The-Role-of-Energy-Storage-in-the-Modern-Low-Carbo

1TheRoleofEnergyStorageintheModernLow-CarbonGridPaulDenholmNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryStrategicEnergyAnalysisandApplicationsCenterJune12,20082Today’sDiscussion:TheRoleofStorageinthePast,Present&FutureGridFractionofEnergyfromWindandSolar0%1%20%100%StudiedstoragevaluablebutnotnecessaryPresentPastNearFuture?LessstudiedstorageincreasinglyvaluableandatsomepointnecessaryLowCarbonFutureTopicstoDiscuss:•Gridapplicationsofstorage&valuation•Potentialchangesinstoragevaluationcreatedbyrenewableenergy•Storagetechnologies30.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0024487296120144168Hour&DayLoad(FractionofAnnualPeak)05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,000Load(MW)WinterSpringMinimumSummerMaximum3WeeksinColorado(Xcel)2003TheChallengeChallengeistomeetthisdemand,increasinglywithtechnologiesthatdon’tbehavethewaywewouldlikethemtobehave4GridofthePastFractionofEnergyfromWindandSolar0%1%20%100%Challengesofmeetingvariationsindemandprovidedearlymotivationsforstorage(1980)-Limitedflexibilitysteamplants(noCTs)-Projectednuclearbuilds(100sofGW)-FuelsAct(nogas)PresentPastNearFuture?5EarlyStorageBuildOutConventionalPumpedHydro:~20GWCAES:1Plant(110MW)Others(100MWtotal):Afewbatteries,SMES,mostlyforlocalpowerqualityissues6RecentHistory(1980s-2000)•LimitedActivity–PHSsitesmostlygone–Cheapnaturalgas–Limitednuclearbuildout–Exotictechnologiesremaincostly•Cheaperand/oreasiertomeetvariationinloadandcapacityrequirementswithconventionalgenerationresources01234561970197519801985199019952000ElectricSectorNaturalGasPrice($/tCF)FuelUseAct7GridofthePresentFractionofEnergyfromWindandSolar0%1%20%100%01234567819982000200220042006ElectricSectorNaturalGasPrice($/tCF)RenewedInterestinStorage-Emergenceofenergyandancillaryservicemarkets-HighnaturalgaspricesPresent8PotentialValuesofEnergyStorage•“Capturable”inexistingmarkets–EnergyArbitrage–Capacity–Frequencyregulation–Spinningandnon-spinningreserve•Less-Capturable/RegulatedServices–Blackstart–T&Ddeferral–Alloftheaboveinregulatedserviceterritories90102030405060708006121824HourWholesalePrice($/MWh)HoldSellBuy+DoubleSpinSpinValuationofEnergyStorage8MWhPurchased+6HoursofDoubleSpin=53.36MWhSold=$251.8DailyNetRevenue(noO&M)=$369.28HoursofSpin=$64Revenueshaveincreased76%bycombiningservices1MW,6MWhDevice,75%efficiency10StorageinToday’sGrid•Canprovideavarietyofservices•Propervaluationmustconsidermultipleservices(energy+capacity)•Stilleconomic,technical,regulatory&institutionalimpedimentstolargerdeployment•Aswithanypotentialsolutionitneedstomeetinvestmentcriteriaandbeatthecompetition•Storageisusefulbutnotarequiredcomponentofthegrid11GridoftheNearFutureFractionofEnergyfromWindandSolar0%1%20%100%•Growthinrenewables-dominatedbywind•Perceivedneed/opportunitiesfor“firming”•ConcernsaboutadequateT&DNearFuture?12WillOpportunitiesforStorageIncreasewithREDeployment?•Willtherebeincreasedopportunitiesforstorage?–Increasedvariationinprice–Increasedneedforcapacity&ancillaryservices–GreaterneedforT&D13CharacteristicsofWind•Variableanduncertainoutput•Limiteddispatchability(cancurtailwhenneeded)•Significantramprates(butgenerallyoverhoursnotminutes)•Windoutputisnotusuallycoincidentwithpeakload–Windisanenergyresource,notacapacityresource–Somewhatanti-correlatedwithload14PossibleREImpactsthatIncreaseOpportunitiesforStorage•Increasedneedforancillaryservicesduetorampingandvariability•Increasedvariationinpricesduetoanti-correlationwithload•IncreasedT&Drequirementsduetolowcapacityfactors•Howtoevaluate???15UtilityWindIntegrationStudies•Simulatesystemwithandwithoutwind–Useexpensivecommercialsoftwarethatincludesexistinggenerationmix,transmissionsystem–Getlotsofwindsimulationsfromacommercialvendor–Spendseveral100kstoseveralM$•Evaluatecostsofforecasterrors,additionalreservesetc.PonnequinPeetzPonnequinPeetz16LoadImpactsGreaterRampRatesLimitedCapacityReducedFuelUseGEStudyofERCOT17ForecastErrorForecasterrorresultsinover-orunder-commitment&increasedcosts18ExampleResults(ArizonaPublicService)19ComparisonofCost-BasedU.S.OperationalImpactStudies*3-yearaverage;totalisnon-marketcost**highestintegrationcostof3years;30.7%capacitypenetrationcorrespondingto25%energypenetration;24.7%capacitypenetrationat20%energypenetration***found$4.37/MWhreductioninUCcostwhenwindforecastingisusedinUCdecisionDateStudyWindCapacityPenetra-tion(%)Regula-tionCost($/MWh)LoadFollowingCost($/MWh)UnitCommit-mentCost($/MWh)GasSupplyCost($/MWh)TotOper.CostImpact($/MWh)May‘03Xcel-UWIG3.500.411.44na1.85Sep‘04Xcel-MNDOC150.23na4.37na4.60June‘06CARPS40.45*tracenana0.45Feb‘07GE/Pier/CAIAP200-0.69tracena***na0-0.69***June‘03WeEnergies41.120.090.69na1.90June‘03WeEnergies291.020.151.75na2.922005PacifiCorp2001.63.0na4.60April‘06Xcel-PSCo100.20na2.261.263.72April‘06Xcel-PSCo150.20na3.321.454.97Dec‘06MN20%31**4.41**Jul‘07APS14.80.372.651.06na4.0820LoadImpacts&PriceVolatility21Price/LoadRelationship0501001502002500100002000030000400005000060000Load(MW)WholesalePrice($/MWh)051015202530351800020000220002400026000Load(MW)WholesalePrice($/MWh)Morewindresultsinloweroff-peakprices,andagrea