德意志银行报告-中国医疗产业研究

DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaChinaHealthCareIndustryChinaHealthcareDate12December2011IndustryUpdate2012Outlook:AYearofStabilizationWeanticipatesectortop-linegrowthtocontinuetodeceleratemodestlyin1H12,withreasonableprobabilitythatitwillstabilizeandimprovein2H12.Wealsoexpectmarginstostabilizein2H12.Onvaluation,wedonotexpectsector-widemultipleexpansion,butselectivestockoutperformancelookshighlylikely.Wecontinuetofavormedicaldevicenamesoverpharmaceuticalcompanies,andreiterateourBuyratingonMindrayMedical(MR.N),WuXiPharmaTech(WX.N)andSihuanPharmaceutical(460.HK).2012outlook:ayearofstabilizationJackHu,Ph.DResearchAnalyst(+852)[e-mail]sociate(+852)[e-mail]________________________________________________________________________________________________________________DeutscheBankAG/HongKongAllpricesarethosecurrentattheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicated.PricesaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.DataissourcedfromDeutscheBankandsubjectcompanies.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MICA(P)146/04/2011.DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaChinaHealthCareIndustryChinaHealthcareDate12December2011IndustryUpdate2012Outlook:AYearofStabilization2012outlook:ayearofstabilization________________________________________________________________________________________________________________DeutscheBankAG/HongKongAllpricesarethosecurrentattheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicated.PricesaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.DataissourcedfromDeutscheBankandsubjectcompanies.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MICA(P)146/04/2011.JackHu,Ph.DResearchAnalyst(+852)[e-mail]sociate(+852)[e-mail]anPharmaceutical(0460.HK),HKD2.80Buy2010A2011E2012EP/E(x)38.613.610.0EV/EBITDA(x)23.25.53.8Price/book(x)3.01.61.5ShandongWeigao(1066.HK),HKD6.20Buy2010A2011E2012EP/E(x)83.623.920.3EV/EBITDA(x)95.222.217.3Price/book(x)22.85.04.0SinopharmGroup(1099.HK),HKD18.04Hold2010A2011E2012EP/E(x)50.422.819.1EV/EBITDA(x)21.78.47.0Price/book(x)4.62.32.1ShanghaiPharmaceuticals(2607.HK),HKD14.12Buy2010A2011E2012EP/E(x)–15.714.4EV/EBITDA(x)–9.38.6Price/book(x)0.01.31.2ChinaShineway(2877.HK),HKD10.90Hold2010A2011E2012EP/E(x)19.29.48.9EV/EBITDA(x)13.44.34.4Price/book(x)5.02.01.7TheUnitedLaboratories(3933.HK),HKD4.43Hold2010A2011E2012EP/E(x)13.810.09.5EV/EBITDA(x)8.95.25.3Price/book(x)3.91.11.0ChinaMedicalTech(CMED.OQ),USD3.08Buy2011A2012E2013EP/E(x)7.51.51.2EV/EBITDA(x)7.43.22.1Price/book(x)1.10.20.2MindrayMedical(MR.N),USD26.32Buy2010A2011E2012EP/E(x)21.816.614.5EV/EBITDA(x)15.810.98.0Price/book(x)3.12.72.3WuXiPharmaTech(WX.N),USD11.10Buy2010A2011E2012EP/E(x)15.09.48.1EV/EBITDA(x)8.64.33.0Price/book(x)2.91.61.4Weanticipatesectortop-linegrowthtocontinuetodeceleratemodestlyin1H12,withreasonableprobabilitythatitwillstabilizeandimprovein2H12.Wealsoexpectmarginstostabilizein2H12.Onvaluation,wedonotexpectsector-widemultipleexpansion,butselectivestockoutperformancelookshighlylikely.Wecontinuetofavormedicaldevicenamesoverpharmaceuticalcompanies,andreiterateourBuyratingonMindrayMedical(MR.N),WuXiPharmaTech(WX.N)andSihuanPharmaceutical(460.HK).ProprietaryBuy-sidesurveyindicatescautiousoutlookfor2012WeconductedaproprietaryBuy-sidesurveyofthe2012sectoroutlook.Themajorityoftheparticipatinginvestors1)expectmacropolicytoeaseandmodestRRR(reserverequirementratio)ratecuts;2)viewasector-widere-ratingin2012forhealthcareasunlikely;3)expectcontinuouspolicypressure,especiallypricingpressureonpharmaceuticalsandhigh-endmedicalconsumables;and4)believepolicypressurehasnotbeenfullyreflectedinstockvaluation.LookforsignsofstabilizationWebelievesignsofstabilizationonsectorandvisibilityoncompanyfundamentalswillbethemostsought-afterdriversforstockoutperformancein2012;whileitremainstooearlytolookforinflectionpoints.Weareexcitedthat1)onfundamentals,improvingsignsincludingpotentialinterestratecuts,decelerationofinflation,decreasingpricesforTCMrawmaterial,anddecelerationofRMBappreciation,maysoothemarginpressuresonmultiplefronts;2)onvaluation,consensusestimatesfor2012havecomedownsignificantly;however,weexpecttheStreettofurtherreduceestimatespost-4Q11earnings.PolicyopportunitiesanduncertaintiesWeremainbullishoncapitalizingopportunitiesonthreefronts,includingcounty-levelhospital,privateservicesectorandincreasingprivatemedicalinsurance,a