Labour-Economics劳动经济学(英文版)(Dr-Hamish-Low)

LabourEconomicsDrHamishLowLecture1Course•Laboursupply•WageDetermination•SearchTheoryandUnemploymentInsuranceOutlineToday•Dataonlaboursupply(life-cyclecontext)–participationanddurationsofunemploymentformen–participationoverthelife-cycleforwomen–dataonwages,durationsParticipationrateAgeHighschoolorlessCollegedropoutormore2030405060.6.7.8.91Participationratesoverthelifecycle,.HighschoolorlessSomecollege(Male)Employment(Male)Ageofentryintheun.stateLoweducation,PSID87-97Higheducation,PSID87-9730405060700246810DurationofunemploymentinquartersAgeHighschoolorlessSomecollegeHighschoolorlessSomecollege3040506011.251.51.7522.25AgeLog[wage]Datasummary(Men)•participationhighandfairlyconstantuntilaroundage50•durationofunemploymentincreasingwithage•lowereducated:higherproportionunemployedanddurationofspellslonger•Wagesrisingoverthelifetime(particularlyforhigheducated)•Issues:–workwhenyoungwhenwagesarelow?–ageaffectslikelihoodofacceptingajob?2530354045505560600700800900100011001200130014001500cohort1cohort2cohort3AveragehoursworkedEmployment(Female)OprahWinfreycohortHillaryClintoncohortElizabethDolecohortAge25303540455055600.450.50.550.60.650.70.750.80.850.9cohort1cohort2cohort3EmploymentRateOprahWinfreycohortHillaryClintoncohortElizabethDolecohortProportionParticipatingAge25303540455055605.566.577.58ageMedianwageperhourWagesOprahWinfreycohortHillaryClintoncohortElizabethDolecohort75808590955.566.577.58yearMedianwageperhour,byyearMedianwageperhourOprahWinfreycohortHillaryClintoncohortElizabethDolecohort262830323436385.566.577.588.599.5agenofullfullHillaryClintonFullTimeOprahWinfreyFullTimeHillaryClintoncohortNotFullTimeOprahWinfreyNotFullTimeReturnstoexperienceMedianwageperhourRateofExitandDurationofExitOprahWinfreycohortHillaryClintoncohort253035404550556000.511.522.533.5cohort1cohort2cohort3AVERAGENUMBEROFCHILDRENINFAMILYUNITYOUNGERTHAN17DemographicsHillaryClintoncohortElizabethDolecohortOprahWinfreycohortOprahWinfreycohortHillaryClintoncohortElizabethDolecohortDatasummary(Women)•Participationincreasedamongyoungercohorts•Riseinparticipationamongmothers•Wagesrisenmoreforyoungercohorts?•Fewerchildren,lessexitsfromlabourforceanddurationsofexitshorterConclusions•Needamodelwithlife-cycleaspects–agematters!–whatishappeningtoconsumption?welfare?•Needtoknowwhatdetermineswages.–Whynotwaituntilwageincreases?–Interactionbetweenlaboursupplyandwages?–Howmuchdoesexperiencematterforwages?•Havetoseparateoutageeffectsfromcohorteffects.•Separatemodellingofmenandwomen?(DrHorrell’scourse–howtomodelhouseholds)LabourEconomicsDrHamishLowLecture2Outline:LabourSupply(cont)•Explaininghoursofwork/participation•Life-cyclemodeloflaboursupply•Uncertainty•HoursofworkmayaffectwagerateExplainingHoursofworkIncreaseinwagerate•Substitutioneffect(relativepricehaschanged–leisureismoreexpensive)•Incomeeffect(incomehasincreased)HlyBAA’zHmmpwzwupwzwmpwzc,,,,,,SlutskyEquation:HicksianSubstitutionEffect-ve??+ve(normalgood)NeedestimatesofSEandIEspecifically,estimatesofincomeelasticityoflaboursupplyandthecompensatedwageelasticity.)(lnlnln3210kidsnoincomeotherwhTwoproblems:1.whatdoesitmeantosay“awageincrease”2.hoursofworkmayaffectthewagerateWhatdatatouse?Variationinwagesacrossindividuals?Variationovertimeforthesameindividual?Whatdoesitmeantosay“awageincrease”•Staticmodel:opportunitysethasexpanded.•Life-cyclecontext:–wagehasincreasedalongexpectedtrajectory–wageishigherthanexpected3040506011.251.51.7522.25AgeLog[wage]?HoursofworkHighIES•Choiceofwhentoworkinlife-cyclereflectswillingnessandabilitytosubstitutehoursofworkintertemporally•Thereisnoincomeeffectassociatedwithamovementalongthewagecurve?HoursofworkLowIES3040506011.251.51.7522.25AgeLog[wage]HoursofworkImplicationsforconsumptionAreconsumptionandhoursofworksubstitutesorcomplements?Substitutes:consumptionislowwhenhoursofworkarehigh(noleisuretimetoenjoyearnings?)Complements:consumptionishighwhenhoursofworkarehigh(havetospendmoretomakethemostoffewhoursofleisure!)Log[Consumption](Subst)Log[Consumption](Compl)3040506011.251.51.7522.25AgeLog[wage]Actualhoursofwork•Hardtoexplainthedownturninhoursafterage50•Whatdoesthisimplyforhoursandconsumptionbeingsubstitutes?ActualLog[consumption]Uncertainty•unexpectedchangestowages:maybepermanentortransitory–permanent:largewealtheffect,smallopportunityforintertemporalsubstitution–transitory:smallwealtheffect,largeopportunityforintertemporalsubstitution•Bush’staxcuts:temporaryorpermanent?3040506011.251.51.7522.25AgeLog[wage]IncreaseinhoursassociatedwithtemporarycutintaxrateDecreaseinhoursassociatedwithpermanenttaxcutUncertaintymeansindividualswanttodeferutility(precautionaryreasons)TttttzczcuEtt10,,max111,1,tttttttczcuErczcuFirst-orderconditions:1111,1,tttttttttwwzzcuErzzcuPrecautionaryMotivetttczcu,tc][cE][cEMUtcccMUtESo,greateruncertaintyincreasesexpectedmarginalutility.Thisinducesashiftofresourcestothefuture(whenexpectedmarginalutilityishigh)30405060AgehoursofworkHwcttln,ln5001000150020001