德意志银行中国化学行业深度研究报告

GlobalChemicals24March2010ChinaChemicalsTourThegrowthenginecontinuestodeliverTimJonesResearchAnalyst(+44)[e-mail],CFAResearchAnalyst(+1)[e-mail],CFAResearchAnalyst(+44)[e-mail]-FerteResearchAnalyst(+44)[e-mail]/LondonAllpricesarethosecurrentattheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicated.PricesaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.DataissourcedfromDeutscheBankandsubjectcompanies.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MICA(P)106/05/2009FITTResearchFundamental,Industry,Thematic,ThoughtLeadingDeutscheBank'sProductCommitteedeemsthisreportF.I.T.Tforinvestors.Werecentlyvisited16European,USandChinesechemicalcompaniesinChina.Short-termtradingisstrongandconfidenceinthestimulusprogrammeandmanagementoftheeconomyremainhigh.Statesupportforpetrochemicalsisthelong-termrisk,butdoingbusinessinChinaiseasier.Companiesbestpositionedforgrowthhaveagrowingconsumerfocusand/ororientationincreasinglyinland.ToppicksforChinaareLinde,BASF&Bayer(Europe),Celanese&DuPont(US).Fundamental:In-depthreviewofprospectsforWesterncompaniesinChinaIndustry:GrowingconfidenceoverdoingbusinessinChinaThematic:StimuluseffortsshiftinlandandincreasinglyconsumerfocusedThoughtleading:ManyEuropean(andUS)nameswellpositionedinChinaCompanyGlobalMarketsResearchGlobalChemicals24March2010ChinaChemicalsTourThegrowthenginecontinuestodeliverTimJonesResearchAnalyst(+44)[e-mail],CFAResearchAnalyst(+1)[e-mail],CFAResearchAnalyst(+44)[e-mail]-FerteResearchAnalyst(+44)[e-mail],Industry,Thematic,ThoughtLeadingDeutscheBank'sProductCommitteedeemsthisreportF.I.T.Tforinvestors.Werecentlyvisited16European,USandChinesechemicalcompaniesinChina.Short-termtradingisstrongandconfidenceinthestimulusprogrammeandmanagementoftheeconomyremainhigh.Statesupportforpetrochemicalsisthelong-termrisk,butdoingbusinessinChinaiseasier.Companiesbestpositionedforgrowthhaveagrowingconsumerfocusand/ororientationincreasinglyinland.ToppicksforChinaareLinde,BASF&Bayer(Europe),Celanese&DuPont(US).DeutscheBankAG/LondonAllpricesarethosecurrentattheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicated.PricesaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.DataissourcedfromDeutscheBankandsubjectcompanies.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MICA(P)106/05/2009FITTResearchCompaniesfeaturedAirLiquide(AIRP.PA),EUR88.08Hold2009A2010E2011EDBEPS(EUR)4.705.395.99P/E(x)14.816.314.7EV/EBITDA(x)7.78.57.7AkzoNobel(AKZO.AS),EUR41.45Hold2009A2010E2011EDBEPS(EUR)2.363.313.85P/E(x)15.212.510.8EV/EBITA(x)13.010.08.4BASF(BASF.DE),EUR44.94Buy2009A2010E2011EDBEPS(EUR)3.013.804.31P/E(x)10.511.810.4EV/EBITA(x)12.49.28.0BayerAG(BAYGn.DE),EUR50.10Buy2009A2010E2011EDBEPS(EUR)3.644.454.77P/E(x)11.911.310.5EV/EBITA(x)17.19.88.9DSMNV(DSMN.AS),EUR32.19Hold2009A2010E2011EDBEPS(EUR)1.442.473.09P/E(x)17.313.010.4EV/EBITA(x)8.89.87.9Linde(LING.DE),EUR88.68Buy2009A2010E2011EDBEPS(EUR)4.556.387.62P/E(x)14.313.911.6EV/EBITDA(x)7.27.56.6Syngenta(SYNN.VX),CHF296.50Buy2009A2010E2011EDBEPS(USD)16.6119.7522.53P/E(x)13.814.212.5EV/EBITA(x)12.711.69.9Umicore(UMI.BR),EUR24.62Sell2009A2010E2011EDBEPS(EUR)0.731.271.64P/E(x)24.519.515.0EV/EBITA(x)13.213.410.5AirProducts&Chemicals(APD.N),USD75.54Hold2009A2010E2011EEPS(USD)4.064.855.40P/E(x)14.915.614.0EV/EBITDA(x)7.57.97.4CelaneseCorp(CE.N),USD32.01Buy2009A2010E2011EEPS(USD)1.702.903.40P/E(x)12.711.09.4EV/EBITDA(x)5.26.35.3DuPont(DD.N),USD38.31Buy2009A2010E2011EEPS(USD)2.042.302.65P/E(x)13.916.714.5EV/EBITDA(x)7.18.57.7Praxair(PX.N),USD82.67Buy2009A2010E2011EEPS(USD)3.994.555.10P/E(x)18.318.216.2EV/EBITDA(x)10.110.19.2SinofertHoldingsLtd(0297.HK),HKD4.54Buy2008A2009E2010EP/E(x)17.6–24.0EV/EBITDA(x)13.1–10.5Price/book(x)1.72.11.9Fundamental:In-depthreviewofprospectsforWesterncompaniesinChinaFollowingourrecentChinaChemicalsTourwehaveprovidedanin-depthassessmentoftheprospectsofthechemicalandindustrialgasindustryintheregion,withafocusontheexposuresofvariousWesternchemicalcompaniesunderourcoveragetoidentifyshort-andlong-termgrowthprospects.Inconclusion,mostcompaniesarecurrentlyexperiencingrecordlevelsofdemandandarealsodisplayingcontinuedconfidenceoverthelong-termgrowthprospectsfortheregio