................................92.2..............................................................................92.3EVMS............................................................102.4........................................................................132.5............................................................................142.6SVCV....................................................................................162.7CPISPI...........................................................................162.8........................................................................182.9........................................................................................193.1................................................................................233.2........................................................................................244.1β............................................................................284.2............................334.3................................................................................345.1....................................................................................395.2....................................................................................395.3BCWPACWP...................................415.4SPI........................................................425.5CPI.......................................................425.6........................................435.7....................................................................455.8....................................................................455.9SPI........................................475.10CPI.......................................475.11....................................................................495.12SPI,CPI...........................................................................50vi1.1SPICPM.........................................51.2SPICPICPM...............................51.3.......................................................................62.1.........................................................................153.1.................................................................................243.2.................................................................................254.1.............................344.2.............................................................354.3.....................................................................354.4.....................................364.5.........................................................385.1.................395.2.....................................................455.3.....................................................46viiACWPBACBCWPBCWSCPICVRAMSPISVWBS11.1[1]1967Cost/ScheduleControlSystemCriteria[2]199619987EarnedValueManagementSystemANSI/EIAEIA-748200082%[3]21.21.2.1[4][5][6][7]1.2.21Christensen&Ferens1995[8]2002[7]AbbaChristen3Kim2003[9]21.1UAP1.1EunHongKim,WilliamG.WellsJr.,MichaelR.Duffey.AmodelforeffectiveimplementationofEarnedValueManagementmethodology2003[10]//2004[11]2004[12]1.1.1UP1.2U1.3P1.4P2.2.1AU2.2AP2.3P2.4A3.3.1UP3.2AP3.3A3.4AP4.4.1P4.2AP42Christensen1992[13]CPISPICPISPI20%CPI0.1155DAES95%CPI20%0.2[14]3Fleming&Quentin[15][16]Brown1985[17]SPISPICPI1.11.2Brandon&Daniel(1998)[18]TotalQualityManagementRodneyhowes2000[19]CVCPISV51.1SPICPMSPICPMSPI1SPISPI1SPI1SPISPI1SPI12Brown,JohnW.EvaluationofProjectUsingCriticalPathAnalysisandEarnedValueinCombination1.2SPICPICPMSPICPICPMSPI1CPI1SPI1CPI1SPI1CPI1SPI1CPI1SPI1CPI1SPI1CPI1SPI1CPI1SPISPI1CPI1Brown,JohnW.Evaluat