全球PCB市场及技术发展-GlobalPCBMarketandTechnol

Dr.Shiuh-kaoChiangManagingPartnerPrismarkKeynoteSpeechIIDate:Wednesday,Nov9,2011Time:11:30am–12:20pmRoom:R504,5F,TaipeiNangangExhibitionCenterGlobalPCBMarketandTechnologyDevelopmentOutlookGLOBALELECTRONICSINDUSTRYPRODUCTIONKc1011.239bes-global19902000201020201980$247Bn1982Computer23%Communications26%Consumer15%Military19%Industrial/Medical13%Automotive4%4.52.01.51.00.50$Trn2010Asia19%China37%Europe15%Americas23%14.6%29.6%18.7%29.7%4.03.53.02.5Japan6%$1,415Bn2/3oftheindustryisbasedonnetworkedcommunicationsConsumer12%Industrial/Medical14%Automotive10%Military9%7.4%2015$1,877BnConsumer11%Industrial/Medical14%Automotive10%Military7%Computer32%Communications23%Computer34%Communications24%$0WorldGDPGrowth$0.2$0.4$0.6$0.8$1.0$1.2$1.4$1.6$1.8$2.0$TrnAHISTORYANDFORECASTOFTHEELECTRONICSINDUSTRY20002001200220122013201420032004200520062007200820092010201120154.8%2.3%2.9%4.0%4.5%4.7%3.6%4.9%4.6%5.2%5.3%2.8%-0.7%5.1%4.0%4.8%SectorDeclineDotComHangoverGlobalRecessionFinancialCrisisEnergyEfficiencyRenewablesAgingDemographyFuelEfficiencyNetworkedAutoNetworkTV3DTVSmartphonesITSpendingDataCentersTabletsReturntoGrowth5.8%CAAGRConsumer-DrivenEconomicExpansion5.9%CAAGRMilitary/AeroIndustrial/MedicalAutomotiveConsumerCommunicationsComputerN1011.239bes-elecOctober2011ForecastELECTRONICSSYSTEMSMARKETFORECAST($Bn)20102011F2012F20152011/20102012/2011CAAGR2010–2015PC$250$277$300$37710.8%8.3%8.6%Server/DataStorage$95$103$180$1258.4%4.9%5.6%OtherComputer$115$117$120$1331.7%2.6%3%MobilePhones$176$220$235$24325%6.8%6.7%CommunicationsInfrastructure$135$150$159$17611.1%6%5.5%OtherCommunications$22$23$24$264%4%3.5%Consumer$165$170$176$2013%3.5%4%Automotive$140$154$161$19210%4.5%6.5%Industrial$111$120$125$1558.1%4.2%6.9%PVModules$43$39$38$52-9.3%-2.6%3.9%Medical$85$91$96$1087.1%5.5%5%Military/Aerospace$121$124$124$1402.5%0%3%Total(IncludingPVModules)$1,458$1,588$1,666$1,9298.9%4.9%5.8%October2011UpdateUSElectronicsandApplianceStoresSales-30%Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q32005200620072008200920102011Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4-20%-10%0%10%20%30%CONSUMERDRIVENELECTRONICSINDICATORSEUCompositeSalesIndexofElectronicsRetailSalesJapanHouseholdElectric/ElectronicAppliancesChinaLargeRetailSameStoreSalesWeightedAverageKc911.239rd-elecsales-70%InitialeuphoriaofacceleratingrecoveryisgoneBoominginJapanbutDisasterwillhaveitstollChinacoolingoffOverheatingPullBackRecoveryRecession25%-30%-15%-5%5%15%30%∆YoYGROWTH(OEMVS.SUPPLYCHAIN)16%25%28%45%155%44%--52%10%21%6%38%5%4%6%-34%18%18%15%22%28%24%4%24%-31%19%17%28%27%42%60%22%-16%-12%-10%26%23%58%86%51%25%19%13%12%19%28%36%20%-SoftLanding?Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1201120102009-Foundry-Passive--Connector-PCB--Display--SemiconductorEMS/ODM0%0%1%7%11%13%4%15%-18%OEM--OEMQ4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1201120102009Kc911.239rd-chainSTATEOFTHEELECTRONICSINDUSTRYSUPPLYCHAIN(YoYGrowth,Quarterly*)23%46%38%18%23%17%23%33%33%12%2%-22%-60%4%3%11%23%44%18%-5%21%--15%42%*SampleofCompaniesintheSupplyChain-80%-60%-40%-20%-20%-40%-60%-80%20%20%40%80%60%40%60%80%0%0%ELECTRONICSCOMPONENTDEMAND(MonthlySalesChangeofPublicTaiwaneseElectronicsCompanies)InventoryRestockingChinaStimulusFrozenDemandRapidEconomicDeteriorationFoundriesAssemblyTestingTotalPCB/SubstrateCompaniesRigidCCLPCB:MultilayerPCB:HDI/MLPCB:SubstratePCB:RigidCCL20102011201020112008Kc1011.044kk-decline2200820092009COPPERANDGOLDPRICING$0$200$400$600$800$1,000$1,200$2,000$1,800$1,600$1,400$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000$10,000$12,000Gold$/OunceN1011.286skc-gold-copperCopper$/MetricTonQ3Q4200320042005200620072008200920102011Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3MINIMUMWAGEANNUALINCREASERATEINSHANGHAI01995Source:ChineseGovernmentAnnouncements1996199719981999200020022004200620082001200320052007200920102011EN1011.075skc-wages5%15%25%10%20%Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q4Q4Q4Q4Q42007-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%20082009CURRENCYEXCHANGERATES20102011N1011.239kk-exrates1086KRW77.7€0.71¥YenRMBEuro6.42CNY29.2NT$Note:BaselineQ12007Vaues:1US$=0.76Euro=938.8Won=119.34Yen=32.91NT$=7.76CNY0%10%20%30%40%50%Year-on-YearSemiconductorGrowthYear-on-YearWorldRigidPCBGrowth-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720092011201220132014201520102008-3.5%-6.8%1.4%14.2%-20.0%-6.0%6.6%15.3%5.8%11.1%5.6%-14.8%7.4%4.7%6.7%7.0%7.0%27.3%1.4%12.5%9.2%3.7%9.5%12.0%16.0%11.5%PrintedCircuitValueGrowth-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%25%20%$ValueofSemiconductorShipmentsYear-on-YearChangePrintedCircuitValueGrowth4.0%8.0%10.0%29.0%-32.0%1.3%16.8%28.0%6.8%9.0%3.2%-9.0%2.5%6.5%8.2%8.7%9.8%31.8%-2.8%37.0%19.0%-8.0%4.0%-9.0%42.0%32.0%Semi-conductorIndexEndofYearWORLDPRINTEDCIRCUITFORECASTPrintedCircuitValueGrowth201027.3%GLOBALPCBGROWTHRATESBYPRODUCTTYPE(Value)20102011E2015F($M)2009ValueGrowthValueGrowthValueCAAGR'10–'15ValueCommodityBoards$6,33625.4%$7,9433.4%$8,2144.2%$9,735Multilayer$16,76330.4%$21,8604.6%$22,8755.3%$28,234MicroviaBoards$5,45616.8%$6,37415.7%$7,37610.6%$10,530PackagingSubstrates$5,91137.1%$8,1027.3%$8,6956.7%$11,204FlexCircuits$